Some scenarios that would be pretty equal according to the Drafttek trade chart.
The Bucs may not see a player who just jumps out at them as a lock pick if they fall to them. Is there a no brainer player who will be there at 19? The Bucs may want to load up on Day 2 picks.
Teams may want to move up to get Dart or one of the DTs, OTs or WRs who will be falling into that range of 19. Pick 19 could be in demand.
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Bucs-Bears
Bucs get Rd. 2 pick 39, Rd 2 Pick 41
Bears get Rd 1 pick 19, Rd 4 pick 121
This would be quite a drop down for the Bucs, but those are fairly early round 2 picks and that could be a sweet spot for this draft. The Bears could be interested in a premium left tackle.
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Bucs-Cleveland
Bucs get Rd 2 pick 33, Rd 3 pick 67 and Rd 4 pick 104
Cleveland gets Rd. 1 pick 19 and Rd 4 pick 121
If the Browns don't want to take Sanders at 2, they could trade up to get a shot at Sanders if he drops or Dart. If you want a QB you better jump ahead of Pittsburg at 21. The Bucs would get an extra pick at the top of the 3rd and an upgrade in the 4th. Don't love it, because it's a big drop down for what we'd be getting. But its fair by the trade chart.
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Bucs-Houston
Bucs get Rd 1 pick 25 and Round 3 pick 89.
Houston gets Rd 1 pick 19.
Houston has picks and may want to get a boost at OT or DT and be willing to trade their 3rd rounder to get a premium player. The Bucs would get an extra Day 2 pick.
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Bucs- Buffalo
Bucs get Rd 1 pick 30 and Round 2 pick 62
Buffalo gets Rd 1 pick 19 and Rd 5 pick 157.
The Bucs would get that extra 2nd round pick albeit late in the round. Buffalo has extra picks on a team that perhaps and may want to upgrade at OT.
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Bucs- NYGiants
The Bucs get Rd 2 pick 34 and Round 3 pick 65 Rd 4 pick 105
Giants get Rd 1 pick 19 and Rd 5 pick 157.
Bucs could repackage that 4th round to move back up somewhere.
I'm all for trading but if McMillan somehow falls (he won't) then I'd trade up
Bowles "We don't have a lot of depth. I mean, that's crystal clear. We don't have a lot of depth," stated Bowles. "We hope to address that at some point in the draft as well, obviously, and we didn't sign many in free agency." IMO the Bucs aren't talking about 6th and 7th round special teamers and camp bodies. They need Day 2 types. These are guys who could really make an impact this year and be starters down the road. The Bears trade would give them a total of three 2nd round picks, two of them pretty high up in the round. The Buffalo trade gets us an extra 2nd for moving down in the first.I'm all for trading but if McMillan somehow falls (he won't) then I'd trade up
The Buffalo trade gets us an extra 2nd for moving down in the first.
I mocked 2 of your scenarios on PFF. None were forced trades, other team was the initiator. Draft board was set on neutral (between public and PFF grade):
Bucs Trade w/ NYG
Bucs receive:
R2 - 34
R3 - 65
R3 - 99
R4 - 105
NYG receive:
R1 - 19
R5 - 157
2026 - R4
Bucs Picks:
R2 (34) - Nic Scourton (EDGE)
R2 (53) - Demetrius Knight Jr. (LB)
R3 (65) - Shemar Turner (DL)
R3 (84) - Elijah Roberts (EDGE)
R3 (99) - Dorian Strong (CB)
R4 (105) - Jacob Parrish (CB)
R4 (121) - Nohl Williams (CB)
R7 (235) - RJ Mickens (S)
Bucs Trade w/ CLV
Bucs receive:
R2 - 33
R3 - 67
R3 - 94
R4 - 104
Clv receives:
R1 - 19
R4 - 121
2026 - R4
Bucs Picks:
R2 (33) - James Pearce Jr. (EDGE)
R2 (53) - Demetrius Knight Jr. (LB)
R3 (67) - Carson Schwesinger (LB)
R3 (84) - Vernon Broughton (DL)
R3 (94) - Dorian Strong (CB)
R4 (104) - Jacob Parrish (CB)
R5 (157) - Jake Briningstool (TE)
R7 (235) - RJ Mickens (S)
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I don't think Jason moves down if EZ is available at #19.
I think that's their guy.
I would agree that if any player is "their guy" it would be Ezieraku. There are mocks that have him going well before 19 and others that have him going in the 2nd round. Walter Football has him going to the Bucs... at pick 53. CBS ranks him 42nd best prospect. PFF ranks him 16th on the big board but states that he's a good prospect to draft on Day 2. As much as the Bucs like him I don't know if he should be as high as 19.
I don't know if the Bucs can collect that number of picks as some of those simulated drafts would indicate.
I don't know if the Bucs can collect that number of picks as some of those simulated drafts would indicate.
Buffalo gave up multiple 2nd rounders to move up 5 spots in the first round with us in 2018.
Again, I don't think they're moving.
I'm guessing it'll go EDGE, ILB, then maybe CB or DL.
Perhaps not. It takes two to tango and you can't trade down if nobody gives you a legitimate offer. But I feel like that 19th spot will be in demand. If the Bucs do want to move down, I think they'll get the offer to make it happen. But he's never traded down more than the six spots when he traded from 27 to 33 in 2022.I don't know if the Bucs can collect that number of picks as some of those simulated drafts would indicate.
Buffalo gave up multiple 2nd rounders to move up 5 spots in the first round with us in 2018.
Again, I don't think they're moving.
I'm guessing it'll go EDGE, ILB, then maybe CB or DL.
I'm not attuned with the 2nd tier edge rushers this year so take this with a grain of salt... But I'm not really interested in another fucking below average reach in the early/mid second round for a DE that will get us 5 sacks over 2 years.
Would rather just get good LBs, DT depth, CB depth, or starting safety. Ie - I'd rather have a bunch of depth them swing and miss again at edge
It's definitely a hit or miss position. We drafted Diaby in the 3rd round and JTS in the first. If their guy is sitting, there at 19 I'm sure they'll run to the podium. But is edge rusher going to fit the bill? The Bucs aren't going to overdraft a guy who doesn't belong at that pick. Licht will take a player where they belong and not sooner. If they want a specific guy Licht could maneuver to where he thinks he should be taken if he can get a trade partner. Which edge is going to be there at 19 and really deserves to be taken in that spot?I'm not attuned with the 2nd tier edge rushers this year so take this with a grain of salt... But I'm not really interested in another fucking below average reach in the early/mid second round for a DE that will get us 5 sacks over 2 years.
Would rather just get good LBs, DT depth, CB depth, or starting safety. Ie - I'd rather have a bunch of depth them swing and miss again at edge
The only guy who seems to have the "it" factor is Ezieruaku and so the question is whether he's really a 1st round level talent.
Licht will take a player where they belong and not sooner.
Roberto Aguayo and I can give you several examples of this not being accurate.
Aguayo was an inexplicable brain fart that Licht even today probably hasn't fully explained his thought process on that. Not a good example because it was almost a decade ago and Licht has evolved since then. We know that Licht makes a concerted effort not to get caught with his pants down on draft day needing to fill a position right away. And this year they have a lot of needs for depth and future starters, but not a desperate need to fill any particular 2025 starting position.Licht will take a player where they belong and not sooner.
Roberto Aguayo and I can give you several examples of this not being accurate.
I don't think Licht or probably any GM wants to move out of a position in the first round without having a plan for what player they will be picking, and that's why Licht has never moved down more than the six spots. But he was ever going to just throw caution to the wind and move down a good dozen spots or so this would be a year to do it because he needs to fill a lot of depth spots and Day 2 is a good time to do that. I don't think he wants to flood the team with Day 3 players and UDFAs and see what floats like he did last year. I rather think he'd like to get a good handful of future starters from the 2nd to 4th rounds who can come in and make a difference in 2025 and not just play special teams. But what do I know that's just speculation of course I could be totally off on that. But that's just how I think it shapes up.
Position wise, if anything Licht will keep big uglies on his radar. And there could be a surprise pick of a big defensive tackle in that first round. And if any starting position is a "need" position, it's safety apparently. If the Bucs truly don't want to move Tykee Smith to that position, then they have a hole there. They could take Emmanwori or Starks and plug them right into the starting lineup couldn't they? Edge is just one of several positions where they could go with that first round pick.
Bowles emphasizes that he wants more depth but will GM Licht agree with trading down?
Licht's job is to construct a roster under salary cap constraints for 2025 and beyond. Bowles job is to pick out the best players for the final roster for this season.
Trading down outside of the first means you need to seriously pick up a bounty of draft picks to miss out on the fifth year option. A fifth year option on an edge or CB is huge money lost as it is cap savings big time if that draft prospect performs at a high level.
Thats a good point. That has to be on his mind at any time but this year especially as he tries to resign Goedeke and McCollum. Both of those guys were success stories and now the Bucs will have to pay the piper. There is still a lot of room for moving down to pick up an extra Day 2 pick and still stay in Round 1.A fifth year option on an edge or CB is huge money lost as it is cap savings big time if that draft prospect performs at a high level.
Not a good example because it was almost a decade ago and Licht has evolved since then.
First, lolz @ "not a good example". It's a perfect example to contradict the "Licht will take a player where they belong and not sooner" nonsense.
Second, there are multiple other examples of Licht reaching on players - some of whom even worked out. Using the Consensus Big Board, here are others from just the first three rounds:
2024: Tykee Smith - 89th selection, #132 on Consensus Big Board
2023: YaYa Diaby - 82nd selection, #112 on Consensus Big Board
2022: Luke Goedeke - 57th selection, #107 on Consensus Big Board
Rachaad White - 91st selection, #121 on Consensus Big Board
2021: Robert Hainsey - 95th selection, #141 on Consensus Big Board
2020: Ke'Shawn Vaughn - 76th selection, #146 on Consensus Big Board
2019: Sean Murphy-Bunting - 39th selection, #81st on Consensus Big Board
2018: MJ Stewart - 53rd selection, #111 on Consensus Big Board
2017: Justin Evans - 50th selection, #79th on Consensus Big Board
2016: Roberto Aguayo - 59th selection, #155 on Consensus Big Board
In summation, Jason Licht will definitely take a player sooner than they should be drafted - and that hasn't always been a bad thing.
Licht will definitely take a player sooner than they should be drafted - and that hasn't always been a bad thing.
BPA
