1) https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/lsu-creeper-simulated-pressure-dave-aranda-nflpass-rush-coverage
Talks about how coverage success correlates more with defensive success than pass rush (although pass rush is more consistent):
“Pass blocking is much more consistent from week-to-week than pass rushing,” Burke said on Bill Barnwell’s podcast last month. “So, pass rushing success has a lot to do with who you’re playing against and pass blocking has more to do with how good you are yourself.”
It then goes to discuss ways to get Dick Lebeau's "safe pressure". Than answer? The "creeper":
The concept of a creeper — also referred to as a “simulated pressure” depending which coach you’re talking to — is not too different from the one behind the zone blitz: You have the traditional “fire zone” pattern of a blitz, with second- and third-level defenders replacing traditional rushers in the pass rush, but instead of dropping only six to defend the pass, leaving a void in coverage, you don’t send the fifth rusher and keep seven in coverage.
“You used to run a [Cover 0] blitz — send six guys — to get the one-on-one with the running back. Well in a simulated pressure or creeper, you get that same one-on-one by giving the presentation or illusion that they’re all coming or all could come.”
So the goal isn’t really to create a free rusher — though that’s always nice — but to create favorable matchups for specific players.
“That’s the thing these simulated pressures do,” Aranda told X&O Lab. “You’re not overloading a protection, you’re stressing it. You’re getting the right one-on-one’s … You get the pressure with the guy that you want for the guy you want it against.”
Hew then discusses teams that have been using this (including Rex Ryan back in 2010). The Ravens stand out and the Patriots have apparently been running more of it. This is also more of what the Panthers are moving to as well.
I also wonder if we'll see it from the Bucs as it requires that more flexible personnel.
Lots of gamefilm GIFs here that are fun to watch.
This is a study in line with this analysis from Ben Baldwin of The Athletic Seattle, which found that teams with the better passing EPA in a game won 83% of the time, as contrasted with teams with the higher rushing EPA in a game winning just 60% of the time.
So how do you more effectively play the pass while still being stout ENOUGH against the run? The article argues for the 3-3-3. Apparently this is the "Air Raid Killer" and involves 3 DL, 3LB, and 3 safeties. It seems like a 3-3-5 Big Nickel (thus a joker safety).
And this is the conclusion:
Recently the trend was to make 4-2-5 the base defense in the NFL, given how often teams utilized 11 offensive personnel on offense. But these recent acquisitions, plus the history of how Belichick used sub packages with three man fronts, has me believing that we will see more of these 3-3-5 and 3-2-6 looks in the year ahead as New England’s base defense. Teams using this approach can still be gap sound up front to stop the run, but if stopping the pass is what teams need to do - and the numbers bear that out - this approach might make the most sense for a defense going forward. Despite some misgivings about the defensive approach in the Big 12, the future of defensive football might be found there as well.
