That 7.5 is such a good number by Vegas. They are the best. So their thinking high-end in wins is about 9 and low end is about 6.
I’d say we'll be favored in a handful of games. Only non-divisional away game might be the giants, but that’s 50/50. Only non-divisional home games could be Washington and Vegas, but those are 50/50 as well.
And then I give us 2 or 3 divisional games we’ll be favored in. So around 5 or 6 total.
So you think Vegas is back on track this year? Vegas is usually pretty good, but they screwed the pooch the last two years. The last time they missed this bad was 2004, 20 years ago, they were off by 2.9 games. What gives you confidence that they have figured it out this time?That 7.5 is such a good number by Vegas. They are the best.
@catherder - it’s the law of averages. There are too many factors for just one game, so imagine how many more for a whole season. But over time Vegas gets it pretty close to right.
I’m as big of a Bucs fan as has been around since they started, but I’m always a realist. What is your win total number?
That 7.5 is such a good number by Vegas.
It really is when you think about it.
That 7.5 is such a good number by Vegas. They are the best. So their thinking high-end in wins is about 9 and low end is about 6.
I’d say we'll be favored in a handful of games. Only non-divisional away game might be the giants, but that’s 50/50. Only non-divisional home games could be Washington and Vegas, but those are 50/50 as well.
And then I give us 2 or 3 divisional games we’ll be favored in. So around 5 or 6 total.
Eh, I don't know about that.
I probably should check a couple other sportsbooks before posting this, but FanDuel has the vig for the Under at +115 or so; basically they're trying to tease people into taking the under. And the vig for the Over is (or was a few days ago) set at -145(?), so they're basically telling you that they think TB will win at least 8 games.
Again, I haven't checked another book, and I use FD a lot because they generally post the sloppiest vigs ime, so maybe this is just another case of having the ole FD blinders on and not having all the information because I didn't bother to check up on it.
To me, it looks like Vegas is hedging here with TB, as if they just aren't certain what they're looking at. Which makes sense, considering that LAC doesn't have any starting WRs at the moment and their starting TE is a guy that never saw more than 3 targets/gm, never caught over 40 yds/gm and has just a single TD to his credit from last season.
Kind of the same situation with PHI. I don't think Vegas is sure what to expect from them, though they have their line at 10.5 Ws, but the vig seems to indicate they think they'll go under. Ditto DET.
EDIT: Sorry LAC TE W. Dissly has a single 46 yd game from his 2023 season.
I think that 6 to 9 games, for a team with a QB that only has one season, another new OC, and no running game…facing a brutal schedule… is basically a “pick-em” rating.
Theyre not measuring heart, and theyre not even taking last season into consideration. It’s finding sucker bets by estimating gambling odds, for a team that a large portion of the country doesn’t care about, before the spring.
It's also good to remember that Vegas is very conservative in their estimations. They don't adjust quickly to new information or trends. They'll just keep pounding the most conservative projections. And tbf, they're right a large percentage of the time. But they'll also massively whiff a few games or teams or whatever because of it.
I'd take the over on that number, but it's too soon for me to make a prediction and Vegas's prediction is only preliminary as well. My point is that Vegas has lost a little bit of credibility after the last couple years when they've been off by 2.5 and 3 games in the last two seasons. If they were playing darts they would have missed the board and hit the wall. And there wasn't any major injuries or earthquakes or anything that you could say "Well Vegas could have never guessed that!" They just didn't know because they don't have a crystal ball and they don't have any knowledge about the team that the ham and egger posters on this board don't have.@catherder - it’s the law of averages. There are too many factors for just one game, so imagine how many more for a whole season. But over time Vegas gets it pretty close to right.
I’m as big of a Bucs fan as has been around since they started, but I’m always a realist. What is your win total number?
The only question is how objective can you be as a Bucs fan? And that can go in the negative direction as well as positive. Some fans are Negative Nellies all the time. Many make homer predictions. I think any knowledgable fan can make a prediction that is just as dependable as Vegas, but can you take the homer or Negative Nellie out of it? You may try to be objective and overcompensate to the negative side.
Just for giggles, Vegas has consistently been way off about LAC for several years now. They had the Chargers winning 9.5 games last season; they won 5. In 2021, they were off by 1.5 games. I don't remember all the lines anymore, but what I do remember is that the 2022 season was the only time in the last half-dozen or so seasons that Vegas was within a W of being right about LAC. Mostly, they've been off by at least 1.5-2 games every year. I've made a decent amount of $$$ betting the Under for LAC every year for a little while now.
Ftr, I was never betting against Herbert. Or the team. I've always had a decent level of respect for Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, Bosa, D. James and so forth; they've had plenty of high-end talent over the last decade or so. More than enough to earn a playoff spot every season.
I was always betting against their coaching staff. Vegas never seemed to take that factor into account. On the other hand, we saw Vegas weight their projections heavily in NE/Belichick's favor for a couple seasons after Brady left.
My favorite was the line they put out for the Bucs vs. Chiefs SB.
Tampa bent them over backwards so bad, Jackson and Brittany were crying in the Tik Tok videos.
At the very least, Kermit and Travis Swift got to see the GOATs at their respective positions kick their dicks in the dirt on the biggest stage.
My favorite was the line they put out for the Bucs vs. Chiefs SB.
Tampa bent them over backwards so bad, Jackson and Brittany were crying in the Tik Tok videos.
At the very least, Kermit and Travis Swift got to see the GOATs at their respective positions kick their dicks in the dirt on the biggest stage.
Lol. Oh hunny. That's all you got? Come on now, you must have something better than that. I mean, how long did that take you to think up? Hopefully not more than a week. Certainly that can't be the extent of your intelligence after FOUR YEARS.
Let me educate you, my friend. Before HT of that game, every fan from HOU, CLE, BUF, CIN, TEN, DEN, LVR, LAC, and NE plus a few others came crashing into CP slinging every zinger they could think of. And they kept it up for weeks. There were so many that after a while we ranked them by creativity. Unfortunately, your little snipe here wouldn't make the top-200, sweetheart.
If you think you're going to get under my skin about a game that happened 4 years ago, you're going to have to try A LOT harder than that, lol. And I welcome you to try. Surely you have the intelligence to come up with something I haven't read/heard before. I look forward to your next attempt(s), donkey. Don't disappoint me, lol.
Feel like from a buc fan perspective the expectations are playoffs cause they just were there and advanced a round. Honestly should be building off of that because pretty much have the same team. I get it tho. Things can change and they could take a step back. Injuries happen. I'd say nothing would be surprising as a buc fan. Feel like we never know quite what we're in for. This team should be better tho and fun to watch. They were last year.
If you think you're going to get under my skin about a game that happened 4 years ago, you're going to have to try A LOT harder than that, lol.
Sorry, ma’am.
My apologies for triggering that response.
If you think you're going to get under my skin about a game that happened 4 years ago, you're going to have to try A LOT harder than that, lol.
Sorry, ma’am.
My apologies for triggering that response.
Lol, that's what I thought. Wit isn't your strong suit, is it?
Tapout accepted.
