Yeah, the fact that Vita will be out will change the dynamic a lot…and we’re not sure who we get back in the secondary, means I’m not looking for a blowout…just a win…but I sure HOPE for a blowout!
If we can get Goedeke back, that would be a game-changer for the offense.
vea may actually play somehow. Read he’s day to day at this point, grade 2 sprain.
got lucky! Looked much worse.
At the same time no need to rush him back. But if he feels he can go & it won’t get worse obviously we could use him.
absolutely! if we win 2:0 I‘m fine with that
The Lions game was a statement game. The Broncos game is too, albeit a very different type of statement game.
Can we win when we should and especially after a big win? or, do we play DOWN to the level of the competition?
Seems like in today’s NFL the obvious never seems to play out.
If the Bucs win on Sunday by 1 stinkin point, I will be happy. Get us to 11 gentlemen!!
Bowles
“You try to move on from [Sunday’s win,]” Bowles told the Buccaneers Radio Network. “With young guys, it’s harder to handle success than it is failure. So, keeping them grounded and making sure we keep doing the little things for us to get better is what we stress and what’s important for us.”
Bowles
“You try to move on from [Sunday’s win,]” Bowles told the Buccaneers Radio Network. “With young guys, it’s harder to handle success than it is failure. So, keeping them grounded and making sure we keep doing the little things for us to get better is what we stress and what’s important for us.”
totally agree
Quick look at DEN from an AFC-W fan perspective:
The strength of the Broncos has been on defense the last couple seasons, particularly their secondary. Surtain II is their lockdown corner, and will probably follow Evans as much as possible, according to several of the Broncos podcasters. But Moss, on the other side, is starting to make a name for himself as well and will likely look after Godwin as much as he's able. That's also per most Denver podcasters. Obviously, this is the real matchup to look at, as Baker has made it clear so far that Godwin is his security blanket when 3rd downs need to be converted. It will be interesting to see how Coen moves those guys around the formations, trying to get Surtain/Moss to make mental mistakes that could lead to blown coverages. I would look for that relatively early.
DEN also has a good DE in Zach Allen, but he's no Aiden Hutchinson. But it's the middle of their DL along with their LBs that are their Achilles' heel. On tape, they've been getting blown off the line regularly, and their LB have been a liability both vs. the run and in coverage. In fact, DEN currently is giving up 143 yds/gm on the ground, which in context, was exactly as many yards as the worst run defense in the league in 2023 (ARI). Coen needs to be able to run against this struggling run defense, and I think he will. I wouldn't be surprised to see TB run as many as 30+ times in this one.
TeamRankings link for reference:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/
Statistically, DEN is only giving up 19.5 pts/gm, but they played a pretty rusty SEA team in Week 1 that gifted DEN a pair of safeties and a first-drive INT and still couldn't close the deal, and a toothless PIT offense that has just one offensive TD to their credit so far.
On offense, DEN is really bottom of the barrel. Their rushing attack is led by their Rookie QB, with 9 carries for 60 yards. Their lead RB has just 40 yds/19 carries (2.1yds/carry). This makes them 27th in the league. However, that's with Nix's 60 yds rushing. Take that out, and DEN has just 103 yds rushing among their RBs, good for 31st.
Incredibly, their passing attack is worse. Nix has thrown for just 384 yds on 46 completions (59.7% cmp%), for a 5yds/Att average, 0 TDs and 4 INTS. And 50 yds came on a trick play. At this rate, Nix will finish the season with about 3,400 yds, 0 TDs and 34 INTs, lol. Obviously, that won't happen, but just wow.
Bo Nix's stats, pr PFR:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NixxBo00.htm
Bo NIx's stats, per ESPN:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/4426338/bo-nix
Nix's passing chart grid:
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/bo-nix/NIX118212
The short version: Around 70% of Nix's passes are within 5 yds of the LoS. Of the passes that he's thrown beyond 5 yds, he's competed just 30% of them. Beyond 10 yds he's completed 5-of-24 attempts and 4 INTs for a scintillating 21% completion%. This is the worst passing performance by a QB in the last 15 years, iirc
On tape, he's been consistently inaccurate and late throwing beyond 10 yards. He looks uncomfortable and unsure of what he's seeing downfield, and frequently dismisses his first read in a fraction of a second and then finds his checkdown. He is not getting through his reads/progressions even with clean pockets. He's got happy feet and drifts in the pocket, throws off his back foot (needs his lower body to throw with good velocity, doesn't have the arm strength to throw off his backfoot or even flat-footed) and leans to his left on many throws, leading, imo, to his inaccuracy issues. Being late is probably him just not believing his lying eyes. The combination is leading to an inability to complete passes over the middle, particularly in the intermediate zones between 10-15 yds downfield, as well as the INTs.
Due to their inefficiency running the ball and their utter ineptitude passing, DEN through two games is scoring just 13 pts/gm in 2024.
Bottom line, DEN has a good pass defense, and not much of anything else, offensively or defensively. The one thing I'd look out for, were I Todd Bowles, is the signature Sean Payton trick play or two. Nix's deepest pass so far came on a trick play (49 yds?), and he knows he'll need some trickery to be competitive in this one.
For TB:
On defense:
This is about the simplest gameplan imaginable: stuff the run and make Nix throw downfield to beat TB. I'd expect a healthy dose of run blitzes, a lot of simulated blitzing to confuse Nix, a few sacks, and a few great opportunities to get some INTs.
On Offense:
Because of that probable heavy run bias mentioned above, I wouldn't expect to see Baker throw more than 15-20-odd times, so it might look like a subpar day statistically for the Bucs passing offense. I'd expect a fairly vanilla offensive gameplan that establishes the run, protects Baker, and chews up clock. Basically, TB needs to play smart football, don't turn the ball over and establish a credible rushing attack, Bucs win by two scores. It just won't be high scoring.
I think TB is pretty beat up from playing what amounted to a playoff game a week ago against a Super Bowl contending team, so my guess is that TB is pretty sore and exhausted, mentally and physically. They might come out a little flat early and may have a very utilitarian gameplan offensively. All of that might make for a low-scoring game overall, but I expect TB will be in control early and the outcome should never really be in serious doubt. All they have to do is run the ball effectively, play relatively clean/smart football, don't turn the ball over, and they win.
I'm traditionally terrible at picking scores, but I'd guess something like 24-12, TB wins going away in a 2nd half snoozefest. hopefully without incurring any more injuries to key players. And with 100+yds rushing, without Baker's contributions this time.
Bonus: It'll be interesting to see if TB can consistently block Allen; if they can, Cade Otton might end up having himself a banner-type day. It would make sense, considering DEN's issues at LB. Even if that doesn't pan out, I expect to see White/Bucky get a lot of work in the short passing game via screens, angles routes, etc.
LFB
Great write up. Thanks for posting
If that is their defense this should be a heavy RB, TE and 3rd receiver game
Denver lost to two competitive games to solid, not great teams in Seattle and Pittsburg. Denver didn't get blown out either time. We do have a better offense than both of those teams, but still Denver is 0-2. They'll be desperate for a win. I'm just not buying the blowout talk. I'm going to say the Bucs win, but I'll take the under. Bucs 23 Broncos 17.
From PFT-
Report: Steelers cornerbacks laughed about limited playbook for Bo Nix. Via USA Today by way of Steelers Depot with a left turn at Albuquerque, James Palmer recently said on Steve Smith’s podcast that the Steelers believed Nix had a very limited menu of available plays.
“I’m talking to the Steelers corners and they’re sitting there laughing in the corner going, ‘We knew the playbook was this big,’” Palmer said, making a gesture with his fingers indicating smallness. “‘We know they weren’t going to take any shots, and we know what he likes to do. They’re going to make it easy on him to go here and here, and that’s all we had to worry about.’”
I am not seeing the crushing if Goedke can't go again.
Benitto, Cooper and Ellis can do enough pressure to slow down the Bucs offense. The key is the Bucs defense stopping the Broncos offense enough where the Broncos defense wears out trying to defend Godwin, Evans, McMillan, White, etc on multiple drives.
Our scheming OC better find a way to scheme it so one player doesn't get 4.5 sacks again.I am not seeing the crushing if Goedke can't go again.
Benitto, Cooper and Ellis can do enough pressure to slow down the Bucs offense. The key is the Bucs defense stopping the Broncos offense enough where the Broncos defense wears out trying to defend Godwin, Evans, McMillan, White, etc on multiple drives.
Hope to get the run game going. Can’t have opposing teams feel like the Lions:
”Caught by NFL Films cameras, Lions defensive line coach Terrell Williams appeared to openly mocked the Bucs’ run game to his players right after Mayfield ran in a quarterback draw from 11 yards out.
“They got no f***ing run game,” Williams said. He added the only way the Bucs can run the ball is when Mayfield scrambles.”
7-0 this is why we need to crush the broncos
