Here, I’ll break down each team’s best opportunities for victory as the Bucs prepare for their upcoming matchup.
BUCS WIN IF
Bucs on Offense:
Despite injuries sidelining starters like Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin, the Bucs have the talent to score against any defense. While we can’t truly replace a Tristan Wirfs at left tackle, this offense is designed to get the ball out of quarterback, Baker Mayfield’s hands quickly. Our linemen aren’t typically asked to hold off pass rushers for long, which should help Charlie Heck manage the pressure of stepping in for an All-Pro.
Losing Chris Godwin, our second-best wide receiver in franchise history, will be a challenge, but we’re fortunate to have the best in Mike Evans, along with rookie Emeka Egbuka and a solid group of reserves like Sterling Shepherd, Tez Johnson, and Ryan Miller to fill the gaps. The Bucs may need them all to play a role this weekend.
New Offensive Coordinator Josh Grizzard needs to mix up his play-calling early. The Bucs perform better when playing with a lead, so it’s crucial to set Heck and the offensive line up for success by allowing them to pass protect on first downs when the defense is expecting a run. Avoiding long third downs will be key (don’t need to put Heck on an island); we need to open up the run game by first establishing the passing game.
Bucs on Defense:
I’ll repeat my mantra: If we consistently bring 5 or 6 on first down to stop the run while playing soft zone coverage behind, the Falcons will exploit us with passes down the middle. Penix excels at passing between the hash marks, and if he has time, he’ll find open receivers.
Coach Todd Bowles has hinted at a more enlightened defensive approach this offseason, which I hope translates to mixing in more four-man rushes and man-to-man coverage. With the addition of OLB Haason Reddick and rookie corners Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, we have the personnel to improve. Our defense must step up; being ranked 29th in the league against the pass last year won’t cut it if we want to do more than win a weak division.
Bowles shouldn’t abandon blitz packages, but incorporating more man-to-man and generating pressure with a four-man front will help our blitzes be more effective when called. Our blitzes are so common that they have become less surprising. It’s more surprising when we don’t blitz.
While it’s meant to be humorous, there is some truth to this statement. That last thing we want is for Penix to exit this game for any reason, especially considering that his backup, Kurt Cousins, has historically torched the Bucs’ defense.
FALCONS WIN IF
Falcons on Offense:
Over the past five years, our defense has ranked in the top 3 for run defense on first down but is in the bottom third for pass defense. If I were the Falcons, I’d throw every time we line up with our 3-4 personnel on defense on first down. With five players (3 defensive linemen and 2 edge players) that are line of scrimmage players, you have an opportunity to exploit our weaknesses in pass coverage. Let Penix throw on first and second downs while we’re focused on stopping the run. Target the middle of the field; both Kyle Pitts and Kurt Cousins had their best games against us last year. Can Penix capitalize on the same opportunities?
Bijan Robinson will get his opportunities on the ground and through the air.
Falcons on Defense:
The Falcons are looking for immediate contributions from their first-round draft picks, Jalon Walker and James Pearce. While Walker missed much of training camp, Pearce has been noted as unblockable at times. However, rookie pass rushers often face a steep learning curve. They’ll need to seize the opportunity against Bucs’ backup left tackle Charlie Heck.
The Falcons boast one of the best safety duos in the league with Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts. Bates has exceptional range and should be allowed to roam freely. Both safeties are capable of playing man-to-man, which is a rarity. The Falcons need to leverage their strengths and play balanced to avoid giving up big plays. They should focus on making the Bucs work for every yard and see who wins the battle in the trenches.
FINAL WORD
I have confidence in Coach Bowles in season opening games; his Bucs are 3-0 in season openers so far. I trust he has had plenty of time to scheme up for this matchup, and I believe he’ll have a solid game plan when toe hits leather at 1:00 on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Bucs win 27-23!
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