Welcome to the playoff push for the Bucs! In Coach Todd Bowles’ fourth season, making a run during the last five or six games to win the NFC South has become second nature. This year’s run started with last week’s victory against the Cardinals, and we’re hoping this week will be the Bucs’ second win, kicking off a streak that lasts at least until the first game against the Panthers. If we can secure victories in the next three games, we’ll lock in the division title. Let’s dive into this week’s matchup and see what each team needs to do to claim victory.
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: The Bucs are finally starting to resemble their original starting lineup, with players returning to the field. We’ve seen a few offensive linemen come back recently, and the return of Bucky Irving was a sight for sore eyes—he made an immediate impact. Now, let’s hope for a Jalen McMillan sighting this week or next, and maybe even Mike Evans before the Panthers game.
With these returns, we need to see improved offensive execution (and I’m not referring to the type of execution former HC John McKay meant). The Saints had success pressuring Baker Mayfield in their first matchup, with Chase Young beating Tristan Wirfs for two sacks. Speaking of Wirfs, he’s currently questionable for Sunday’s game, so we’ll see if he suits up.
Regardless of Wirfs’ status, I don’t anticipate giving Baker a lot of time to get the ball downfield. I hope to see a focus on the short to intermediate passing game as an extension of the run game, similar to our approach against the Cardinals. I liked the quick screens to Bucky and Rachaad White, and I’m hoping to see more from Emeka Egbuka, who looked more like his early-season self in parts of last week’s game. It would be ideal to lean on Bucky, Rachaad, and Sean Tucker in the second half to run out the clock. Have we done that even once this year? “Throw early, so we can run late.”
Bucs on Defense: The Bucs defense should be able to slow down rookie Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, who still has a long way to go. Bowles’ defensive schemes should give him plenty of challenges.
The Bucs must shut down the Saints’ run game and apply pressure on Shough early. I’m always cautious about Saints receiver Chris Olave, as he has the ability to exploit defensive gaps and put up big numbers. Hopefully, Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield will keep a close watch on him over the top. Is anyone up for Haason Reddick getting 1.5 sacks on Sunday? That would be great!
SAINTS WIN IF…
Saints on Offense: The Saints need to find a way to produce in the running game, which will be tough without Alvin Kamara. They’ll likely lean on Devin Neal or Audric Estime, which is a challenging ask.
Additionally, the Saints must get the ball out of Shough’s hands quickly with quick throws, and move the pocket. As the game progresses, he may have opportunities to take shots to Olave. They must be cautious with turnovers; they could have stayed competitive against the Bucs earlier this season if it weren’t for some unforced errors. Playing smart and protecting the ball will be crucial for keeping the score close. Watch out for Olave to rack up good fantasy numbers.
Saints on Defense: The Saints defense performed well in their first meeting with the Bucs, allowing only one offensive touchdown. They should stick to rushing four, playing cover 2 or 4, and letting Cameron Jordan and Chase Young feast. Baker may force a pass or two into tight windows, and the Saints could capitalize with a critical turnover. Again, the Saints need to keep this game close for as long as possible—anything can happen in the fourth quarter.
FINAL WORD
The Bucs must win this game if they hope to take the division. Any slip-up will only fuel the momentum for the Panthers, and we need to shut down that hope over the next few weeks.
Prediction: Bucs 27, Saints 16
Almost GAME DAY! Go Bucs! Thanks for posting!
Bucs win if mayfield steps on the field and finishes the game
Bucs are ripe for their end of season run and as 8.5 point favorites, I’m hoping for a 2 touchdown type win.
we beat them by 20 in their house but offense was ass
hoping bucky and Godwin continue to show progress
this shouldn’t be much of a game and a huge disappointment if game is close or if a loss, crown Carolina as new champs
There's the small matter of playing Carolina twice. But Carolina could split with us and win the division. I fully expect a split, so whoever is otherwise ahead will be the winner. And so losing to the Saints would indeed have the end result you have mentioned.if a loss, crown Carolina as new champs
The Bucs win if they establish the running game - over 100 yards for Bucky - by getting a lead and running it down their throat in the 2nd half.
The Saints win if they get a turnover or two early, get a lead and the Bucs start to tighten up and get conservative and get a couple three and outs and give the Saints some confidence.
There's the small matter of playing Carolina twice. But Carolina could split with us and win the division. I fully expect a split, so whoever is otherwise ahead will be the winner. And so losing to the Saints would indeed have the end result you have mentioned.if a loss, crown Carolina as new champs
The Bucs win if they establish the running game - over 100 yards for Bucky - by getting a lead and running it down their throat in the 2nd half.
The Saints win if they get a turnover or two early, get a lead and the Bucs start to tighten up and get conservative and get a couple three and outs and give the Saints some confidence.
we are in a situation where we if take care of business at home and beat saints and falcons, we would just need to win 1 Carolina game to win division, the dolphins game won’t matter
Good post. Think big keys will be Goedeke, Irving, and Godwin playing. Justin Reid out for Saints. Reid is one of the consistent pieces of that defense.
Just don't let their lineman/lbs play downhill and run power too often at goalline since they matchup better. Staley does a lot of 2 high with zone but dont let that force us to be scared to throw, they still let the underneath checkdown happens and big plays just stress their inexperienced corners to tackle in space and make decisions. Run those escorts screens with something like dagger in the back of it to make the linebacker pick to cover the escort or dagger behind him.
Feel free to take as many checkdowns as we can cause their linebackers are taught to look for mid level(whats behind them) than underneath. Just keep the chains moving if they dont let us throw deep just go mid/short with a wr running a go to take the safety. Just be brian griese out there when we were 5-0 checkdown checkdown checkdown. Or when peyton played us in indy in 2007 he just checked it down mof short literally on almost every play when we were in tampa 2 for 14-0
Kamara is out. Olave is questionable.
Bucky got baptized this morning.
Gotta lay multiple units on the over for his rushing prop.
Bucky got baptized this morning.
Gotta lay multiple units on the over for his rushing prop.
No Wirfs...
So we gonna fire our special teams or...?
God McCollum sucks
I have a very bad feeling today.
Great first drive for the defensive savior.
