After starting the season 5-1, who would have predicted that this Thursday Night matchup against the Falcons would become a must-win for the Bucs? Since that strong start, the Bucs have struggled, going 2-5. It’s been a true Jekyll and Hyde season. Last week’s loss to the Saints marked my 10-3 record in predicting Bucs games, and it was the most disappointing of my misses. My confidence in picking a Bucs victory is at an all-time low, but let’s break down what each team needs to do to secure the “W”.
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: The Bucs offense has taken major steps backward. Injuries haven’t helped, but there seems to be something deeper at play. Baker Mayfield hasn’t looked sharp throwing the ball downfield for at least five games. My biggest concern at the start of the year with Josh Grizzard’s offense was its vertical dimension, which has never been one of Baker’s strengths.
Ironically, our most effective play this year has been when Baker tucks the ball, escapes trouble, ducks his head, and runs for a first down. It’s sadly become our most consistently successful play. We’re seeing fewer instances where Baker gets into his drop and delivers the ball on time to find an open receiver. I’m not sure if he’s struggling to read the field, lacking confidence in the plays, or if his receivers just aren’t getting open, but he has missed opportunities.
It’s time for Baker to start pushing the ball downfield, as this offense is stuck in neutral. I believe we’ll need to win in a shootout on Thursday night, and starting slowly is not an option. Our success will largely hinge on Baker’s arm. At least having Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back on the field adds some much-needed firepower.
Bucs on Defense: I’m feeling more negative about Bowles’ defense now than I ever have during his tenure in Tampa. The scheme, technical coaching, and talent all seem to be lacking.
Kirk Cousins may not come into this game with any momentum, but the Bucs gave him two get-right games last year. If we thought Saints rookie Tyler Shough hurt us with passes over the middle, just wait… Cousins thrives on that.
I usually have a defensive scheme in mind for these matchups, but right now, I’m at a loss. I don’t see us excelling in any area. Unless our pass rushers step up and apply more pressure, I’m not sure how we slow down the Falcons. Let’s hope Drake London is sidelined; if not, he could be a problem. I’m counting on Antoine Winfield Jr. to step up… aside from the game in New Orleans, he’s been largely invisible. Some of that is due to Bowles placing him in deep middle third coverage. Go ahead and bet the Over in this game.
FALCONS WIN IF…
Falcons on Offense: Bijan Robinson is the Falcons franchise, but for this game, they need to lean on Bucs’-killer, Kirk Cousins. They can put up 20+ points by halftime, if they throw 70% of the time or more on first down.
The Bucs defense struggles against heavy early-down passing, so they should keep it simple and throw the ball. The Falcons can lean on Robinson in the 4th quarter to run down clock and wear the Bucs down in the fourth quarter.
Falcons on Defense: The Falcons should be able to pressure Baker Mayfield. Their rookie edge rushers will eventually get to him if he continues holding the ball too long.
They need to keep Mike Evans in check and contain Bucky Irving. Making the Bucs be patient and work down the field will be key. They should get plenty of support from their offense to give them a chance to pull this game out.
FINAL WORD
I’m all in on a Bucs win today, but it’s purely from the heart. This team is struggling right now and needs a victory to break free from this downward spiral.
Let’s hope the Falcons do what they do best—blow games. We could use one of those moments now more than ever.
Prediction: Bucs 30, Falcons 24
If the offense shows up
Cade Otton doesn’t play ✅
Wirfs and Evans play
I agree with ehinote that the Bucs don't instill much confidence amongst their fans during their current freefall. The two wins during the current 2-5 streak were against the lowly Saints and a squeaker vs the Cardinals. Hardly stiff competition. I'm hoping that the Bucs can back on track tonight vs the Falcons, but it will be SMH bad if they somehow lose another must-win game. We'll see what their made of tonight.
I agree with ehinote that the Bucs don't instill much confidence amongst their fans during their current freefall. The two wins during the current 2-5 streak were against the lowly Saints and a squeaker vs the Cardinals. Hardly stiff competition. I'm hoping that the Bucs can back on track tonight vs the Falcons, but it will be SMH bad if they somehow lose another must-win game. We'll see what their made of tonight.
they lose and the season is just about finished.
If Panthers, off a bye week, beat the Saints who are probably riding high after beating us and due for a let down, we would essentially have to sweep Carolina.
If we both finish 9-8, Carolina would have the tiebreaker.
this game is huge
can't edit for some reason...but meaning if we split and both finish 9-8, Panthers take the division (assuming Bucs lose to Falcons and Carolina beats Saints)
not good
one of the most important games in Bowles Bucs head coaching career
Grizzard made teams pay earlier in the year with posts downfield. Feature EE or Godwin and exploit that. Continue to use all three RBs to throw the Falcons off from going after Mayfield. Play action is the key to slowing down Falcons front seven which relies on speed and aggression.
Defensively, Bucs defense has to man up because zone is making it easy for a Falcons WR group which outside of London is mediocre or worse. Bucs should switch to zone if the field is shortened near the red zone to ensure they can make breaks on any out routes or curls in the flats.
Special teams has to be able to cover kicks better. Field position is making it hard on offense and defense with the way they are playing.
Seems like AWJ is not being used to maximize his strengths. Seems like he's never being brought down in to the box and blitzing anymore. We've seen him create so much chaos in the past and I feel like its almost exclusively playing over the top.
Seems like AWJ is not being used to maximize his strengths. Seems like he's never being brought down in to the box and blitzing anymore. We've seen him create so much chaos in the past and I feel like its almost exclusively playing over the top.
Interested to see what they do tonight with Smith likely out. Will they stick with the more conservative "playing over the top" version AWJ or will they roll the dice and have him step into the down in the box role that Smith was mostly playing.
Such a huge game. Team in a massive funk, jobs on the line, defense in a death spiral facing a QB in his own spiral but who lit the Bucs up over the middle last season. National tv .. star players maybe coming back (too soon)
Agree. The problem is that our defensive middle is bad, and has not been getting better. You’re right about Kirk Cousins fading ability, but if he has no pressure, can he still light up our weak pass defense? No doubt Bowels will be all-in on stopping the run, but that weak secondary (especially the ILB’s), made more weak with the loss of Tykee Smith, is still out there.Such a huge game. Team in a massive funk, jobs on the line, defense in a death spiral facing a QB in his own spiral but who lit the Bucs up over the middle last season. National tv .. star players maybe coming back (too soon)
My hope is that our offense will have enough of an answer to limitvtge amount of time our defense has to be on the field. It could be a shootout, or the Bucs offense can score early and often, and Kirk Cousins could be last his use-by date.
It’s a toss up game for me, and then we have Carolina looming.
I’ll be watching, but I’m not feeling the bounce-back vibes at this point.
Lay money on Bucs over 24.5.
but if he has no pressure, can he still light up our weak pass defense?
i think so. will be a tough game for sure.
We win ugly... That's all I know
Any update on Evans or McMillan?
Player Props I like for tonight:
Cousins over 204.5 pass yds
Robinson over 37.5 rec yds
Mooney over 35.5 rec yds and 2.5 recps
Irving over 60.5 rush yds
Mayfield over 19.5 rush yds
Robinson Evans Irving ATD
