After a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Bengals, the Buccaneers need to come out Sunday and prove they are a team to be reckoned with. There were positives in that loss, and for what it's worth I did pick the Bucs to lose. But being 1-0 in my predictions isn't nearly as fun when the correct pick was a Bucs loss.
The Browns aren't a great team, but this game is not a gimme. Cleveland absolutely circled this game as a potential win when they looked at their schedule. If the Bucs don't play well, the Browns are more than capable of sneaking out of Raymond James Stadium with a victory. Here's how I see both teams setting themselves up for success Sunday.
BUCS WIN IF...
Offense: Ball Security First, Everything Else Second
The Buccaneers must start with ball security. Full stop. I hope Baker Mayfield and every skill player on this offense worked on ball drills every single day this week, because four fumbles against the Bengals simply cannot become a habit. The encouraging thing is that before the fumbling started in Cincinnati, this offense was actually getting somewhere. The running game was working. The quick passing game was clicking. And the motion and play action that Zac Robinson was using was genuinely exciting, very reminiscent of what Liam Coen was doing in 2024, just not quite as smooth yet.
The Browns' defense has some real strength up the middle with Mason Graham at defensive tackle and Carson Schwesinger at middle linebacker. Graham is not a player you can simply overpower. Mixing things up with stretch runs, screen passes, and a well-timed trap or two could keep him off balance and guessing. Play action passes should be able to suck Schwesinger up toward the line of scrimmage just enough to get completions behind him on linebackers.
This needs to be a complete team effort offensively. Show some two-back packages with Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell together. Get the ball to Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Tez Johnson early. Rotate Ted Hurst and a healthy Jalen McMillan into the mix throughout. And Cade Otton has to show up with some reliable hands this week (and maybe gloves too).
Ideally this is a game where we see Irving and Gainwell take over in the fourth quarter with the Bucs protecting a lead and running the clock out. That's the script. Let's hope the team follows it.
Defense: Make Watson Beat You
The Browns are not in a good place at quarterback, and good NFL teams have to win these games. I don't expect the Buccaneers' defense to hold Cleveland under 10 points, but they absolutely should be able to hold them to under or around 20. This is a week where the defensive line needs to show up and show out. Playing with a lead would help.
But I'm not naive enough to think this will be a complete shutdown performance. Browns head coach Todd Monken is an excellent offensive mind, even if he's working with limited talent right now. He will have a plan to attack Bowles' defense, and that always gives me pause. Can the Bucs slow down tight end Harold Fannin Jr.? He's not a superstar, but he is very serviceable. KC Concepcion has genuine talent at receiver. Jerry Jeudy has a history of coming up with huge individual games against quality competition. And Quinshon Judkins can make something out of absolutely nothing on any given play.
This is the NFL. These Browns players want to win too. Our defensive weakness beyond the inability to stop tight ends is when athletes get loose in the open field. If the front seven can keep everything in front of them, get to Deshaun Watson quickly, and tackle with the discipline Bowles emphasized all week in practice, the Bucs defense should do enough to hold Cleveland to around 20 points. That should be enough to win this football game.
BROWNS WIN IF...
Offense: Monken Gets Creative and Watson Doesn't Turn It Over
Todd Monken was the Baltimore Ravens' offensive coordinator the last time we saw him face Todd Bowles' defense in 2024. That was an offense loaded with superstar talent in Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and others. But I distinctly remember moments in that game where Ravens receivers were running so wide open downfield that I genuinely questioned whether the Bucs were playing with nine or ten men. Monken remembers that too. Count on it.
If Monken can get his receivers/tight ends running open down the seams, Deshaun Watson is talented enough to hit them. Monken will be creative getting Judkins and Concepcion into space where they can create after the catch. I can see Judkins making plays out of the backfield as a receiver on designed swing and check-down routes. And Fannin will likely get the customary 60 to 70 yards that every tight end seems to accumulate against Todd Bowles' defense.
The key for Cleveland is simple: Watson cannot turn the ball over and he needs to take what the defense gives him rather than forcing things. If he manages the game cleanly and lets Monken's creativity do the heavy lifting, the Browns give themselves a genuine chance at an upset.
Defense: Catching the Bucs' Offensive Line at the Right Time
The Browns’ defense looked completely lost against Jacksonville in Week 1, falling behind 31-0 before the Jaguars took their foot off the gas entirely. Good news for Cleveland: they aren't facing Liam Coen's offense this week.
The Browns' front seven has a real opportunity to build confidence Sunday. Jared Verse and Mason Graham are both young, talented, and still getting better. And they'll be facing a Buccaneers offensive line that didn't look close to being in sync against the Bengals. I believe the Bucs offensive line will gel as they play more games together over the coming weeks. But the Browns may be catching them at precisely the right moment on that developmental curve.
If Cleveland can generate consistent pressure on Baker Mayfield and slow down the running game, they give themselves a real chance, especially if they can force Baker into any turnovers while he plays with the emotional edge of facing his former team. The Browns' best strategy is to not try to match Baker's emotions and simply let the game come to them. Denzel Ward is legitimately capable of shutting down a receiver, which could make life very difficult for Zac Robinson's passing scheme if Ward takes away our top option.
FINAL WORD
This is the NFL. Every week brings uncertainty. The Bucs need to play a complete, disciplined game to win Sunday, and frankly after what happened in Cincinnati, they owe their home crowd a much better performance than what we saw in Week 1.
Fix the fumbles. Find the pass rush. Take care of business at home.
Prediction: Bucs WIN 30-20
More at www.buccaneerblitz.com
Follow us on Facebook
