Popular (+60% of money) NFL Week 7 bets at MGM Grand
89% on Patriots -7
83% on Lions -5.5
77% on Chargers -1.5
74% on Packers -6.5
66% on Seahawks -3
63% on Giants +7
62% on Raiders +12
62% on Browns -2.5
60% on Cowboys +2
60% on Eagles -2
Line opened at Lions -4.5 and is now up to Lions -6.0
O/U is now at 53 (2nd highest for the week, behind WASH/DAL)
Going to do some deeper dives into the Bucs/Lions matchup, with props.
Right now, my favorite is probably:
Jared Goff OVER 299.5 passing yards at +210. ($500 wins $1,550)
While Goff is only averaging 232 ypg and only one 300+ yard outing this year; his numbers against Todd' defense have been astronomical.
5 games (2019 - 2024):
517 yards
376 yards
353 yards
307 yards
287 yards
Total - 1,840 yards (368 ypg average)
How much do you factor in Vegas odds for where everyone bets and them wanting to tilt it the other way?
Not to be a conspiracy theorist but I've seen some games where everyone takes a team and then the calls just happen to go the other way.
Looking at those lines I wanna go against the Patriots & Lions but maybe I'm just being a contrarion.
Goff bet could be super juicy but our run defense has also regressed so I'm thinking Montgomery ATD.
Another one that I'm a fan of is:
Sam LaPorta ATD at +155 ($500 wins $1,275)
Inside the 10, he has a 22% target rate that has resulted in a few TD's over the past 3 games.
He'll have ideal matchups against our LB's.
And, our defense is one of the worst in the league in Red Zone Scoring Percentage (28th in the league, 68.8% TD's). It's actually gotten worse every year for the last 3 years.
This also makes Amaron a good ATD bet, as he has a 50% target percentage from inside the 10, with 7 targets, 6 receptions, and 5 TD's.
Also, if you fancy a LaPorta parlay:
ATD, OVER 49.5 yards receiving, and OVER 4.5 receptions is currently at +260 ($500 wins $1,800).
Jameson Williams OVER 22.5 - Longest Reception at -115 (.5 unit - $250 wins $467.39)
He's hit this 50% of his games.
How much do you factor in Vegas odds for where everyone bets and them wanting to tilt it the other way?
Not to be a conspiracy theorist but I've seen some games where everyone takes a team and then the calls just happen to go the other way.
Looking at those lines I wanna go against the Patriots & Lions but maybe I'm just being a contrarion.
Goff bet could be super juicy but our run defense has also regressed so I'm thinking Montgomery ATD.
While I factor it in, it doesn't take precedence.
I mean, I knew the line would move for our game, and I'm glad I waited. Definitely taking Tampa and the points.
And, I'm feeling the same about NE.
Montgomery ATD is a good thought.
I saw an interesting play for most games where you take the first half under 24.5 points. Because of the way first half tend to go, it hits on almost 80% of the games because you need 4 TDs, or 3 TDs and 2 FGs.
Typically you have to do the alternate spread on it but not always. It's been working well for me. Parlay 3 of them and you have a solid payout but parlays are for fun but it's not what seasoned betters do.
Another one that I'm a fan of is:
Sam LaPorta ATD at +155 ($500 wins $1,275)
Inside the 10, he has a 22% target rate that has resulted in a few TD's over the past 3 games.
He'll have ideal matchups against our LB's.
And, our defense is one of the worst in the league in Red Zone Scoring Percentage (28th in the league, 68.8% TD's). It's actually gotten worse every year for the last 3 years.
This also makes Amaron a good ATD bet, as he has a 50% target percentage from inside the 10, with 7 targets, 6 receptions, and 5 TD's.
Also, if you fancy a LaPorta parlay:
ATD, OVER 49.5 yards receiving, and OVER 4.5 receptions is currently at +260 ($500 wins $1,800).
It's safe to say Lions will rack up yards and be aggressive. I think ATD for everyone you mentioned (add Gibbs in there but his odds are lame so the payout sucks) will be a fairly good bet.
LaPorta parlay into the Goff yards then add Shepard 3.5+ receptions.
For the games (not saying I'll bet all these) I'm taking
Titans +7 over Patriots with new coach
Chiefs -11.5 (moneyline is free money)
Vikings +1.5 (Hurts will connect with Smith but struggle vs the blitz and Wentz gets his revenge)
Saints +4.5 but I'm avoiding this game for sure
Jets +1.5 because everyone is writing them off. I'm avoiding this game as well but everyone thinks Panthers run with it so I'll take Jets at home.
Browns -2.5 Tua is ass and Browns defense will engulf him (starting them in FF)
Broncos -7 but I'm avoiding this because I don't trust Broncos offense and they play to their opponents
Colts +1.5 they are just the better team and Chargers have too many injuries
Cardinals +7 I actually think Brissett is better than Kyler and Packers struggle to pull away in games so I think Packers win but Cards cover
Washington +1.5 no idea why they are getting points in this. Cowboys are massively overrated and they're favored because Lamb.
Niners -1.5 but I'm avoiding this game. Falcons might have a letdown after a big win but Niners defense is decimated.
Bucs +5.5 good team with points are hard to come by.
Hawks -3 better team at home. I expect Texans to barely breaks 17 points so as long as Darnold protects the ball it's an easy win at home.
Another one that I'm a fan of is:
Sam LaPorta ATD at +155 ($500 wins $1,275)
Inside the 10, he has a 22% target rate that has resulted in a few TD's over the past 3 games.
He'll have ideal matchups against our LB's.
And, our defense is one of the worst in the league in Red Zone Scoring Percentage (28th in the league, 68.8% TD's). It's actually gotten worse every year for the last 3 years.
This also makes Amaron a good ATD bet, as he has a 50% target percentage from inside the 10, with 7 targets, 6 receptions, and 5 TD's.
Also, if you fancy a LaPorta parlay:
ATD, OVER 49.5 yards receiving, and OVER 4.5 receptions is currently at +260 ($500 wins $1,800).
That's the one I've been eyeing. If I were the DET-OC I'd be planning on peppering LaPorta with targets, particularly in the RZ, considering how poorly TB's LBs have been covering this season.
Alright, absolutely killing this morning game.
So, we're going to have some fun with a few parlays today.
Let's post some lottery tickets, fellas.
but parlays are for fun but it's not what seasoned betters do.
Yeah.
I'll mix in a few every week, sometimes more.
But, I'll cut up a unit when doing it (for the most part...last week wasn't the case LOL).
This week, I'll do 3-5 of them, and lay something like .20u - .25u on each.
but parlays are for fun but it's not what seasoned betters do.
Yeah.
I'll mix in a few every week, sometimes more.
But, I'll cut up a unit when doing it (for the most part...last week wasn't the case LOL).
This week, I'll do 3-5 of them, and lay something like .20u - .25u on each.
I like throwing down like 10 bucks and betting on every game. Nothing crazy because the odds are shit
but parlays are for fun but it's not what seasoned betters do.
Yeah.
I'll mix in a few every week, sometimes more.
But, I'll cut up a unit when doing it (for the most part...last week wasn't the case LOL).
This week, I'll do 3-5 of them, and lay something like .20u - .25u on each.
I like throwing down like 10 bucks and betting on every game. Nothing crazy because the odds are shit
I prefer to go with player props vs. multi-game picks for my parlays.
If I do 4 today, I'll go with three that max out at 5 legs, and then do an absolutely bonkers one (10-14 legs).