No score on first drive has been pretty lucrative this year. Parlayed that with no score for Saints on Sunday, which worked out.
I rarely bet on retail odds anymore (ats/ml/or O/U) except one or two times a year when Vegas makes a mistakes pricing a game. Like last week when they set the spread on the NE game at just -7 vs CLE, or DEN -3.5 vs. DAL.
So, this week I found 5 or 6 that Vegas underpriced, which is kind of unusual, but nice for the public. Bet them singly or in a double or even a triple-leg parlay, whatever works.
So, the three most underpriced games are:
IND -3.0 vs, PIT, the Colts are going to win this game by multiple TDs
DET -8.5 vs. MIN, healthy DET @home vs. a Vikes team without a QB or a starting LT, nuff said
NE -5.5 VS. ATL, the Pats will be a two or three-score winner here at home
The next 3 are a little bit riskier, but still significantly underpriced:
DEN +1.5 VS. HOU, pretty sure HOU's win over SF was smoke and mirrors and not substance
KC -1.5 vs. BUF, KC-D plays a ton of man, and BUF doesn't have any WRs that can separate which is why they lost the last game the way they did
LAC -9.5 VS. TEN, it's the Titans. Even the Chargers can't eff this up
Several of these lines are going to move today/tonight, because the sharps will jump on a few of these I imagine, like the IND game, and I've already seen the KC game line move on some sites to 2.5 this morning. It's still a decent value there, all the way up to 6.5 pts, imo. I expect IND/DET/DEN lines to all move significantly, but the IND+DET games are so underpriced I would feel safe even if IND gave up a TD and DET could go as high as 14 pts for me. So there's some time there.
My safety bet for TNF
lamar 225+ yds rushing+passing
flowers 40+yds receiving
M. Andrews 15+yds receiving
Achane 70+yds rushing+receving
Andrews/Henry ATTDS
+209
I rarely bet on retail odds anymore (ats/ml/or O/U) except one or two times a year when Vegas makes a mistakes pricing a game. Like last week when they set the spread on the NE game at just -7 vs CLE, or DEN -3.5 vs. DAL.
So, this week I found 5 or 6 that Vegas underpriced, which is kind of unusual, but nice for the public. Bet them singly or in a double or even a triple-leg parlay, whatever works.
So, the three most underpriced games are:
IND -3.0 vs, PIT, the Colts are going to win this game by multiple TDs
DET -8.5 vs. MIN, healthy DET @home vs. a Vikes team without a QB or a starting LT, nuff said
NE -5.5 VS. ATL, the Pats will be a two or three-score winner here at home
The next 3 are a little bit riskier, but still significantly underpriced:
DEN +1.5 VS. HOU, pretty sure HOU's win over SF was smoke and mirrors and not substance
KC -1.5 vs. BUF, KC-D plays a ton of man, and BUF doesn't have any WRs that can separate which is why they lost the last game the way they did
LAC -9.5 VS. TEN, it's the Titans. Even the Chargers can't eff this up
Several of these lines are going to move today/tonight, because the sharps will jump on a few of these I imagine, like the IND game, and I've already seen the KC game line move on some sites to 2.5 this morning. It's still a decent value there, all the way up to 6.5 pts, imo. I expect IND/DET/DEN lines to all move significantly, but the IND+DET games are so underpriced I would feel safe even if IND gave up a TD and DET could go as high as 14 pts for me. So there's some time there.
Good breakdown here.
My safety bet for TNF
lamar 225+ yds rushing+passing
flowers 40+yds receiving
M. Andrews 15+yds receiving
Achane 70+yds rushing+receving
Andrews/Henry ATTDS
+209
Pulling for ya, bud!
Andrews TD is a wild card
Andrews TD is a wild card
+175 on HR ($500 wins $1,375)
Parlay it with Henry and it's +300 ($500 wins $2,000)
Andrews TD is a wild card
Yah, I hate trying to bet on Andrews because his usage is so inconsistent. But tonight vs. that MIA-D, he should be featured. Should. Won't be surprised in the least if he ends up with 2 rec/11 yds though.
If he were a Buc, he'd be a consistent 6 catch/65 yds/1 TD guy.
Tbh, I rarely put any $$$ on BAL or their players ever. That offense is just too schizo.
Fuck it.
1.0u on Andrews ATD and Henry ATD.
Fuck it.
1.0u on Andrews ATD and Henry ATD.
REALLY want to add a 3rd leg with Achane over 99.5 rush/rec. (+700)
Alas...
Fuck it.
1.0u on Andrews ATD and Henry ATD.
REALLY want to add a 3rd leg with Achane over 99.5 rush/rec. (+700)
Alas...
I took Achane 100+yds rushing+rec, but I'm going to sweat it all game probably, lol
2 minutes into the game, and MIA already has to take a TO. @home.
Andrews TD is a wild card
Yah, I hate trying to bet on Andrews because his usage is so inconsistent. But tonight vs. that MIA-D, he should be featured. Should. Won't be surprised in the least if he ends up with 2 rec/11 yds though.
If he were a Buc, he'd be a consistent 6 catch/65 yds/1 TD guy.
Tbh, I rarely put any $$$ on BAL or their players ever. That offense is just too schizo.
You got it! Twice
I rarely bet on retail odds anymore (ats/ml/or O/U) except one or two times a year when Vegas makes a mistakes pricing a game. Like last week when they set the spread on the NE game at just -7 vs CLE, or DEN -3.5 vs. DAL.
So, this week I found 5 or 6 that Vegas underpriced, which is kind of unusual, but nice for the public. Bet them singly or in a double or even a triple-leg parlay, whatever works.
So, the three most underpriced games are:
IND -3.0 vs, PIT, the Colts are going to win this game by multiple TDs
DET -8.5 vs. MIN, healthy DET @home vs. a Vikes team without a QB or a starting LT, nuff said
NE -5.5 VS. ATL, the Pats will be a two or three-score winner here at home
The next 3 are a little bit riskier, but still significantly underpriced:
DEN +1.5 VS. HOU, pretty sure HOU's win over SF was smoke and mirrors and not substance
KC -1.5 vs. BUF, KC-D plays a ton of man, and BUF doesn't have any WRs that can separate which is why they lost the last game the way they did
LAC -9.5 VS. TEN, it's the Titans. Even the Chargers can't eff this up
Several of these lines are going to move today/tonight, because the sharps will jump on a few of these I imagine, like the IND game, and I've already seen the KC game line move on some sites to 2.5 this morning. It's still a decent value there, all the way up to 6.5 pts, imo. I expect IND/DET/DEN lines to all move significantly, but the IND+DET games are so underpriced I would feel safe even if IND gave up a TD and DET could go as high as 14 pts for me. So there's some time there.
Thanks for this breakdown. I like the three underpriced games.
Maybe parlay those three alone, and then with each of the other three. I just might try that.
I rarely bet on retail odds anymore (ats/ml/or O/U) except one or two times a year when Vegas makes a mistakes pricing a game. Like last week when they set the spread on the NE game at just -7 vs CLE, or DEN -3.5 vs. DAL.
So, this week I found 5 or 6 that Vegas underpriced, which is kind of unusual, but nice for the public. Bet them singly or in a double or even a triple-leg parlay, whatever works.
So, the three most underpriced games are:
IND -3.0 vs, PIT, the Colts are going to win this game by multiple TDs
DET -8.5 vs. MIN, healthy DET @home vs. a Vikes team without a QB or a starting LT, nuff said
NE -5.5 VS. ATL, the Pats will be a two or three-score winner here at home
The next 3 are a little bit riskier, but still significantly underpriced:
DEN +1.5 VS. HOU, pretty sure HOU's win over SF was smoke and mirrors and not substance
KC -1.5 vs. BUF, KC-D plays a ton of man, and BUF doesn't have any WRs that can separate which is why they lost the last game the way they did
LAC -9.5 VS. TEN, it's the Titans. Even the Chargers can't eff this up
Several of these lines are going to move today/tonight, because the sharps will jump on a few of these I imagine, like the IND game, and I've already seen the KC game line move on some sites to 2.5 this morning. It's still a decent value there, all the way up to 6.5 pts, imo. I expect IND/DET/DEN lines to all move significantly, but the IND+DET games are so underpriced I would feel safe even if IND gave up a TD and DET could go as high as 14 pts for me. So there's some time there.
Thanks for this breakdown. I like the three underpriced games.
Maybe parlay those three alone, and then with each of the other three. I just might try that.
Your welcome
Yeah, dropped a U on both parlays. Also a half on all 6. It should be noted that if those odds are correct, then we have about a 13% chance of winning either 3-legger. Which is why I almost never do those. But I just don't think Vegas got those anywhere near correct. We'll see who's right.
Also, even though I didn't include it, the LAR@NOR game even at -14.5 is undervalued. No chance really that NOR covers against LAR. It might not look like a typical 45-9 blowout, maybe something more like 27-7 or whatever but NOR doesn't have a starting caliber QB, no real weapons other than Olave and Kamara, their OL isn't great, their defense ditto, and their coaching doesn't stack up at all vs. McVay and co. i just didn't include it because generally I don't bet spreads over 10 pts in the NFL.