I'm expecting 11-5. New Orleans (in my opinion), has the best roster in the NFL (including front-line and depth). But, Drew Brees (despite his gawdy completion %) is starting to show some struggles in his ability to make throws that are essential. As you guys know, I don't feel the evidence is there to support Brady's loss of ability to make those essential throws. However, there is undoubtedly a case to be made there for Brees. I'm a believer that arm strength is right up there with underwear 40 time in how profoundly it is overrated in projecting NFL success. However, there is a threshold and I think we saw some real signs of Brees teetering on that threshold last year. I expect him to be great still, but there will be tight window throws that have to be made in crunch time and I wonder if he can get them there with the necessary ball placement at this point in his career.
We'll battle New Orleans for 12-4 and the Division crown. If we get derailed, what will it be? Give me your top 5. Here's mine. In order from most likely to least likely...
EDGE DEPTH
This is the biggest threat to our success this year. The best teams in the league get production out of EDGE3 and EDGE4. They run sub and rotate guys in to keep Pass Rushers fresh. And they have beefed up ranks so that if a guy misses 4 weeks (or worse), its not a death spiral for their pass rush.
Right now, we have absolutely nothing behind out top 2. If injuries hit our top 2, it will likely stress our defense enormously. Even without injuries, JPP is another year of wear into his long career and there are a huge number of snaps that will need to be played by guys that have absolutely ZERO resume.
Pass Rush in the most crucial moments of the game not moving the QB off the spot is often the deciding factor of big games. If we don't meet our expectations, that will be the most likely cause.
DAVIS OR DEAN GOING DOWN
We demand a huge amount from our boundary CBs. Davis ascended enormously in the 2nd half of the year and Dean did an extremely good job locking down # 2. Dean's serious injury history is the big concern. SMB struggled big time on the boundary. If one of these guys go down, we're going to have both a problem at boundary CB and a trickle down effect with NCB (where SMB played alright inside and is clearly a high IQ football player so he should likely play better there year 2; the position requires high football IQ).
THE KICKING GAME
Another year, another draft investment, yet_still_kicking concerns. Gay struggled at the end of the year and his fingerprints were on late season losses. He's struggling again in camp...
RUNNING BACK PASS PROTECTION
The only reliable Pass Protector at the RB position we have is Ogunbowale. While not anything nearing good...he's somewhat reliable. McCoy's career is marred with poor Pass Protection results. Jones was terrible last year in his limited time. Vaughn was drafted in the 3rd round allegedly for this (though the metrics don't support this and I saw way too many tech-ugly Pass Pro snaps on tape...against College players) but (a) no offseason, (b) Covid protocol for him and (c) he had a very bad scrimmage (a fumble and a costly whiff in Pass Pro). The odds of him contributing significantly this year are not great.
Every team is a few key whiffs in RB Pass Pro from a Sack > Fumble > Sudden Change or worse.
BRADY INJURY
Outside of the one year, he's been an iron man. The only other time he was taken away from the game was Deflategate and he came back with righteous vengeance to punish Goodell and the League Office for their decision and the collateral narrative of "Brady wins because he's a cheater." Whether its Running Back Pass Protection (above) or something else, this team is absolutely toast without Brady. This isn't the Eagles or Giants of yore. You replace Brady with Gabbert and Vegas puts this team as a 5.5 win team.
