Top-pick QB busts are setbacks, but not like before 
At the head of the 2010 draft class, the last to take advantage of uncapped rookie contracts, Sam Bradford signed a six-year, $78 million deal that included $50 million guaranteed. The Rams traded him to the Eagles this past week. ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE PHOTO By Roy Cummings | Tribune Staff Published: March 14, 2015 at 04:37 PM TAMPA — What if it doesn’t work out?Start with that premise. That whichever quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select with the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft goes bust and never makes it, for whatever reason.What then? 
“Well, it really sets you back, is what it does,’’ said St. Louis Rams coach Jeff Fisher, who knows a thing or two about what happens to teams that miss on a quarterback drafted first overall.Fisher wasn’t their coach at the time, but the Rams spent the first overall pick in the 2010 draft on Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. Then they spent much more.At the head of the final draft class to take advantage of uncapped rookie contracts, Bradford signed a six-year, $78 million deal that included $50 million guaranteed.Five years later, the Rams are still paying.Not literally. Last week, the Rams finally unloaded the oft-injured Bradford and the $12.5 million salary they owed him in 2015 season in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles.But the Rams haven’t made the playoffs in 10 years, and one reason was their financial tie to Bradford. With Bradford eating up an average of $15 million of salary cap space while sitting out most of the past two seasons with a torn left ACL, the Rams struggled to upgrade other areas of the team.“Obviously, you make the commitment with the idea that this guy’s going to be a franchise player and make a difference for you,” Fisher said. “And if that doesn’t happen, it’s difficult.”“Every year you have different needs. And when you have to address the (same) position again a year or two down the road and consecutively, it sets you back in other areas. That’s tough.’’The good news for the Bucs is that it’s nowhere near as tough as it used to be, at least not from a financial standpoint. They have the current collective bargaining agreement to thank for that.When the NFL and the NFL Players Association reworked the CBA four years ago, rookies such as Bradford lost the leverage they once used to secure the type of deals that crippled teams such as the Rams.The new system calls for players at every level of the draft to receive pre-fabricated contracts that are much less lucrative for the players and far more palatable for the teams. When Andrew Luck was drafted first overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012, he signed a four-year, $22.1 million deal that was fully guaranteed, but counts $5.5 million per year against the cap.“It’s more heavily weighted in the club’s favor now,’’ former Bucs general manager Mark Dominik said of the contracts offered to first overall draft picks. “It’s more fair.“And that’s good for a couple of reasons. First, it’s still a big number, but it’s no longer as crippling as it used to be if you miss on the pick. And the other thing is, you don’t have to worry about holdouts anymore. Contractually, everything is set now, including the signing bonuses. So, from the team’s perspective, it’s really just a matter of deciding when you want to pull the trigger and get the kid into your building.’’With quarterbacks, teams want to do that as soon as possible, because the sooner they can get the player’s head into the playbook, the sooner they can play him.And teams always want their high draft picks to play.“No matter the position, you want guys to come in and contribute to your roster,’’ Cleveland Browns general manager Ray Farmer said. “And anytime you don’t get that, it definitely hurts you.’’The Browns may be the best example of that.In 1999, Cleveland was an expansion franchise. With the first overall pick in the draft, the Browns selected Kentucky quarterback Tim Couch. Then they signed him to a seven-year, $50 million contract.Both decisions proved to be mistakes.While compiling a career passer-rating of 75.1, Couch never played up to his lofty draft status. The Browns, who have since drafted seven more quarterbacks, including three in the first round, haven’t recovered.The Oakland Raiders can tell a similar cautionary tale. They drafted Jamarcus Russell out of LSU first overall in 2007, but never got the anticipated return on their $61 million investment.Russell was drummed out of the league after three years. The Raiders, who are riding a 12-year playoff drought, have not had a winning season since.“No one bats 1.000, but you’d like to think you’re going to hit on a higher percentage of your picks at the top of the draft, because that’s a big piece of the puzzle,’’ Farmer said.“And it used to be that you were locked in with that guy because of the financial commitment you had to make. So, the best thing about the new system is that it’s a lot easier to admit a mistake and move on.’’A part of Fisher likely wishes he could have moved on from Bradford a lot sooner. After all, while Bradford sat collecting his millions — roughly $65 million so far — the Rams sunk.They haven’t posted a winning season in 11 years and their 10-year playoff drought is the fourth-longest in the league. Only Buffalo (15 years), Oakland (12) and Cleveland (12) are suffering longer post-season droughts. For Oakland and Cleveland, missing on the quarterback with the first overall pick helped fuel the slump.“It used to be so hard to overcome a mistake with the first overall pick, especially at quarterback, because you had to stay invested in that player for so long,’’ Dominik said.“Nowadays, you’re still going to get hit financially if you miss, but it’s not the same effect financially. It’s not going to cripple you for years the way it used to, and that’s the best thing about it.’’AN INVESTMENT IN NO. 1In 2011, the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement established a rookie salary scale, locking in the terms and amounts of contracts. The money teams must commit to draft picks was significantly reduced. Here are the rookie deals signed by the first overall picks since 2006, with years, total amount, signing bonus and guaranteed money.2014: DE Jadeveon Clowney, Houston, 4 years, $22,272,998, $14,518,544 signing bonus, $22,272,998 guaranteed2013: OT Eric Fisher, Kansas City, 4 years, $22,190.048, $14,518,544 signing bonus, $22,190,048 guaranteed2012: QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis, 4 years, $22,107,998, $14,518,544 signing bonus, $22,107,998 guaranteed 2011: QB Cam Newton, Carolina, 4 years, $22,025,498, $14,518,544 signing bonus, $22,025,498 guaranteed2010: QB Sam Bradford, St. Louis, 6 years, $78,045,000, $17,975,000 signing bonus, $50 million guaranteed2009: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit, 6 years, $78 million, no signing bonus, $41.7 million guaranteed2008: OT Jake Long, Miami, 5 years, $57.5 million, no signing bonus, $30 million guaranteed2007: QB Jamarcus Russell, Oakland, 6 years, $61 million, no signing bonus, $32 million guaranteed2006: DE Mario Williams, Houston, 6 years, $54 million, no signing bonus, $26.5 million guaranteed[email protected](813) 259-7979Twitter: @RCummingsTBO
