In the offseason of 2018, Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht had plans for the Bucs' offensive line. It was an odd direction for the organization. Before we look at what he had done during the FA period of 2018, we need to look at what we had going on in 2017.
LT: Donovan Smith
LG: Kevin Pamphile
C: Ali Marpet
RG: JR Sweezy
RT: Demar Dotson
Marpet started at center in 2017 and looked very good at it in his first year at that new position. He gave Winston something he has not had in his short career - a pocket to step into. Unfortuantely, Marpet got injured on his 11th game. In those 11 games, Marpet had the Bucs' pass blocking unit rated in the top-10 of the league as per Football Outsiders. On that 11th game, RT Dotson also fell to injury. Tampa finished 16th overall in pass blocking at the end of the season.
RG JR Sweezy finally suited for the Bucs after a year long recovery from back surgery. Sweezy was signed over from Seattle as an impressive road grader, but terrible pass blocker. He was slated to be the Bucs' starting LG in 2016. JR's 2017 season for the Bucs was not great as he lacked any bend to get low and drive in the run game. What was surprising was Sweezy had developed pass blocking skills under Koetter's grouping.
Former head coach Dirk Koetter has been known to make an offensive line unit over-perform in pass blocking situations. He has had the ability to teach techniques as well as help disguise deficiencies. What Koetter is in capable of doing is teaching how to run block. A reason you cannot teach run blocking is because it involves a player to have strength, agility, and mobility. If an offensive lineman misses one of those criteria, then it will be a struggle for that player to run block.
In 2015, Koetter gave the Bucs the best run team in a long while and the reason why were his guards that year.
LT: Donovan Smith (Rookie)
LG: Logan Mankins (Pro Bowl player in 2015)
C: Joe Hawley (waiver wire pickup after first week of the NFL season)
RG: Ali Marpet (Rookie)
RT: Gosder Cherilus
Hawley used to be Koetter's former center in Atlanta and he supplanted, then, C Evan Dietrich-Smith. The Bucs picked up Hawley after the first week of the NFL regular season so as to not guarantee his contract as a vested veteran. It did not matter as Hawley won the starting position once he got the shot. I want to emphasize that Hawley was a waiver wire pickup that nobody wanted and he supplanted GM Licht's 2014 FA center signing of Evan Dietrich-Smith as starter.
Cherilus was put into the lineup because Demar Dotson fell to injury early. Cherilus was a turnstile at that hot corner and it was not a pretty sight.
Obvious weaknesses at center and RT is brought up identify the run game was actually due to the talent the Bucs had at both guard positions with Mankins and Marpet. That was the template that GM Licht had to keep in order to maintain a successful run game.
Tampa Bay offensive yards, 2015 and 2016
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2015: Pass yds = 3852 yds; Rush yds = 2162 yds
2016: Pass yds = 3926 yds; Rush yds = 1616 yds
2016 fell apart in the run game. FA JR Sweezy had back problems that rendered out of the NFL for the whole season and we inserted 2014 fifth rounder Kevin Pamphile to slot as the starting LG. It was then that Koetter decided to go forego being a balanced offensive team and abandon the run. He could work with that. That offseason brought in explosive weapons in FA speedster WR Desean Jackson, drafted TE OJ Howard in the first round, and drafted WR Chris Godwin in the third round. That was in addition to WR Evans and developing receivers in TE Cam Brate and slot WR Adam Humphries.
Tampa Bay offensive yards, 2015-17
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2015: Pass yds = 3852 yds; Rush yds = 2162 yds
2016: Pass yds = 3926 yds; Rush yds = 1616 yds
2017: Pass yds = 4366 yds; Rush yds = 1450 yds
The gamble paid off as Tampa finished 4th overall in passing yards.
Pamphile was not a good enough option to keep, but JR Sweezy could be viable as he might be able to regain that bend that he lost in the 2017 season. The question would be if the Bucs were willing to gamble with his $6.5 million salary? If so, then the Bucs can draft a LG in the second round of the 2018 draft. It seemed simple of a movement.
That is not what transpired. GM Licht decided on going into a far different direction. Licht signed FA C Ryan Jensen and made him the highest paid center in the league for that year. Jensen would earn $11 in 2018, then $10 mil for 2019, 2020, and 2021 with a potential out at 2020. That would imply C Marpet would be shifting to either RG or LG and the final designation after Jensen's acquisition was Marpet would be a LG.
What were Jensen and Marpet's PFF scores in 2017 as center?
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Jensen: 72.3 PFF rating
Marpet: 81.5 PFF rating
Moving on from Marpet at center did not make any sense if the Bucs were to keep a vertical offense as Marpet gave Winston a pocket all day. Yet, moving Marpet to LG would give the Bucs a mobile run blocker and C Jensen would hold, which should give Tampa the ability to find a starting guard early in the draft.
We already knew that Marpet and Sweezy worked in 2017. It is always a gamble with new FA's. Jensen's 2018 season was crap with a 56.6 PFF rating. A waste. But was it only his fault?
This is where GM Licht might be to blame. Licht released RG Sweezy and signed a very expensive center in Jensen. That left a significant void at starting RG. GM Licht addressed that position by trading up into the bottom of the third round for Div II LT Alex Cappa, who's known for his bouncer strength, but not much else. What is odd is that Licht picked up two more second round draft picks, 53rd and 56th, by trading down from 7th overall to 12th. Tampa needed OLine talent in a hurry, but Licht thought Caleb Benenoch could manage and have Cappa as the project.
Licht went with a shiny object at RB than address a foundational piece to the offensive line. Although Licht had stated he would have drafted LG Quenton Nelson if he fell, there were other options at OG for Licht in the draft. He should have stuck with that idea of addressing the OLine early.
A total of 6 offensive linemen went into the top 23 picks. There was urgency in teams needing OLine help, with 3 out of the 6 being iOL drafted.
Tampa owned the 6th pick in the second round of the draft. Here are the teams and their selections at the top of the second round.
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33. Cle: OT Austin Corbett
34. NYG: LG Will Hernandez
35. Cle: RB Nick Chubb
36. Ind: LB Darius Leonard
37. Ind: OG: Braden Smith
38. TB: RB Ronald Jones
39. Chi: C James Daniels (Chicago used him as a LG)
PFF Scores for iOL of those top 2nd rounders in their rookie season + Cappa
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LG Will Hernandez: 67.9 PFF rating
RG/RT Braden Smith: 73.3 PFF rating
LG James Daniels: 68.4 PFF rating
RG Alex Cappa: 40.1 PFF rating
RB Ronald Jones: 48.8 PFF rating
Tampa needed a staring RG in 2018, but Licht neglected that starting position despite his willingness to draft LG Quenton Nelson with the 7th overall selection, which would have put Marpet back to RG.
The audacity of our GM to cite a need and then proceed to ignore it. Cappa was not a viable solution for 2018, but is a developmental iOL.
With terrible play between C Jensen, RG Benenoch, and RG Cappa, we fans discovered news that the Bucs were set on drafting an OT, but a team snatched him up one pick ahead. By deductive reasoning, that OT would be Cody Ford. Again, the scouting staff denoted a dire need to address the OLine once again. Instead of drafting the next best OT prospect in Dalton Risner, the Bucs chose to grab CB Sean Murphy-Bunting because of his combine performance.
Risner could have started off at RG to give competition with Cappa for a season and possibly make a start at RT if Dotson fell to injury. But in drafting Risner, the Bucs would give themselves a future starting RT who would be eased in by playing RG for a year. That logic fell by the wayside.
Lost in all this was the fact that the Bucs were able to develop UDFA RB Peyton Barber. Barber was signed in 2016. Ronald Jones struggled in his rookie season as he was a run only running back in college being inserted into a vertical offense where pass blocking and catching were needed. Jones could not catch fluidly coming out of college. It will be his third season and the Bucs are hoping to have a complete back going into 2020. The only problem is that now he will take a back seat to newly signed Leonard Fournette.
What would the team be like if we actually did address the OLine properly starting with the 2018 draft?
In 2018, the Bucs could have traded the assets of RB Jones (38th) and OL Cappa (102nd and 180th) to New England for their 31st overall pick. New England loves to trade down so that part of the trade would be feasible. Cappa was the 94th pick overall, but the Bucs used the 102nd (4th) and 180th (6th) to trade up to the 3rd round.
Even if the Bucs didn't trade down, they could have selected C Daniels and converted him to RG.
Let's go with retaining the same picks of 38th and 94th, but choosing different players.
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38th: C James Daniels
53rd: CB MJ Stewart
63rd: CB Carlton Davis
94th: RB Nyheim Hines
We know the Bears has made James Daniels their starting LG, so it is not a easy stretch to convert him to RG. He would have been a significant upgrade over RG Benenoch or RG Cappa.
In the third round, the Bucs get a pass catching RB who would double as a kick/punt returner in Hines.
In the 2019 NFL draft, we know we have to prepare for Dotson's departure as a Buc at RT. Tampa was already set to draft OT Cody Ford, but bypassed RT Dalton Risner. In drafting Risner, you create depth on the right side at RG and RT, but also Daniels can be the backup center as well.
Here is what we have going into the 2020 NFL on the offensive line:
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LT Smith
LG Marpet
C Jensen
RG Daniels
RT Risner
What this does for the Bucs is not trade up in the first round for RT Wirfs, thereby keeping the 4th round pick. The Bucs would be in a better disposition in the draft to address other needs.
To be fair, if the Bucs had better blocking in 2018, then the team might have had a better record because opposing teams discovered the weakness in the Bucs' offensive line between Jensen and Benenoch/Cappa. Also, Koetter has his pass catching RB in toe. It was all struggle from there because the GM Licht neglected the starting RG position.
