QB Ratings: Ranking every starting NFL quarterback as a 10-year prospectBy Dean GomesFebruary 04, 2015 Not all quarterbacks are created equally; that’s something that is apparent on a weekly basis during the NFL season. But evaluating the most important position in football goes beyond how a player is performing right now; it’s also about projecting what they’ll be in the future. That’s because franchises have to make decisions about how to put themselves in the best position possible when it comes to their QB. They have to have a plan for now, as well as down the road. One way to do this is to evaluate how effective a quarterback will be for the next decade. Using that metric, the typical rankings of today’s starting quarterbacks looks vastly different. When looking beyond the next game or season, players take on a different value. With that as a backdrop, here’s how today’s current starting quarterbacks stack up based on their grades as 10-year prospects: 
1. Andrew Luck – He’s the most physically gifted young passer in the game. And with only three seasons under his belt, he figures to be among the best QBs in football for the next decade. There’s no better long-term prospect in the league. 2. Russell Wilson – In three pro seasons, he’s been to the playoffs three times, the Super Bowl twice and a championship parade once. Wilson will be a big-time player for the next 10 years in Seattle. He’s a great gamble. 3. Aaron Rodgers – Yes, he’ll be 32 years on for the 2015 season, but given that he didn’t play much during his first three years in the NFL, he’s a young 32; Rodgers figures to be an elite player for another seven or eight years. 4. Matthew Stafford – Stafford spent his first five NFL seasons chucking the ball all over the yard, a practice that led to big stats and even bigger mistakes. He matured in 2014, however, and now looks like a QB ready for the big time. 5. Colin Kaepernick – When it comes to physical tools, there might not be a better quarterback in the NFL; Kaepernick is a great runner and he has a cannon for an arm. That combination makes him enticing at just 27 years old. 6. Joe Flacco – Based on how long other Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have played, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Flacco would seem to have another six, seven or eight years left. That’s a good run for a guy who always makes the playoffs. 7. Derek Carr – In 2014, Carr was by far the best of the rookie QBs; he improved every week, while showing great leadership skills for a young player. He seems like a sure bet to be a very good player for the next 10 years in Oakland. 8. Tom Brady – While Brady may only have four or five years left, those figure to be very productive. Being a title contender for half of a decade is worth being terrible for the five years following his retirement.9. Matt Ryan – It’s hard to believe that Ryan will be entering his eighth NFL season in 2015; it seems like he just arrived in Atlanta. Thus, he’s at about the mid-point of his career, one that needs an uptick after some down years. 10. Ryan Tannehill – The Dolphins quarterback has gotten better in each of his three pro seasons, making him an enticing prospect. If he can continue that trajectory, he’ll be a great quarterback for the next 10 years. 11. Andy Dalton – The fact that Dalton can win a lot of games, evidenced by four playoff trips in four seasons, makes him enticing. However, a decade filled with nothing but postseason disappointment would be tough to endure. 12. Nick Foles – Given that he’s only started 24 games, the sample size on Foles remains small. But he’s a winner (15-9 career record) and he posted big-time stats (46 TDs to only 17 picks); that makes him an intriguing option. 13. Teddy Bridgewater – He didn’t get a lot of fanfare during his rookie season, but Bridgewater played very well in Minnesota. He was 6-6 as a starter, which is way better than the records Derek Carr or Blake Bortles were able to post. 14. Cam Newton – Two things are a concern about Newton: One, can he stay healthy over the long haul, given the way he plays; and two, he hasn’t improved much as a player in four years. Is that worth a 10-year commitment? 15. Philip Rivers – Rivers will be 34 during the 2015 seasons, so this is a short-term option. At best, the Chargers QB has another four or five years left in him. So it’s all about making those campaigns fruitful. 16. Eli Manning – Manning has already won two Super Bowls, so his ability to play in the clutch is enticing. But as he approaches his mid-30s, it’s remains to be seen if he can play at a high enough level to get to those situations.17. Ben Roethlisberger – During 158 career starts, Big Ben has taken a lot of abuse. While he’s a tough guy who is able to keep playing, all of that punishment will ultimately take its toll; he only has three or four good years left. 18. Tony Romo – In 2015, Romo will be a 35-year-old quarterback with a bad back. During much of last season, he seemed to be laboring through the pain. That doesn’t bode well for his ability to play more than another couple of seasons. 19. Blake Bortles – While he wasn’t able to win a lot of games as a rookie (3-10) and his numbers were terrible (11 TDs and 17 picks), he does have the physical tools needed to play QB in the NFL; that makes him a decent option. 20. Drew Brees – As he enters his 15th NFL season, the questions about how long Brees can keep playing are at an all-time high. Given that 2014 was such a disappointing season, there’s concern that his game is quickly regressing. 21. Peyton Manning – Manning would be the ultimate short-term play; a team would be looking to win a title in the next season or two, knowing that the veteran quarterback only has that many years left in him, at best. But he’s good for 10-plus wins while he plays. 22. Jay Cutler – The talent is there for Cutler to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the next decade. He’s also a head case that would leave everyone around the team frustrated beyond belief for the next 10 years. 23. Robert Griffin III – RGIII has all kinds of upside, if he can a) get and stay healthy and b) learn to play as a part of the team and not be a prima donna. But it’s hard to see him being able to last for 10 years in the NFL. 24. Alex Smith – Smith is an effective quarterback, a player who probably has 10 more good years in him. But he also has a ceiling, one that would be maddening after a decade of dink-and-dunk passes on a weekly basis.25. Zach Mettenberger – There’s no doubt that Mettenberger would be a gamble. But some coach probably thinks they can turn the young quarterback into a player, especially if they surround him with the type of talent he played with at LSU. 26. Sam Bradford – Strictly based on talent, Bradford belongs higher on this list. But given that he can’t seem to ever stay healthy, he would be a huge gamble to take over a 10-year period. There’s no evidence he’d be on the field very much. 27. Johnny Manziel – To some extent, this week’s news about Johnny Football entering rehab is encouraging; there’s now a chance that his football future will be determined by his vast talent, as opposed to derailed by his off-the-field antics. 28. Carson Palmer – It’d be hard to put much stock in a 36-year-old quarterback who is coming off of a major knee injury, the second of his career. Palmer can maybe play a couple more years, but his effectiveness is a big question. 29. EJ Manuel – During his first two seasons in Buffalo, there’s nothing to suggest that Manuel can be an effective NFL quarterback. Getting benched in favor of Kyle Orton isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of a guy’s talents. 30. Tom Savage – The Texans like Savage’s upside, but he hardly saw the field during his rookie season; this would be a total gamble, betting on a commodity that is completely unknown. It could hit big or miss big; that’s the risk. 31. Geno Smith – Imagine having to watch Smith for the next 10 years. That’s a terrifying thought, given that two seasons of seeing him play in New York has been a painful experience, to put it mildly. 32. Mike Glennon – There’s a reason why the Buccaneers are currently on the clock and figure to take either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston with the No. 1 overall pick. They have no interest in a future that includes Glennon as their QB.link
