Coen may indeed pursue a head coaching job this offseason, but perhaps he'd be smart to wait. He has to weigh the pros and cons, but there are definitely some cons.
1) He has one year of experience as an NFL OC. He's not ready to take over a head coaching job.
2) He won't get the amount of clout now that he would get if he waited. For example, he's a candidate for the Jaguars job, but they have a terrible GM who would be the one who can hire him, and if that GM is fired the new GM won't have loyalty to him. Leftwich had good reason not to take that offer.
3) His offense works because of the O-line and the QB. He may run a great offense, but what has Baker Mayfield done for him? Exhibit A is Week 18 when Baker scrambled out of trouble and made clutch throws time and time again. And I don't care what running game you can scheme up, it helps to have one of the top two or three left tackles and overall, one of the best lines in the league. Bucky isn't getting 5 and a half yards per carry just because of the scheme. Wherever Coen goes he'll have to reshape the offense. Here all the pieces are in place for him.
4) Coen will have a chance to go to a Superbowl. Doesn't mean he will, but if he can engineer a Superbowl appearance or a deep run in the playoffs with his offense, he'd be in a better position as a first-year head coach next year as opposed to a 2nd year coach of a rebuilding team. If you can't get over the hump in three years, you'll usually be fired. Many coaches never get over the hump, and a lot of times it's not all their fault. If you don't have the players, it doesn't matter how creative your scheme is.
So there are good reasons for Coen to wait a year. Perhaps the Bucs can create some incentives and keep him around.
Just to play devils advocate
1 - Dave Canales only had 1 year and look at him! Ended season on a positive note.
2 - Maybe, but as i said in another thread....was if father time catches up with Evans, injuries happen, Baker regresses. Look at Slowik with the Texans and Stroud's regression. Look at a team like the 49ers who had a bunch of injuries and ended up missing the playoffs. Could the Bucs really top this season on offense? A top 5 showing. Of course, we think so, as Evans will stay great, we will get Godwin back, Bucky and McMillian will only improve, Baker will throw 50 TDs next year! and cut down on the interceptions. Who couldn't see this! Well, i'm sure the Texans and 49ers didnt see this year coming for them either.
3 - What if he goes to a team that has talent on the offense i.e. Dallas, Jets, Chicago, etc. Maybe Coen values Lawrence on the Jaguars? I think Bucs are better than all of those teams but maybe Coen doesn't want to wait and those teams would be good enough.
4 - yeah maybe, but Dallas is a team that would be in the Super Bowl hunt or at least similar to Tampa Bay next year. And maybe he likes the challenge of getting a team there as head coach so while it may not happen in 2025 or 2026, it has a good chance of happening in 2027.
to me, unless he gets a written guarantee that he will be coach in 2026, which i dont think Bowles can offer unless Bowles really wants to retire, it will come down to Coen's desire to be a head coach versus the amount of money we throw at him as to whether he stays or not
I don't think Coen wants to be a HC next season. From his presser the other day, and a couple others from either before the season or early in the season, he seems to really enjoy being OC. He may choose to stay in TB as OC for another season or even two before he seriously considers a HC job.
I don't think Coen wants to be a HC next season. From his presser the other day, and a couple others from either before the season or early in the season, he seems to really enjoy being OC. He may choose to stay in TB as OC for another season or even two before he seriously considers a HC job.
for our sake, i sure hope you are right! Hopefully he falls in love with the organization like others have (Evans, Shaq, David, Mayfield)
2 - Maybe, but as i said in another thread....was if father time catches up with Evans, injuries happen, Baker regresses. Look at Slowik with the Texans and Stroud's regression. Look at a team like the 49ers who had a bunch of injuries and ended up missing the playoffs. Could the Bucs really top this season on offense? A top 5 showing. Of course, we think so, as Evans will stay great, we will get Godwin back, Bucky and McMillian will only improve, Baker will throw 50 TDs next year! and cut down on the interceptions. Who couldn't see this! Well, i'm sure the Texans and 49ers didnt see this year coming for them either
This risk (iron might go cold) is gone if he is the Bucs HC in waiting
I don't think Coen wants to be a HC next season. From his presser the other day, and a couple others from either before the season or early in the season, he seems to really enjoy being OC. He may choose to stay in TB as OC for another season or even two before he seriously considers a HC job.
for our sake, i sure hope you are right! Hopefully he falls in love with the organization like others have (Evans, Shaq, David, Mayfield)
I think the environment is a lot of it. That, and the offensive unit with Baker, Evans, Irving and all the weapons he has at his disposal. And all the potential he has to see going forward. However, I think another big part of it is that Coen loves the focus he has as OC. When he inevitably becomes an HC, he knows that he'll have to divide his attention between all three phases of the team to some degree.
He'll become more of an administrator, and he'll necessarily have less time to focus just on the offense. I think he knows that the most fun he's going to have as a coach is going to be these next two or so years when he can devote his entire attention on just the offense and his guys on offense. At least, that's how he sounds to me when he talks about it.
He'll become more of an administrator, and he'll necessarily have less time to focus just on the offense. I think he knows that the most fun he's going to have as a coach is going to be these next two or so years when he can devote his entire attention on just the offense and his guys on offense.
Agree and great way to describe it. He does sound like that when he speaks
Change for the sake of change is sort of the norm in sports fandom, but theres a little bit of irony in saying our OC should be come our HC to take over for a "DC who just isn't a good HC." It should apply with greater force that a rookie OC might not be a good HC and that the offense itself might regress because of the divided focus.
Who knows how it will all play out? Coen sure sounds like he wants to stay, but so did Canales . . .
He'll become more of an administrator, and he'll necessarily have less time to focus just on the offense. I think he knows that the most fun he's going to have as a coach is going to be these next two or so years when he can devote his entire attention on just the offense and his guys on offense.
Agree and great way to describe it. He does sound like that when he speaks
Change for the sake of change is sort of the norm in sports fandom, but theres a little bit of irony in saying our OC should be come our HC to take over for a "DC who just isn't a good HC." It should apply with greater force that a rookie OC might not be a good HC and that the offense itself might regress because of the divided focus.
Who knows how it will all play out? Coen sure sounds like he wants to stay, but so did Canales . . .
Yeah, and tbf, Coen's comments about wanting to remain an OC could be just coachspeak. It's not like I know the man personally. I'm just kind of extrapolating based on how other coaches have talked about their careers, and in part some personal experiences of my own, and how Coen seems to be talking about the future. And the one common theme to moving up the promotion ladder is that you spend more and more time as an administrator (dividing your attention/focus) and less and less time doing what you really want to do/what got you the promotion.
And to me at least, it really sounds like Coen knows that, and wants to really squeeze as much fun out of his time as an OC before he moves up to HC.
response 1- Its true. Canales at least has a young QB to work with. I think Canales has the outgoing personality to be a HC, and Coen still needs some seasoning, but of course I've never met Coen and I've never heard him speak to the team.Just to play devils advocate
1 - Dave Canales only had 1 year and look at him! Ended season on a positive note.
2 - Maybe, but as i said in another thread....was if father time catches up with Evans, injuries happen, Baker regresses. Look at Slowik with the Texans and Stroud's regression. Look at a team like the 49ers who had a bunch of injuries and ended up missing the playoffs. Could the Bucs really top this season on offense? A top 5 showing. Of course, we think so, as Evans will stay great, we will get Godwin back, Bucky and McMillian will only improve, Baker will throw 50 TDs next year! and cut down on the interceptions. Who couldn't see this! Well, i'm sure the Texans and 49ers didnt see this year coming for them either.
3 - What if he goes to a team that has talent on the offense i.e. Dallas, Jets, Chicago, etc. Maybe Coen values Lawrence on the Jaguars? I think Bucs are better than all of those teams but maybe Coen doesn't want to wait and those teams would be good enough.
4 - yeah maybe, but Dallas is a team that would be in the Super Bowl hunt or at least similar to Tampa Bay next year. And maybe he likes the challenge of getting a team there as head coach so while it may not happen in 2025 or 2026, it has a good chance of happening in 2027.
to me, unless he gets a written guarantee that he will be coach in 2026, which i dont think Bowles can offer unless Bowles really wants to retire, it will come down to Coen's desire to be a head coach versus the amount of money we throw at him as to whether he stays or not
2- Father time catches up to everyone, but next year most of the high priced players will be in there prime and the rookies who are performing well this year will have a year of seasoning- hopefully not a sophmore slump. Things don't always go as planned, that's for sure. But teams have to know when it's time to take a shot, and it's the Bucs time in 2025.
3 - as for Trevor Lawrence, Coen could be a good influence, but so far Lawrence is "meh". Who would you rather have? Baker or Lawrence? No comparison. And the Jaguars didn't fire their horrible GM.
And the Jaguars didn't fire their horrible GM.
Deal breaker for some candidates
Ultimately it comes down to Licht. I've been on him in the past but he has earned my trust.
Let's see what he does
He's not going to fire Bowles, if that's what you are talking about, Firebowles.Ultimately it comes down to Licht. I've been on him in the past but he has earned my trust.
Let's see what he does
I still think that Bowles could agree to a one year plan which I've talked about before. You can't promise Coen something without Bowles being fully on board with it. Bowles has to say "Look I don't want to coach that much longer and I don't want to break in yet another OC, have the offense struggle, and get fired anyway because of that. So lets work something out for Coen to be heir apparent. This is our best shot and we need Coen on board. Give me one more year and I'll bow out after that regardless of the results." It makes sense to me that Bowles would be OK with that, but of course it may not be what he has in mind.
