Jameis Winston is the most improved player from his rookie season. Can you believe it folks? In a 2017 season that has been riddled with disappointments and unaccepted gloomy surprises you have the resilient Winston rising. Winston rises despite injuring his throwing shoulder and a shaky o-line. And shaky confidence in the HC/OC who is really green giving that he is a 2nd year HC (Koetter).
Many seem to be skeptical of this possibility, but it is true if you examine closely. In fact, Winston has shown great growth from his rookie season. This growth from his rookie season all shows that Winston is indeed an improving, young franchise QB. Lets dive into the numbers:
Winston in his rookie year (2015):
Games: 16
Comp%: 58.3
Yards: 4042
Yards/game: 252.2
Attempts: 535
Attempts/game: 33.4
Comp: 312
Avg: 7.6
Tds: 22
INTs 15
Passing TD's/game: 1.38
Int's/game: 0.94
TD/INT: 1.46
Fumbles: 6
Lost: 2
Total tunrovers: 21
Turnover rate/game 1.31
Rating: 84.2
Winston in 2017:
Games: 13*
Comp%: 63.8
Yards: 3504*
Yards/game: 269.5
Attempts: 442
Attempts/game: 34.0
Comp: 282
Avg: 7.9
Tds: 19
INTs: 11
Passing TD's/game: 1.46
INTs/game: 0.85
TD/INT: 1.72
Funbles: 15
Lost: 7
Total turnovers: 18
Turnover rate/game: 1.38
Rating: 92.2
Not listed but should be obvious is that Winston in his rookie season rushed for six rushing TD's. Winston in 2017 has 1 rushing TD.
Winston in 2017 is significantly better than rookie Winston. Fans set two goals for Winston from his rookie season.
1. Being more accurate:
Winston went from a 58% passer to 64% passer within three seasons which is remarkable for Koetter's four vert offense. This is not a traditional WCO by any measure.
2. Less INT's:
Winston has an INT rate go from 0.94 to-----> 0.85 which is an improvement. Winston is throwing also more TD's than per INT. It could be argued that it is not significant enough, but the trend has shown to be the cased starting in 2016 and has carried onto the 2017 season.
So, Winston is fumbling a lot more than his rookie season but has only lost 5 more fumbles than his rookie season. Actually if you look at last year's stats (2016) you would see Winston lost 6 fumbles while in 2017 Winston has lost 7 fumbles.
Winston has been sacked 33 times in 13 games which is way out of line from his rookie year, and starting to show a divergence from the 2016 season.
In other words here is how it looks like in a different format (Sacks/game):
2015: 1.69 sacks/game
2016: 2.19 sacks/game
2017: 2.54 sacks/game
First, I think this is a function of Winston growing into a better pocket passer and is more willing to stick in the pocket now looking at his 3rd and 4th reads instead of bailing like his rookie year. So, Winston's mental processing has improved dramatically and it shows. Second, is that the Bucs need a legit LT with athletic feet and a proper kickstand. The Bucs D. Smith isn't a LT by any stretch of the imagination, and can't be asked to be protecting a QB's blindside in Koetter's 4 vert offense. Marpet has settled down with his snaps, and has finally found a groove as an offensive center. Overall, I am not concerned about Winston fumbling the ball to be honest ala Mariota, because he isn't a scrambler and hasn't been one since his rookie year.. It is the attempts to make a throw when a play is dead that often causes Winston to be in trouble with strip fumbles and INTs IMVHO. But that will happen when you have a shoddy OL in front of you. A legit LT will make this offense look a lot better in many ways
Does Winston lack mental processing?
Based on being the youngest QB with so many TDs in his short career the short answer is no. The longer answer is that when he is in the red zone he is money which leads to the next often asked question.
Is Winston the reason for the Bucs red zone woes in 2017?
In 2015, Winston had 15 TD's and 1 INT in the opp 19-1 yard line. In 2016, Winston had 19 Tds, and 0 INTs in the opp 19-1 yard line. In 2017, Winston had 12 Tds and 0 INTs in the opp 19-1 yard line. The problem with Winston and INTs is when he is approaching or near the red zone. Most of Winston's INT's come mid field or approaching the red zone. That is an easy fix with play calling and better running game.
Is Winston a franchise QB?
In my opinion he is, because the criteria for a franchise QB has changed the last two decades and is still changing. What I look for is growth and consistency.
It is scary to see had Winston played a full season in 2017 he would have had another 4000 yard passing season. More interesting to me is how his completion percentage has jumped despite not playing his very best. In other words, he is going to be scary good. Plus, if Flacco is considered a franchise QB, based upon that criteria yes I would say Winston is a franchise QB as well.
In summary, Winston has over 11,000+ passing yards in three seasons, and he is only 23 years old. 69 TD/44 INT's is a TD/INT ratio of 1.5 which is the mendoza line for a young franchise QB in my opinion. Once you reach a TD/INT ratio 2 or greater that starts to put you in the near elite/ elite category of QB's. However, I would like Winston to approach the 2:1 TD/INT ratio, but I think this can be done with simply more three step drops and a better LT. Based on Winston's growth, improvement, and productivity it is my opinion that Winston is a franchise QB. As Bucs fans we are very lucky to have a QB that hasn't even hit his ceiling yet and has shown gradual improvement along the way despite all the turmoil around him. That to me is true resilience and a hat tip nod of respect to that young man. Thank you Jameis Winston. Thank you.
