Winston looks like he'll throw for 11-16 TDs in his first two years in the NFL

These TD numbers are in line with Blake Bortles, Vince Young, Geno Smith, and Josh Freeman. Daunte Culpepper averaged 15 TDs over his career. He’s not Cam Newton. He doesn’t have the wheels. He’s a combination of Josh Freeman and Vince Young. 11 to 16 TDs in your first two years for a #1 overall pick is not good value.