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Winston & Mariota Stand Greater Chance of Failing Based on NFL Draft History

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Avatar Of Machiavelli
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This list of quarterbacks selected in the first round of NFL Drafts since 1987 is sorted by Round, Pick in that Round, Name of Player, Position, College and NFL Team that Drafted the Player. 20141 3 Blake Bortles  QB Central Florida Jacksonville Jaguars  1 22 Johnny Manziel  QB Texas A&M Cleveland Browns  1 32 Teddy Bridgewater  QB Louisville Minnesota Vikings  20131 16 EJ Manuel  QB Florida State Buffalo Bills  20121 1 Andrew Luck  QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts  1 2 Robert Griffin  QB Baylor Washington Redskins  1 8 Ryan Tannehill  QB Texas A&M Miami Dolphins  1 22 Brandon Weeden  QB Oklahoma State Cleveland Browns  20111 1 Cam Newton  QB Auburn Carolina Panthers  1 8 Jake Locker  QB Washington Tennessee Titans  1 10 Blaine Gabbert  QB Missouri Jacksonville Jaguars  1 12 Christian Ponder  QB Florida State Minnesota Vikings  20101 1 Sam Bradford  QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams  1 25 Tim Tebow  QB Florida Denver Broncos  20091 1 Matthew Stafford  QB Georgia Detroit Lions  1 5 Mark Sanchez  QB USC New York Jets  1 17 Josh Freeman  QB Kansas State Tampa Bay Buccaneers  20081 3 Matt Ryan  QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons  1 18 Joe Flacco  QB Delaware Baltimore Ravens  20071 1 JaMarcus Russell  QB Louisiana State Oakland Raiders  1 22 Brady Quinn  QB Notre Dame Cleveland Browns  20061 3 Vince Young  QB Texas Tennessee Titans  1 10 Matt Leinart  QB USC Arizona Cardinals  1 11 Jay Cutler  QB Vanderbilt Denver Broncos  20051 1 Alex Smith  QB Utah San Francisco 49ers  1 24 Aaron Rodgers  QB California Green Bay Packers  1 25 Jason Campbell  QB Auburn Washington Redskins  20041 1 Eli Manning  QB Mississippi San Diego Chargers  1 4 Philip Rivers  QB North Carolina State New York Giants  1 11 Ben Roethlisberger  QB Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers  1 22 J.P. Losman  QB Tulane Buffalo Bills  20031 1 Carson Palmer  QB USC Cincinnati Bengals  1 7 Byron Leftwich  QB Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars  1 19 Kyle Boller  QB California Baltimore Ravens  1 22 Rex Grossman  QB Florida Chicago Bears  20021 1 David Carr  QB Fresno State Houston Texans  1 3 Joey Harrington  QB Oregon Detroit Lions  1 32 Patrick Ramsey  QB Tulane Washington Redskins  20011 1 Michael Vick  QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons  20001 18 Chad Pennington  QB Marshall New York Jets 19991 1 Tim Couch  QB Kentucky Cleveland Browns  1 2 Donovan McNabb  QB Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles  1 3 Akili Smith  QB Oregon Cincinnati Bengals  1 11 Daunte Culpepper  QB Central Florida Minnesota Vikings  1 12 Cade McNown  QB UCLA Chicago Bears  19981 1 Peyton Manning  QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts  1 2 Ryan Leaf  QB Washington State San Diego Chargers  19971 26 Jim Druckenmiller  QB Virginia Tech San Francisco 49ers  1996None19951 3 Steve McNair  QB Alcorn State Houston Oilers  1 5 Kerry Collins  QB Penn State Carolina Panthers  19941 3 Heath Shuler  QB Tennessee Washington Redskins  1 6 Trent Dilfer  QB Fresno State Tampa Bay Buccaneers  19931 1 Drew Bledsoe  QB Washington State New England Patriots  1 2 Rick Mirer  QB Notre Dame Seattle Seahawks  19921 6 David Klingler  QB Houston Cincinnati Bengals  1 25 Tommy Maddox  QB UCLA Denver Broncos  19911 16 Dan McGwire  QB San Diego State Seattle Seahawks  1 24 Todd Marinovich  QB USC Los Angeles Raiders 19901 1 Jeff George  QB Illinois Indianapolis Colts  1 7 Andre Ware  QB Houston Detroit Lions  19891 1 Troy Aikman  QB UCLA Dallas Cowboys 1988None19871 1 Vinny Testaverde  QB Miami (Fla.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  1 6 Kelly Stouffer  QB Colorado State St. Louis Cardinals  1 13 Chris Miller  QB Oregon Atlanta Falcons  1 26 Jim Harbaugh  QB Michigan Chicago Bears  A lot of us is engaged in debating which QB should be our No. 1 overall pick -- J. Winston or M. Mariota. It's a very heated and passionate debate. We can all agree that they had great college careers en route to winning Heisman Trophies, but NFL draft history suggests both QB's stand a better chance of failing then they do succeeding at the pro level. I knew there are a lot of first-round QB busts, but I didn't realize how many there were until I looked this up. I went back to 1987, figuring it would make sense to go back to the last year the Bucs had the first overall pick in the draft, and took a QB. Man, there are more busts on this list than on Clearwater Beach on a sunny July afternoon. If you're a glass is half full type of guy, I suppose you could look at the fact that there have been 16 QB's taken No. 1 overall since 1987, Vinny Testerverde included. Less than half (five) of those QB's (Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Alex Smith and Drew Bledsoe) went to Super Bowls while four of them (all but Alex Smith) won a Lombardi Trophy. Eli Manning and Troy Aikman won multiple Super Bowls. Peyton Manning has been to multiple Super Bowls. But two of those QB's -- Alex Smith and Drew Bledsoe -- did not play for their teams in the Super Bowl (I believe Smith and Bledsoe lost their jobs to injury those years). Since 2005, a total of 27 QB's have been drafted in the first round. About half of them (13) are not starting in the NFL. Six more (Manziel, Griffin III, Locker, Bradford and Cutler) are on the verge of losing their starting jobs. And seven of them, including Josh Freeman, aren't even in the league anymore. Yo,  if I were a scout and was interviewing Winston and Mariota, I would flat out give them this list, let 'em digest it and then ask point blank why they are going to be the exception and not the norm when it comes to failed first round QB's in the NFL. And what are they going to do to ensure that they are successful? Man, let's hope that we get this pick right. Otherwise, we will be destined for several more years of losing like a lot of the teams on this list that got their pick wrong.

 
Posted : Jan. 21, 2015 4:22 pm
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