I recently read an article on Andrew Luck's rookie year and how he was initially confused at the Colts first training camp, but quickly adapted and learned the system. So I went back and looked at Luck's draft analysis coming out in 2012. Almost every analyst said the same, he was a virtual "sure thing" in the NFL. One of the first in a long, long time. So I thought to myself, why is Winston not a sure thing?? Of course, the easy answer is the off the field concerns which must be taken into account with any player. But outside of that, is Winston a "sure thing?" Comparing stats, Luck and Winston are reasonably close: Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A A/YA Tds Int Rate Winston 562 851 66 7964 9.4 9.4 65 28 163.3Luck 713 1064 67 9430 8.9 9.5 82 22 162.8Of course, Luck had 3 full years of play at Stansford, while Winston only had 2 years at FSU.Still, outside of the off-field stuff, why are Winston critics so hesitant to say he is a sure-thing on the field? While Luck was more athletic as a QB, his downside coming out of college was that he had an "OK" arm, not really that strong, threw an underwhelming deep ball, and his release was not that quick. On the upside, he was extremely intelligent, a student of football, had great pocket presence and was very accurate. Also, he was a natural leader.On the Winston side, he obviously is not as athletic as Luck, but does have a great arm, has great pocket presence, throws a great deep ball and is very accurate. In addition, he has great anticipation, can throw into tight windows, is a natural born leader, and also is extremely intelligent and a student of football. Winston's downside, as evidenced by his 18 INT's last year has more to do with risk taking than anything else. It was clear at times that he tried to do too much. The Colts were 2-14 the season before Luck took over. In his rookie season the Colts went 11-5 and Luck threw 23 TD's and 18 INT's. He completed 54.6% of his passes and threw for 4374 Yds.So then...... I am a realist by nature, and I don't tend to have unrealistic expectations, but outside of the off-the-field concerns with Winston, are our expectations too Low??? Most people on PR and on the board seem to think that 6-10 is realistic for the Bucs this season and seem like they will be happy with such a record. And I initially agreed with those expectations. But after looking at the rookie seasons of Luck and some other rookie QB's (i.e. RGIII), I am starting to think my expectations are really low and I should expect more from Winston and from this Team. Why hold the bar so low??? Maybe its fear of disappointment. Regardless, we should demand more from our team and the players, at least 8 - 8. Maybe Winston is not a sure thing, but I'd like to think he can be.
