Two years ago, the Bucs looked set at edge rusher. With Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul entrenched as starters and the recently drafted Joe Tryon-Shoyinka as a raw, talented ball of clay behind them, the future looked bright.

My, how the times have changed. Pierre-Paul is gone following an injury-riddled 2021 campaign. Barrett finished 2022 on injured reserve due to a torn Achilles. And Tryon-Shoyinka seemed allergic to bringing down quarterbacks in his sophomore season.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Head coach Todd Bowles seemed to go out of his way following the season to call out the outside linebacker room for a lack of sack production. It stands to reason that despite needs at cornerback, safety, quarterback, defensive tackle and possibly more, the Bucs could look at an edge rusher with the 19th overall pick in the upcoming 2023 NFL draft.

If that is the direction the Bucs want to go in, the top 2-3 guys will most likely be off the board by then. Will Anderson Jr., Lucas Van Ness and Tyree Wilson all stand to be top-15 picks. That may work to the Bucs’ advantage. There is an edge rusher who may be more talented than some — or all — of them. His name is Nolan Smith, and he played for the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs.

Smith’s College Production

Smith played four years at Georgia and enters the NFL following his senior year. For his career, he played 46 games, logging 114 total tackles, 21 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, four passes defensed, three forced fumbles and an interception. His overall production appears scant for his tenure in college, but that was due largely to two factors.

First, Smith had the distinction and the misfortune of being a part of an incredibly deep Georgia pass rush. And head coach Kirby Smart leveraged that depth to the detriment of his players’ personal prospects. Smith had to share time over his collegiate career with former NFL outside linebacker D’Andre Walker and current outside linebackers Azeez Ojulari and Travon Walker.

The second factor is a torn pectoral muscle Smith suffered in Week 8 against Florida. The injury would put Smith on the shelf for the remainder of the year. These two factors limited Smith to just 1,154 defensive snaps and just 621 pass rush snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

While his 11.5 sacks over four years is not the number you want to see for a four-year player at edge, it does clear the 10-sack threshold that typically belies a poor showing in the NFL. Looking under the hood a bit further, you can see that Smith’s pass rushing effectiveness is still on par with his contemporaries. Here is how Smith stacks up against the three other pass rushers previously referenced.

Smith outpaces both Wilson and Van Ness in career pressure rate while ranking above both Anderson and Van Ness this past year.

Smith’s Draft Profile

Smith packs a big punch in a small package. Much will be made of Smith’s 6-foot-3, 236-pound frame. Questions will persist about whether he will be able to hold up against the tall and weighty offensive tackles of the NFL. All eyes will be on Smith when he weighs in at Indianapolis next week. If he can come in at 240-245 pounds while still hitting some of the expected measurements in the speed, explosion and agility drills, it will go a long way to helping his call.

Coming out of high school, Smith posted the following times: 4.51 40-yard dash, 4.15 shuttle time and a 39.6″ vertical jump. If Smith were to just maintain those numbers at a 240 lb. weight, he will post a Relative Athletic Score of over 9.00.

Going beyond Smith’s production and size concern, there is a lot to like about the IMG Academy product. He has a solid, but not fantastic burst off the line. Once he gets underway, he can move up the arc quickly and finish it off with impressive bend.

Smith feels most comfortable trying to convert his speed to power, trying to channel his quickness and naturally lower pad level into an impactful strike as he attempts to work through his opponent. He pairs this outside speed threat with a fun wide outside step, quick speed inside counter. Smith rounds out his pass rush arsenal with good use of his hands to prevent blockers from getting him tied up.

Smith Provides A High Floor As A Strong Run Defender

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While Barrett and Tryon-Shoyinka are still on the Bucs roster, backups Carl Nassib and Anthony Nelson are set to become free agents. Nelson was a strong run defender for the Bucs even though he was limited as a pass rusher. If the team is looking to replace Nelson’s run defending skill set and are not happy with Tryon-Shoyinka’s development in that area, Smith may be a target for the Bucs.

Much like when he is applying his pass rush, Smith uses great leverage from his shorter frame to create penetration as a run defender. He has impressive strength (not just for his size, the guy is just strong) that gives him the opportunity to set the edge.

Combining loose hips that allow him to move laterally as easily as he moves vertically with his leverage and strength gives Smith all of the tools he needs to be able to operate on all three downs. This is a big differentiator between talented edge rushers who are first rounders versus guys who end up as day two picks. Smith has the tools to play all three downs.

There are risks with Smith. His lack of playing time is going to be a big question mark that each team will have to screen. But the Bucs have shown a willingness to go after talented pass rushers with a lack of extensive play time. Tryon-Shoyinka only had 851 snaps coming out of Washington and missed the entire year prior to his draft year due to Covid.

Teams will also most likely fall in love with Smith’s character and work ethic. All reports are that he is a natural leader with a great personality.

Smith’s weight will be the lynchpin. If he can add 10 pounds (and he has the frame to do it), he has the tape and the athleticism to be selected in the first round. Perhaps even with the 19th pick.