READ-OPTION: TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT

In the first section of our Cover 3 this week, we established the criteria of worth for a possible contract for Buccaneers defensive end William Gholston.

In it, we examined four factors: age, production, potential and prediction. We prepared a table of data and advanced statistics for each that it applied to and gave you all the proper tools to form your own opinion of what Gholston’s worth should be. Now we’re giving you the chance to express that with a little game of Take It or Leave It.

We’ve already established a good idea of contract worth from Gholston’s point of view, but that’s only half of the equation. How the rest of the NFL has signed their defensive ends will be just as important to where negotiations between general manager Jason Licht and Gholston’s agent start and finish.

Let’s look at who the top 10 highest-paid defensive ends in the NFL will be heading into 2017 on a salary-per-year basis.

As you can see, most of those guys are on pass-rushing contracts. Gholston doesn’t have anywhere near the sack production those players have, and even if you were to double Gholston’s sack totals (a hypothetical Gholston’s agent will surely try to leverage by using potential), most of those players still have higher totals per year.

So let’s keep going.

Knowing that newer contracts are always somewhat higher, even if the production doesn’t line up, I think Jared Odrick and Robert Ayers’ contracts, relative to their age and output at the time they were signed, are ballpark numbers of approximate value for Gholston’s potential. Both of those guys have produced more than Gholston when it comes to getting to the quarterback, but, again, they aren’t the tackling machines Gholston has been over the last two years. And let’s not act like tackles for loss don’t have any value at all, they certainly do for Gholston’s case.

Odrick signed a 5-year, $42.5 million deal in 2015 when he was 27 years old, two years older than Gholston is now. Ayers, signed his 3-year, $19.5 million deal in 2016 when he was 30 years old and recorded 6.5 sacks, which could be Gholston’s potential, last year in his first season in Tampa Bay. Gholston will be signing his contract at age 25 with the same amount of experience Odrick had when he signed his deal, but is he worth $8.5 million per year due to his age and potential? Or is he worth closer to the $6 million Ayers will make this year?

To me, knowing every situation isn’t a perfect parallel, that’s what Gholston’s camp will be looking at.

But there’s one more factor when it comes to determining Gholston’s value and that is the likelihood of replacing him if in fact Licht were to hold firm on a number that wasn’t accepted by Gholston’s camp. For that, let’s look at the potential upcoming defensive end free agents.

As you can see, there is not a single player on the top tier of that list that is of Gholston’s age – Gholston is much lower on the list because it ranks them by average base salary of their current contract, which is Gholston’s rookie deal.

We know it’s not likely that the Buccaneers are going to dump Gholston for the likes of  Calias Campbell or Jason Pierre-Paul, so that all plays well into Gholston’s leverage. If the Buccaneers choose to offer him a deal he’s not comfortable with and he walks, Tampa Bay’s only real option for a replacement would be to sign an older Chris Long or Charles Johnson. Such a move would require a lot of faith in defensive ends Jacquies Smith and George Johnson to work well in a rotation.

So here’s the moment of truth. The moment where I give you a contract number for Gholston and you have to decide whether he stays or goes, knowing everything that has been presented to you about Gholston’s production, what he can be, both potential replacements in the draft and free agency, and his compliments if you bring him back.

If William Gholston put his foot down on a 5-year, $33.75 million deal ($6.75 million per year average) that was back-loaded (meaning his total salary would be lower than $6.75 million per year to start and would increase over time to average out), would you take it?

I know there are outside factors that will come into play here. For example, Gholston wants to stay in Tampa Bay; this is known. He could be willing to give the Buccaneers and hometown discount. But, on the flip side, this is the only contract he’ll get to sign in his prime. No one plays this game forever. Most players know the value of getting what they can while they can. 

Such a contract would make Gholston a Top 20 paid defensive end in the NFL.

Is he worth it?