All-Twenty Tuesday: Bucs QB Jameis Winston

Now that we’ve given even more context to some of the numbers on Winston’s deep ball passes, I wanted go as far as we can into the context with them and take a look at the film. As stated before, I took a look at all 77 deep ball passes Winston threw in 2018, and wanted to throw (pun) these thoughts out there as we focus on Winston’s different receiver targets.

Target: Mike Evans

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Winston’s favorite deep ball target is Mike Evans. He and Evans connected on 50 percent of their deep shots (14-of-28) throughout the season, and that is a really good number for any quarterback and receiver, not just “for Winston.”

But, as you can see above, the chemistry didn’t just pop up overnight, not even in 2018. The throw above is in the first Atlanta game of the 2018 season, which was Winston’s first start of the year after his relief stint in the Chicago game. In it, Winston was all over the place with his deep ball, especially to the sidelines. It didn’t matter who the receiver was.

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But, as the year went on, Winston did improve in this area when it came to connecting with Evans. I am not sure whether this was due to extra practice between the two of them during the season or just old chemistry coming back into full swing. But even on the most difficult passes, and throwing to the area of the field where he had the most trouble (deep and to the sideline), Winston started to get very accurate when targeting Evans.

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That sort of chemistry was undeniable in games like the Baltimore game. In that game, it was raining for a good portion of the first half. That meant passing the ball was going to be more tricky, and it certainly was. Because of this, Winston constantly made Evans his go-to recipient when it came to big plays. He had confidence in Evans and knew he would be the most reliable. That sort of confidence led to a play like the one above – a completely broken play where magic happened. But look at the pass. Winston just let it fly with no rhythm and nailed it perfectly.

Winston may not be a naturally pin-point accurate player, but he is a guy who can improve when he works on it with someone enough. Chemistry can mask some natural accuracy issues.

He has that with Evans.

Target: DeSean Jackson

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Now we get to the fun part, the part where we get to put all of Winston’s blame on DeSean Jackson and not have to worry about anything with Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback.

Well, not exactly.

As shown in the clip above, Winston clearly just didn’t have a connection with Jackson. The narrative around the entire training camp process when the Bucs brought Jackson in was, “Well, you can’t overthrow a guy like DeSean Jackson.”

They found out quickly that not only can you, but that Winston would … a lot.

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Too deep or too shallow, Winston just never got his timing down with Jackson. Winston was constantly throwing the ball too early or too late when it came to hitting Jackson in stride, and as a result, he didn’t connect with his speedster very often.

Now, once again, Jackson mainly did his work to the sidelines on 9 routes, which are very difficult throws to make, and clearly ones Winston has the most issues with, as they require pin-point accuracy and touch. But Winston was able to iron out the details with Evans in ways he never could with Jackson.

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But, there is a bit of encouragement here, even in Jackson’s tape with Winston.

If you remember the numbers, Winston was clearly better when throwing over the middle. That was even the case with Jackson. When Jackson was running “in” routes, slants or even skinny post routes, Winston’s percentage of connection was much higher than normal.

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More evidence to that is the fact that Winston and Jackson’s biggest connection of the season (a 60-yard touchdown) came on a deep post route where Jackson was flying over the middle.

There’s something about throwing deep over the middle that makes Winston more comfortable and allows him to connect on a more regular basis, no matter who his target was.

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Even when throwing over the middle, however, there is something that I noticed with Winston that he must work on and that is leading players into space.

Take take the play above, for example. Jackson has his man clearly beat, and it was in the form of a post going from the left to the middle of the field. That ball cannot be placed where Winston threw it – in process or result. Even if the ball isn’t “in the basket” accurate (which is likely the case with Winston, just saying), it doesn’t have to be if you lead the player to space. The more space you give him to work with, the more of a chance he has to run under it.

It’s a bit of a backyard football style of deep passing, but it can work. Winston rarely ever does this, and yet that was the kind of deep ball thrower Ryan Fitzpatrick was in Tampa Bay last year.

There is no reason that ball should have been thrown even close to that spot. Jackson was running that route the right way: to space. Winston does not do a good job of throwing to space in situations like that.

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The play above was another example. See how Jackson was running his route to get to green grass and Winston didn’t follow suit? Winston should have led Jackson to the right corner of the end zone for a touchdown. Those are some little differences that will make deep ball connections easier.

Even if you don’t hit a guy exactly in stride 50 yards down the field (most NFL quarterbacks don’t), it’s those little nuances of giving your guy a chance to do more that make a difference. This also goes for when Winston leads Evans out of bounds on 9 routes instead of leading him to get more yards after the catch.

Target: Chris Godwin

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Godwin’s story was a lot like it was for Evans early on in the year when it came to hitting the deep ball. Those two just could not get on the same page early on. But the reason for the lack of production to Godwin seemed to be that, even though he ran faster than we thought he would at the Combine, there’s a reason why it was faster than we thought.

Godwin does not separate with speed as well as other receivers, and because of that, asking Winston to hit him on 9 routes in man coverage became very difficult. The narrow throwing window made life difficult for Godwin and Winston.

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But, as the season progressed, the Bucs seemed to alter what they did with Godwin, and in doing so gave him a recipe that should continue with success this season.

As stated before, Winston is much more comfortable throwing over the middle. That’s where Godwin can shine. Godwin creates separation with strength and good route running, and in plays like the one above, he can thrive going to the middle of the field.

We’ve also seen a lot of the routes shown above early in this training camp. That’s where Godwin is really going to make his money for the Bucs this season – down the seam.

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And finally, we talked about Godwin having a “Larry Fitzgerald-type role,” well the play above is it. Lining up Godwin in the slot and letting him and Winston connect over the middle. This makes the most out of both of these players’ strengths.

That’s what it’s all about. Yes, sometimes Winston is going to have to make those difficult throws. But when you’re going to ask him to do it, let it be to Evans more often than not – or even new big wide receiver Breshad Perriman, who has a larger catch radius at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds than the 5-foot-11, 172-pound Jackson did. And if you see Winston is having trouble throwing to the sideline in games, then don’t call as many plays where he does.

Winston’s on-pace average with the deep ball would have ranked him as the No. 5 quarterback in the NFL when it came to total deep passes attempted. Many of those passes were not his forte. If this isn’t his strength, stop asking him to do it so much, at least at the level of difficulty they did under Koetter.

Winston is not a naturally good deep passer. Both the data and the film give evidence to this. But that doesn’t mean he is void of doing it at all, and it also doesn’t mean there aren’t little ways in which he and the play design can help yield a better result this season. Let him and Evans do their thing when the ball needs to go to the sideline. Let him throw over the middle more, and let Godwin, Perriman, and tight ends O.J. Howard and Cam Brate be his go-to players between the hash marks.

Winston needs to be better, but he also needs some help.

Even with Winston being who he is, that formula can work in Arians’ offense.