Cover 3 is a weekly feature column written by PewterReport.com’s Tampa Bay Bucs beat writer Trevor Sikkema published every Tuesday. The column, as its name suggests, comes in three phases: a statistical observation, an in-depth film breakdown, and a “this or that” segment where the writer asks the reader to chose between two options.

Sikkema’s Stat of the Week

I didn’t want to do it. I really didn’t want to be writing the “Culture of Losing” column this early in the Bucs’ 2019 season. I write it every year, but never this soon. As I sat in that press box and watched Matt Gay’s kick go just outside the right upright last Sunday in the Bucs’ 32-31 loss to the New York Giants, I thought to myself, ‘Not yet. I can’t be doing this three weeks in, can I?’

So I’m not going to.

Yes, the loss on Sunday hurt the hearts of Bucs fans everywhere. Special shout out to my friend Jay, part of the Lot 6 Krewe of dedicated tailgaters who are there every single week rain or shine. Hours after the game was over, while walking back to my car, I ran into Jay as he sat and ate his last tailgate burger in a nearly empty parking lot and could only seem to muster the sentence, “What the heck am I still doing here?”

There are a lot of Bucs fans out there who are probably asking themselves the same thing.

Bucs K Matt Gay – Photo by: Getty Images

As hard as it may be to believe, though, this thing isn’t over. Tampa Bay’s season can’t be over yet because, well, it isn’t. Sure, it’s not great to look back and see that, in an alternate reality not that far-fetched from our own, the Bucs could be 3-0, or at least 2-1. And yet here they sit at 1-2 after dropping both games at home headlining into one of the most daunting road trips in NFL history.

But there’s hope here. The Buccaneers start their road trip in Los Angeles to face off against the Rams. Where head coach Sean McVay is one of the league’s best, quarterback Jared Goff is not. What allowed the Rams to be so effective last year was that they so heavily leaned on their run game. They ran for just 90 yards last week, and Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles just held two of the best running backs in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, to nearly career-low averages in back-to-back weeks.

Maybe they steal one in L.A. like they did in Carolina. Then they’re right back to 2-2. After that they face a New Orleans team without Drew Brees and a Carolina team without Cam Newton. I know both just won their Week 3 games, but New Orleans didn’t look the same with Teddy Bridgewater under center in Seattle, and new Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen was going up against one of the worst defenses in the league in Arizona.

Who knows? Clean a few things up after an awful ending to Week 3 and the Bucs might be able to get on track, even if it’s just .500 and surviving the road trip.

One area of Tampa Bay’s collective game that must get fixed before any hope can be solidified, however, is how this team finishes games and finishes drives – especially at home, but in general, too.

These are the scores of the Bucs’ last four home games at halftime (via Adam Deeb on Twitter).

14-3 over Saints (2018)
17-7 over Falcons (2018)
7-6 over 49ers (2019)
28-10 over Giants (2019)

All losses. All four.

After the game I heard people utter the phrase you hate to hear: “Same ol’ Bucs.”

Right now they are.

Right now this team doesn’t know how to win, and this coaching staff has not pulled the quick mental turnaround many thought they would. Head coach Bruce Arians talked about that after their win in Carolina last week. That game was a step in the right direction. But even right now early in the season, the blown leads outweigh the finished victory.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Getty Images

The answer to how that stops is multi-layered. The secondary not letting receivers run wide open in the second half is a good place to start. But that one is obvious. On defense, they just did not play well enough to win.

On the flip side, in something a little bit deeper than just execution, one way the Bucs offense can remedy this choking trend is by changing how effective – non-effective, really – they have been on third down.

Through three games the Buccaneers are ranked 24th in the NFL with a 29 percent conversion rate on third down. They were 5-for-11 (45 percent) against the 49ers, 2-for-12 (17 percent) against the Panthers, and 4-for-14 (29 percent) last week against the Giants. That’s just not going to get it done.

As you would expect, most third downs were passes. I also broke down the number and effectiveness of target for each receiver and tight end over the first three games.

WR Mike Evans:

• 6 targets
• 16 percent catch rate (1-for-6)
• 100 percent catch conversion rate

WR Chris Godwin:

• 4 targets
• 75 percent catch rate (3-for-4)
• 100 percent catch conversion rate

WR Breshad Perriman:

• 8 targets
• 50 percent catch rate (4-for-8)
• 100 percent catch conversion rate

TE O.J. Howard:

• 1 target
• 100 percent catch rate (1-for-1)
• 100 percent catch conversion rate

TE Cameron Brate:

• 5 targets
• 100 percent catch rate (5-for-5)
• 60 percent catch conversion rate

Not exactly sure why they’re throwing so many crucial balls to Breshad Perriman. Is it just because the No. 3 receiver in this offense is the one set up to get the third down looks?

And what’s up with Howard barely seeing the ball? Arians said last week that Howard was in the progression rotation on some plays through the first two games, the ball just didn’t go his way. Howard saw a lot more action overall in the third game, but not when it came to third downs.

On the flip side, I would agree that Brate seems like the safe third down option, as he is a perfect 5-for-5 with Winston on third down. But two of his catches didn’t make it to the sticks. That’s still a problem.

But the biggest issue on offense, to me, three weeks into the season is the mentality of offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich.

Right now Leftwich is killing this offense when it comes to capitalizing on momentum, and that includes how drives and downs begin on 1st & 10.

Per Kevin Cole of PFF, no team in the NFL has seen a decrease in passing in early down situations where the distance to gain was at least seven yards more than the Buccaneers. That -15.9 percent change might as well be a mile long, and it’s a trend in the exact opposite direction of where the league is going.

The Bucs want to stay balanced, which is commendable if you’re really good on defense, playing football in the early 2000s, or using your run game as a compliment to the more-emphasized passing game. The first two aren’t true, and Leftwich is proving the last one isn’t either.

EPA is an advanced football statistic that measures “Expected Points Added” on a per-play basis. In Week 3, the Bucs’ EPA on their 24 passing plays was 0.66. On their 22 run plays it was 0.08. And the thing is, the Bucs have been running the ball decently well. Their 121 rushing yards per game ranks eighth in the league, and their 4.3 yards per attempt between Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones is pretty good.

But it’s where these run plays are called, how frequently they’re called, and how non-complimentary they are to what could be the overall game plan of the offense that gives me such concern.

This is a young Bucs roster – young in the sense that they don’t have the knowledge through experience of how to win. What was supposed to be the saving grace for this team was the coaching staff. To this point, neither Leftwich or Arians have been the saviors this roster needs them to be between the whistles. I dive into the details of the film to explain why on the next page.