All Twenty-Tuesday: QB Jameis Winston

Winston’s accuracy has been an issue since his college days, but since his first season as a starter showcased him throwing 40 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, I think it has taken longer for some to admit that this is the case. Winston is a big-time thrower, which means he’s not afraid to take a chance for a big reward down the field. The mentality is good, but the results have to be better.

Through 16 weeks last season, in a clean pocket, on passes of more than 21 yards, Winston was 17-for-39 with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. In the intermediate (passes of 11-20 yards), with a clean pocket, he was 88-for-130 with just two touchdowns to six interceptions. Much higher accuracy, but more turnovers – a bit of an enigma.

We start our film review here, in Week 1 of 2016 against the Atlanta Falcons. The throw above was early on in the game. Before the Bye Week, Winston struggled early in games. I’m not sure if it was just the added adrenaline or the need to get his feet wet with some early competition, but the throw above, for example, should have been an easy score. It wasn’t even his first long throw of the day which might have needed some rust off the arm, either. In the play directly before this one, he missed Adam Humphries at a similar distance and at a similar location to his right.

Winston had a clean pocket in the throw in the play above. He had the time to complete his drop and even had the space to plant and launch off his back foot. I don’t hate the technique on the throw, minus the fact that he didn’t follow through as much as you’d want (Winston is never going to be a robotic passer) but regardless, this is one you can’t miss.

Our next clip begins to paint more of the picture of what could be the source of Winston’s accuracy issues. Even in their first game, the groundwork was already being laid for the final statistics we observed on the previous page that notified us of Winston’s inconsistencies when throwing to his left and to his right.

As stated in the previous clip, Winston miss-fired on two deep throws to his right on back-to-back plays. On the play directly above, however, Winston had a clean pocket and delivered a great ball in the end zone over two defenders for a touchdown – all to his left. It seemed as though Winston was more comfortable moving in that direction.

Later in that game, in the clip directly above, Winston was rolling out, threw to his left, and it was an absolute dime. We talk about how great Winston is out of structure when it comes to processing things down the field, but he might also be better outside of structure with his throwing motion, too. That’s unique, but I would venture to say that the gap between success in structure and success out of structure is too wide for him right now.

In Week 2, we head back to the right side and notice another detail. Winston is not nearly as comfortable throwing from under center than he is from the shotgun. He knows how to do it. He understands the footwork for handoffs, and he knows how to execute varying step drops, but he still doesn’t looks as comfortable when throwing.

That comes to light in the clip above where he again miss-fires when looking to his right. The problem here is with the trajectory of the ball – something Dub Maddox talks about in his quarterback review. If you can pause the video right when Winston releases the ball out of his hand, watch where his arm goes. It goes almost across his face right at shoulder level. That’s not where his arm should be finishing throw. It should be with the throwing thumb going in the opposite pocket. That’s the reason that ball was so high over the target.

That’s a technique thing, and something Winston can certainly clean up, but once he’s been taught it, it’s up to him to actually do it. Fans love Winston for the unconventional success he can have, but at times, that same unorthodox nature that allows him to make the “ooo and ahh” plays also make the simple things less consistent. Here is was him being uncomfortable throwing to his right, and his follow through suffering because of it.

The clip above is more evidence to a natural throwing motion to his left and not his right. Now, the pass above is to his right, but if you’ll notice, because of the way he stepped up in the pocket, he released the ball with his hips fully open like he would for a throw to his left. He seems to be able to correctly throw a ball with velocity and trajectory more when his body is in an open stance.

If you asked most Bucs fans what their favorite Winston throw of the season was, most would say the fade throw for a touchdown at home over Seahawks cornerback, Richard Sherman. That’s the play we have above, and it really is one of Winston’s best throws all year. Look at how comfortable he was when he released the ball both with velocity and placement; it was perfect. It was the perfect throw for that situation, and it all happened when he could open up his hips, drive through the ball with a wide stance and also account for his body swinging to the left.

The more I thought about it, the more Winston’s throwing hits and misses reminded me of the game of golf. Now, I’m not that great at golf. I can hit the ball far, but my accuracy is what kills me. When I was in high school, I played on my school’s team. I only played for one year – my senior year – because my uncle was the coach and they needed a sixth person. Almost everyone on the team was better than me, but because I was the only senior, I elected myself captain and “led” my boys to the state tournament.

I didn’t even play once we got that far.

Anyways.

For a long time when I played, I had a mean fade off the tee box with my driver due to how I torqued my body in the back swing, and my odd balance coming through the ball. I didn’t have the time or the technique to fix it, so instead of not using my driver, I decided to just play the fade. I would purposefully aim my drives to the far left side of the fairway, sometimes even into the rough, and fire away, knowing the ball would go from left to right.

This is what I see in Winston – he’s playing the fade in his arm.

It’s well documented that Winston was also a baseball star. He was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 15ht round of the 2012 MLB draft, but opted to go to Florida State instead. We all know of his accolades playing football there, but he also played two season of baseball for the Seminoles where he was a pitcher and an outfielder. For pitchers, it’s natural for their body to swing in the direction their arm is going. That’s what Winston did on the mound, and that seems to be what’s most comfortable for him on the football field. When he can get his feet in a wide, open stance, that’s when you really see the natural velocity and placement occur. I’m not saying it’s exactly because of baseball, all I’m saying is that the mechanics and the physics seem to line up, in that sense, when weighing where he makes mistakes.

Winston just does not look as comfortable when he has to close his shoulder to his right side. He misses on little things he shouldn’t. He’s been throwing a football his entire life. He understand how the trajectory of his passes need to go. He knows what his arm can do, and yet, sometimes it just seems to fail him, even in a clean pocket. Footwork is also important, but I think he knows what to do there, as well. He’s just not as comfortable when he can’t swing his hips open to follow through.

Last week we went over some mental makeup from Winston, and I think we identified a logical, yet correctable, train of thought that he’s had since dominating the quarterback position as a kid. This week I’d venture to say we’ve put some logic into his accuracy issues as well. Obviously, I’m not Winston. I’m not in his head. I haven’t been with his quarterback coaches or offensive coordinators throughout the years, so I have no idea if this kind of stuff is suppose to be ground breaking or not; I’m just looking at the data and the film (even then, there’s context I don’t know of). But, what’s not ground breaking, regardless, is the fact that Winston has to get better. There are areas of his game that I believe he is ahead of, but as stated before, I think he was still playing his fade when throwing the ball downfield. If it’s not something he can become more consistent with, you could see defenses key in on help to one side of the field or the other, or perhaps blitzing him to look a certain way.

So what if this who Winston is? In his first 32 games, Winston has thrown 33 interceptions. Other former first round starters still in the league who threw more interceptions in their first 32 games: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Blake Bortles. During the pre-draft process, Winston was compared to both Roethlisberger and Manning, and I’ll throw another name in there that I heard, Joe Flacco. When it comes to that imaginary Mendoza line of 59 percent, the career completion average for quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls since 2002 is 63.85 percent. However, who were the only three quarterbacks to win Super Bowls with 59 percent competition percentages during that time? Roethlisberger, Manning and Flacco. If this is who Winston is, it’s not the end of hope, even if he flirts with the Mendoza line some years.

Like Matt Miller and so many others believe, accuracy isn’t always something that can be taught. 2016 made it three years in a row, including his last season at Florida State, that Winston has struggled with accuracy and turnovers. A year or two more on that same path and it will become who he is as a quarterback, not something he will likely correct with upside. But, over the next few years, it seems like he’ll have all the offensive weapons he could want on an offense that wants to see him push the ball down the field. He’ll go for it whether he improves or not, but years three and four are typically the years we see drastic improvement, if there is any to be had, in young quarterbacks.

Buckle up, because 2017 is shaping up to be a wild ride for Winston and Company.