Sikkema’s Stat of the Week

Though the term “gunfighter” existed in several newspapers in the 1870s, the term “gunslinger” was first coined in the Western film Drag Harlan in 1920. Soon after, the word was adopted by other Western writers and became common usage. The term was used to describe those in the Wild Wild West who were the trigger men of their time; the ones who did the dirty work, if you will. It was a time of lawlessness and chaos. Amidst that chaos, it was the gunslingers who either made a killing as mercenaries or in heists, or lost it all – usually their life.

Today that term still exists in common vocabulary, but where the principles of its nature remains, the severity of the title has been tamed. In the sports world, a gunslinger is seen as a risk-taker, and specifically to the game of football, that title is used for the quarterback positions. Quarterbacks like Dan Marino, John Elway and Brett Favre were seen as gunslingers of their time, as player who took big risks but often were the ones who saw reward more than remorse due to how talented they were. Some of the most iconic quarterbacks of the modern era of football can be labeled gunslingers, and that’s because when one is on, there are few things more entertaining in all of sports, let alone in football.

From the very first game that I watched quarterback Jameis Winston play, I knew he was a gunslinger – whether he’s the next great one is still to be determined. It was September 2 on opening weekend of the 2013 college football season. The Florida State Seminoles opened up their season on a Monday night at Pittsburgh with a redshirt freshman quarterback. Prior to this game, the last FSU game I had watched was Florida going into Doak Campbell stadium the previous season with the Gators victorious by a score of 37-26, a result I was very pleased with – but also the last rivalry win I have to remember. With that last game in mind, and a freshman quarterback coming up, I thought it was going to be rough waters for the Seminoles for the next year or so.

Within the span of the next four quarters, I already knew I was wrong.

QB James Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

Winston completed 25-of-27 (92.5 percent) passes that night for 356 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. On that night, I watched competitiveness in its purist form. I watched a quarterback play natural, and yet, better than everyone else – and it was so obvious. The passes that Winston attempted and completed that season were Favre-esque. They were heaves down the field that always seemed to go the offense’s way. They were rockets in tight windows with no hesitation at all. There was no fear in his game; there never was. Winston went on to lead the Seminoles to a national championship that season while throwing 40 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, winning the Heisman Trophy in the process. I thought I was watching the next great gunslinger come of this age.

For Bucs fans, those days seem like a lifetime ago. Winston has had his fair share of big moments already in his three years in the NFL, but nothing like his first season at Florida State. But, is that all par for the course? Is the frustration in Winston natural knowing the type of quarterback he is?

Let’s take a look at Winston’s stats up against a few other modern day gunslinger-type quarterbacks to see how he really stacks up against players who he was and is still compared to around the league.

QB Jameis Winston

This is what we’re looking at three years in to the Jameis Winston era in Tampa Bay. What sticks out right away, for most fans, is the record. Winston currently has a losing record as a starting quarterback in the NFL at 18-27, and I’m sure that eats him up inside just like it does the people who call the Bucs their team.

The elements of a gunslinger-type quarterback is that they’re often feast or famine – at least early on. With the big risks, whether that’s passes deep down the field or passes in tight windows, you open yourself up to high degrees of difficulty which, naturally, can yield worse results if everything doesn’t go according to plan. So far Winston has thrown 44 interceptions in his career, but he has thrown 69 touchdowns, too. Having more touchdowns than interceptions is obviously ideal, but 1.56 touchdown to interceptions ratio is still pretty low. Even the most notable gunslinger quarterbacks have ratios higher than that, in most years, to make their style worthwhile.

Even with the shoulder injury in 2017, Winston did seem to be progressing in terms of efficiency. His average interceptions per attempted pass was at 2.5 percent, the lowest of his career, and his TD-INT ratio, completion percentage and quarterback rating were all career highs. But the next big step has to be touchdowns.

For an example of that, let’s take a look at a quarterback who many used as Winston’s comparison when he was entering the NFL Draft: Steelers signal caller Ben Roethlisberger.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

With similar profiles athletically and a pretty standard diet of big throws and big chances, Roethlisberger was a common name for people to link to Winston as he went through the draft process. Through his first four seasons, Roethlisberger did have something that Winston doesn’t and that is wins, but the trajectory of their early career, if Roethlisberger truly was Winston’s comp, isn’t that far off – and Winston’s is actually a lot more consistent.

Being a part of a stable, winning franchise like Pittsburgh helped Roethlisberger achieve postseason success early on his career, but it’s not like he was doing it with talent all of his own that Winston doesn’t have or even doesn’t show himself. In his first season, Roethlisberger played more conservative, but a very good team around him allowed for him to do that. Winston didn’t have that luxury. The big difference between Roethlisberger’s early years and Winston’s is that Roethlisberger posted a touchdown per pass attempt percentage above five three times. Winston hasn’t done that once. If you’ll notice Roethlisberger also had worse interception per pass attempt percentages than Winston has for every year other than one. But, we don’t really think of that. Why?

Touchdowns.

Efficiency is good, and ultimately, yes, you want to throw as littler interceptions – and turnovers in general – as possible, but the most important trait for a gunslinger is touchdowns. No matter how high your negatives may be, if you can throw more positives in the form of touchdowns, you can weather through some struggling years.

I also chose to look at Roethlisberger’s first four years instead of his first three years to show that, for gun slingers, that fourth year is typically when it call comes together – if it’s ever going to. Take the next comparison as another example.

QB Matthew Stafford

I also heard some comparisons of Winston with Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, so I wanted to pull his numbers up and see how they measured up, as well. Though Stafford and Winston aren’t as close in parallel styles as I would say Roethlisberger and Winston were, Stafford is definitely a gunslinger of the modern era. Whether he was unloading 60 yards down the field to Calvin Johnson or executing one of his signature side arm throws, there is no throw Stafford doesn’t think he can make, and that’s the quality all gunslingers have.

Stafford’s career as a gunslinger is a little tougher to judge because he hurt his throwing shoulder in his second season, but he does still serve as somewhat of a Winston projection, if Winston progresses. If you take the second year out, and get beyond the crazy roller coaster that was going from 2011 to 2012, since he turned 25, Stafford has been steady and successful as a gunslinger throughout. He’s kept his touchdown per attempt percentage above at least four in most of those seasons, and even with a somewhat higher interception per attempt percentage, makes up for it with the scores. Though Roethlisberger is an easier style comparison for Winston, Stafford’s success, stats-wise, should really be what you want to see from Winston from year four on. 25-35 touchdowns with 8-12 interceptions per year.

Finally, let’s look at the player most seemed to link with what Winston could be in the NFL, if he were to reach his perceived ceiling, which is Favre.

QB Brett Favre

If you walked up to any football fan and asked them to give you an example of a gunslinger, there’s roughly a 98.3 (repeating, of course) chance that they would say the name Brett Favre.

I only really remember Favre at the tail end of his career, which was still decently fun, but I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gone back to watch old Favre tape, watched him heave an extremely ill-advised pass only to complete it and look like a legend. That’s a gunslinger. You have to have that. You have to not only do the impossible, but first convince yourself that it’s worth it to make it even happen. There was never an ounce of fear in Favre, and when I watched Winston that first season at Florida State, I could see that characteristic in him.

But, Winston still has to get there in the NFL, and if he’s ever going to be Favre-like, it’s likely in the next season or two. When Favre was at his best, that touchdown per pass attempt percentage was not only above four and not only above five, but in the six and seven ranges. Favre still threw his fair share of interceptions, but by the time he got to his third and fourth years as a starter, he hit for six so often it literally didn’t matter. In a sit down interview Favre did with former Bucs coach Jon Gruden before he took the Raider job, Gruden said that before every play – every play – he thought about where the home run option was (even run plays he could audible out of).

He was rare, he was uncharacteristic and it worked, better for him than any other quarterback in history.

Favre, one of the all-time greats, is of the highest comparison to what Winston can become, and in all reality, it’s unrealistic to expect Winston to be the next Favre like some want him to be. But if Winston continues to improve on his efficiency and can take his next step with touchdowns, he can be in the same ballpark as Stafford and Roethlisberger have been in their consistent stages.

On the next page, we’ll take a look at all 11 interceptions Winston threw in 2017 and determine which ones you can live with as a gunslinger and which ones need to be better decisions in 2018 and beyond.