In case you missed it, things are changing for the Bucs around the Advent Health Training Center. And most of that change is coming on the offensive side of the ball. Head coach Todd Bowles let go of former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and eventually hired new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. The differences between the two play-callers could not be more stark.

Leftwich ran a pro-style offense that relied on playmakers to out-athlete their defensive opponents. Canales is implementing a mid-zone and wide-zone offense that is modeled after the Rams’ attack, and is taking the league by storm. He amplifies the talents of his playmakers by trying to scheme them open regardless of their individual talents.

The differences between the two offensive minds does not stop at their schematic philosophies. Whereas Leftwich balked at opportunities to explain his thoughts and theories with the media, Canales relishes the opportunity. While Leftwich tried to reduce his answers to the shortest form possible, Canales is expansive, expressive and open. He has openly stated that his goal is to educate the fans and media as to his – and the team’s – process and thinking, as they navigate an NFL season and opposing defenses.

And if you don’t believe me, we at Pewter Report, have the video as Dave Canales joined Scott Reynolds and J.C. Allen on the Pewter Report Podcast on Thursday night.

Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

During the latest Pewter Report Podcast, Dave Canales was asked by Allen whether he uses analytics to help him in developing his offense. Canales was effusive in his praise of analytics in his response.

“Analytics is big,” Canales said. “If you’re not using advanced stats and analytics you are missing it. We have some great stuff from our video department. We don’t have an analytics department, but we have groups of people in scouting, and groups of people in video that provide us with these stats that we know we are looking for. So, we ask for [them]. They come with the cut-up. They come with the video that you can see this evidence.”

Canales continued his thoughts on the use of advanced metrics to aid his offense.

“But what it does, same thing with the [NFL Scouting] Combine, it allows you to cover the outliers really quickly,” Canales said. “So, it shows you ‘This is really good.’ ‘This is really bad.’ The part in the middle is where it doesn’t help you as much. Because that’s the part that’s like, ‘Hey, these are all about average numbers.’ You’ve got to dig in, watch the film, decide what’s best. Decide what to do and what to stay away from.”

Dave Canales Is A Coordinator Who Isn’t Afraid To Share His Thinking

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In the almost 45-minute back and forth with Pewter Report, Dave Canales showed an openness and willingness to help those who follow the team in on how he thinks, operates, and uses alternative analysis to help him be the best version of himself.

The Bucs offensive coordinator went so far as to give examples of how analytics helps him create team-specific game plans. And while he didn’t cite expected points per play (EPA), the most commonly cited analytics metric used currently, he did show how analytics can help him make decisions to put his offense in the best situations to succeed.

“It’s those outliers of say, for example, let’s just say 11 personnel shotgun runs are averaging 1.6 yards per carry against this defense,” Canales said. “‘Hey guys, we’re not running 11 personnel shotgun runs this week.’ Or 12 personnel play-action is averaging 14.2 yards per play. ‘Okay guys, hey, we are going to have 12 personnel play-actions.’ There are some things you can go right that analytics helps you.

“It’s the same thing with the scouting evaluation process. They allow you to see these metrics make these guys fall into a category of ‘Oh yeah, these players have been successful’ or ‘These players have historically not been successful.’ Unless you are looking for the diamond in the rough, and you just have a great feel for this receiver who runs 4.7 (second 40-yard dash), ‘He’s going to be a player,’ well then, you better know that. Now you really have to do the homework and see. But at least it gives you a starting point.”

Did The Seahawks Use Analytics Against The Bucs Last Year?

Seahawks QB Geno Smith – Photo by: USA Today

Last year when the Seahawks played the Bucs in Germany, Seattle moved away from the under-center game that they based most of their system on. Instead, the Seahawks ran 44 of 52 offensive plays from a shotgun or pistol formation. That amounts to 84.6% of the snaps. Compare that to the balance of the season where they were in shotgun only 67.8% of the time. The difference could have been due to the fact that Seattle was down 14-0 by the time they lined up for their fourth drive, but they were heavy shotgun even before that, operating under center just 23% of the time in the first three drives.

Could it have been that Seattle saw that the Bucs defense struggled against shotgun formations? I ran some data queries to find out. The results could support that conclusion, but I would say are inconclusive at best.

Until the Week 11 matchup against the Seahawks the Bucs had allowed an EPA/play of 0.0563 versus shotgun runs while allowing an EPA/play of -0.0447 against runs from under center. The difference between the two is over 1/10 of a point per play. And the pass difference between shotgun and under center is 0.0335 in favor of shotgun for the offense. It’s perfectly reasonable to suspect the Seahawks looked at the difference between the Bucs defense’s success against under center and shotgun plays and decided their best course of action was to go heavy shotgun.

If this is the case, it is a welcome change from the offense the Bucs ran last year. Byron Leftwich ran the same looks, the same philosophies, and virtually the same game plans week after week despite consistent struggles. Perhaps things will be different under a new coach like Dave Canales, who openly embraces data that can help him find a competitive edge.

Time will tell if Dave Canales will be an upgrade over Byron Leftwich. He has yet to call a play as an offensive coordinator in either the college or pro ranks. But the arrows are pointing up.

Open communication and a welcoming of new information.

Yes, the arrows are pointing up indeed.

Watch Dave Canales On The Pewter Report Podcast

Check out the latest Pewter Report Podcast with Special Guest: Bucs OC Dave Canales by clicking the link below.