As you will have heard and read by now, Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales is headed elsewhere. Staying within the NFC South, Canales is being hired as the next head coach of the Panthers.

Suddenly, Tampa Bay’s offseason just got a lot less stable.

Todd Bowles went through nearly a dozen offensive coordinator candidates last offseason before ultimately hiring Dave Canales, a longtime assistant under Pete Carroll in Seattle. Canales had done phenomenal work with Geno Smith in 2022 and the hope was that he could do the same with Tampa Bay’s new quarterback after Tom Brady’s retirement.

Canales did just that, working extremely well with new Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield.

The former No. 1 overall pick who had bounced from Cleveland to Carolina to Los Angeles in 2022 led the Bucs to a 9-8 record and a playoff win while having a career year. He threw for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions during the regular season. Then, Mayfield had two 300-yard, three-touchdown games in the playoffs.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mayfield was named a Comeback Player of the Year candidate on Thursday.

And even after the Bucs were dumped out of the playoffs by the Lions on Sunday, it felt like the team really had something as long as it maintained some stability this offseason. Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds even wrote in last Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 that Tampa Bay had its head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback heading into 2024. At the time, it didn’t feel like Dave Canales was truly going to be a one-and-done in Tampa.

Now, that expected stability is gone.

The Bucs have to conduct another offensive coordinator search and with that, what happens with free-agent-to-be Baker Mayfield?

With Dave Canales Gone, What Does That Mean For Baker Mayfield?

Assuming Dave Canales was going to be back as Todd Bowles’ offensive coordinator in 2024, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Baker Mayfield would be back to quarterback the three-time defending NFC South champions.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What happens now? With Canales in Carolina, is Mayfield a lock to stick around in red, white and pewter?

The first domino to fall is what happens with Bowles. As harsh as it might seem after an NFC Divisional Round appearance, could he be let go in favor of the team trying to find an offensive head coach?

It wouldn’t be a shocker if a full reset is now on the table. Bowles is 17-17 over his first two regular seasons, and the reality of having a defensive head coach is that when he nails an offensive coordinator hire like Bowles did with Canales, you’re constantly at risk of losing your offensive play-caller at the first sign of success.

Head coaching change aside, the fact is that Mayfield will almost surely have to work with a new offensive coordinator wherever he goes, as Dave Canales already has a quarterback in Carolina — 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. Unless Mayfield signs on with a coach he’s worked with in the past (which is unlikely), this will be the latest case of instability that he’s had to deal with.

Mayfield has played for eight head coaches since 2018 and has worked with several different play-callers over the years as a result. In fact, the idea of him going into 2024 with Bowles and Canales was rare. For the first time in a while, he was going to be in a stable spot.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

That’s out the window now, and maybe Mayfield keeps his options a bit more open. He has said he’d love to be in Tampa Bay long term and he loves the organization and his teammates. But with his coordinator and play-caller gone, who knows?

The bigger domino to consider is who replaces Canales. If it’s quarterbacks coach Thad Lewis, who Bowles thinks highly of, that would at least give Baker Mayfield an inkling of stability.

But if the Bucs go elsewhere with their coordinator hire, do they make sure that coordinator runs an offense that Mayfield will fit? Given that he is a free agent, that would be putting all of their eggs in one basket.

So if all options are open, there’s no guarantee that Mayfield is a fit for the new offensive scheme. At the same time, there’s no guarantee that a new offensive coordinator would be 100% sold on bringing Mayfield back and may instead want to look toward a deep 2024 quarterback class.

The truth is this: We don’t yet know what Dave Canales’ departure means for Baker Mayfield in free agency. But what we can be certain of is that things just got a lot more murky for Bowles, Mayfield and the Bucs as the offseason gets underway.