The Bucs beating the Cowboys, 19-3, in Week 1 wasn’t a surprise. Tampa Bay was actually favored in that game with a -2.5-point spread at kickoff.

But sometimes, Week 1 of the NFL season can be full of surprises – and as a result, some overreactions.

In 2020, the Jaguars upset the Colts in Week 1, 27-20, but went on to lose every single game the rest of the year. While Jacksonville finished 1-15, Indianapolis was playoff-bound with an 11-5 record.

Last year in Week 1, Jameis Winston threw five touchdown passes as the Saints upset the Packers, 38-3, in Jacksonville. The game was moved to an alternate site because of a hurricane that affected New Orleans. But Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay would rebound and finish 13-4, claiming the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Winston would land on injured reserve with a torn ACL on Halloween, and the Saints would finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs.

But it’s not an overreaction to say that the Bucs just ended the Cowboys’ season in Dallas on Sunday Night Football. The reason?

Even before quarterback Dak Prescott was knocked out of the game with a hand injury that will require surgery, Mike McCarthy’s offense looked impotent. Granted, Tampa Bay has one of the league’s best defenses, but Dallas was held to just 71 yards rushing and was just 3-of-15 on third downs. Prescott didn’t have anyone to throw to outside of Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb. And with just one real weapon to worry about in the passing game, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles took Lamb away with a mix of man coverage and tight zone coverage.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Wide receiver Michael Gallup didn’t play and is still trying to come back from a late-season ACL tear from a year ago. But the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper, the team’s second-leading receiver who caught 68 passes for 865 yards (12.7 avg.) and scored eight touchdowns last year. Also gone was last year’s third-leading receiver, Cedrick Wilson Jr., who caught 45 passes for 602 yards (13.4 avg.) and scored six touchdowns. Neither Cooper nor Wilson were adequately replaced this offseason.

Wide receiver Jalen Tolbert, a third-round pick this year, has underwhelmed and was a healthy scratch and inactive for Week 1. Dallas just doesn’t have much of a passing game outside of Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz, who was held to 62 yards on seven catches. Lamb was targeted 11 times, but was smothered by the Bucs’ coverage and had just two catches for 29 yards.

Cowboys Suffered In-Game Injuries In Loss To Bucs

Not only did it lose Prescott for 6-8 weeks due to a broken right thumb on his throwing hand, but Dallas also lost starting left guard Connor McGovern for 2-4 weeks due to a high ankle sprain. Like the Bucs, the Cowboys also have a thin offensive line due to injury.

McGovern was expected to be a backup this year, but was forced to start at left guard when Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith suffered a serious hamstring injury. He’s out for the year, and that forced Dallas to move rookie left guard Tyler Smith to left tackle to replace him. Now, Dallas will have to start Matt Farniok, a third-stringer, at left guard.

The offensive line is also without last year’s starting right tackle La’el Collins, who is now in Cincinnati. Second-year undrafted free agent Terrance Steele took over and had three penalties in the opener against the Bucs. That’s not good news for Cooper Rush, who will take over for Prescott for the next two months.

Defensively, safety Jayron Kearse (knee) got hurt in the loss, as did defensive end Tarell Basham (thigh). Both are expected to miss a few weeks.

Dallas’ upcoming schedule is quite difficult. The team hosts the 0-1 Bengals, who are desperate for a bounce-back game from Joe Burrow, before back-to-back games against NFC East foes in the Giants and Commanders. Both are 1-0. It doesn’t get any easier the next two weeks, which are at the Los Angeles Rams and at Philadelphia. By then, the Eagles could already have a stranglehold on the division, while the Cowboys could be 1-4 if not 0-5. Home games against the Lions and Bears could prove to be challenging before the bye week when Prescott is set to return.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – Photo by: USA Today

History shows that without Prescott, the Cowboys are a below-average football team. When Prescott broke his ankle in Week 5 of the 2020 season and was out for the rest of the year, Dallas went 0-4 in the next four games. And that was with a more experienced backup QB in Andy Dalton rather than Rush. The Cowboys wound up going 4-7 down the stretch and finished 6-10 that season.

While Prescott may not be out the whole year, the Cowboys’ season could essentially be over by the time he returns. Without many weapons for the less-talented Rush to work with, Dallas will have to rely heavily on its defense for the next couple of months. Throw in the fact that head coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat with speculation that he could be replaced this season by defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

The last thing this banged-up, less-talented, underachieving Cowboys team needs is a media-fueled distraction. Not to mention the rumors of Sean Payton coming to Dallas next year as head coach.

After Sunday’s win, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles relayed an old Tom Moore war story, telling his troops, “Bury the dead, clean your rifle and march on.”

Tampa Bay didn’t just get an opening day victory over Dallas on Sunday night. They might have just killed the Cowboys’ playoff hopes just as the 2022 season started.