There are many different ways to analyze how Todd Bowles has done as head coach of the Bucs over the last two seasons since getting the job after Bruce Arians retired. In two seasons, Bowles has gone 17-17 in the regular season with two division titles and a 1-2 record in the playoffs. On the surface that does not sound impressive.

Todd Bowles had one year with Tom Brady at quarterback where the Bucs were expected to be a Super Bowl contender in 2022, but the Bucs stumbled throughout the whole season as Brady dealt with a highly publicized divorce off the field.

Last season, Tampa Bay had very low expectations going through a transition year after Brady’s retirement and timed with the arrival of Baker Mayfield, who needed to resuscitate his career. Yet the Bucs had a better season, finishing 9-8 and winning another division championship. In the middle of that year, the Bucs lost six of seven games, but rallied late and needed a 9-0 win against the lowly Carolina Panthers to clinch the NFC South again.

So what’s the vibe for Bowles heading into year three as head coach? Todd Bowles has been criticized for his lack of adjustments and in-game management, but he deserves acknowledgment that the players love competing for him and the fact that he kept the team together despite going through a rough turn.

Is Todd Bowles On The Hot Seat?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

In an article on CBS Sports by Cody Benjamin, he ranked the top eight coaches that are candidates to be on the hot season this season. Coming in at seven on the list was Todd Bowles. Here’s what Benjamin said about him.

“Bowles can coach a defense as well as anyone, and his group of 2023 underdogs — featuring the scrappy Baker Mayfield under center — nearly advanced to the NFC title game. But his clubs have also gone .500 over two seasons in arguably the weakest division in football, and his situational decision-making has drawn critique. With offensive coordinator Dave Canales gone, it’s fair to wonder if he can elevate a “run-it-back” roster.”

The part that hurts Bowles’ case the most is that his .500 record comes in a weakened NFC South. The division championships are slightly watered down when looking further at how Tampa Bay has advanced to the playoffs.

Bowles may not be able to afford a big slide like the Bucs had last season, making it all more important that they get out to a good start at the beginning of the season. Tampa Bay’s first six games are against Washington, Detroit, Denver, Philadelphia, Atlanta and New Orleans. Presumably they will be favorites against the Commanders, Broncos and Saints. If the Bucs can can win those games and go at least 1-2 against the others, a 4-2 start can give Tampa Bay some cushion before its gauntlet stretch of the schedule.

What Helps And Hurts The Bucs

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

That gauntlet, of course, is a stretch of games that feature home contests against the Ravens and Falcons in Weeks 7-8, at the Chiefs in Week 9 and home facing the 49ers in Week 10. A nightmare scenario would be losing all four. That would put the Bucs at 4-6 on the season, which is certainly not insurmountable given what happened in Tampa Bay in 2023.

The Bucs do have the benefit of having three of these four games at home, so a realistic outlook  could be splitting these matchups and ending up 6-4 heading into the Week 11 bye week with a much lighter schedule down the stretch.

What Todd Bowles can ill afford is another colossal losing streak when the team lost six of seven games last year. He is now three years in as Tampa Bay’s coach and the wait-and-see period is over. The Falcons will at least – on paper – be better, so the Bucs may not be able to afford an extended struggle and get away with it like they have before.

Tampa Bay did a great job filling out its roster with depth on offense and defense. It’s likely Bowles’ most talented roster that he’s had since taking over the team in 2022, so he should have all the pieces and in place to succeed once again. Finishing with another winning record and playoff appearance should cement his place as the Bucs head coach for the foreseeable future.