The Bucs are 2-0, but they’ve been here before.

They were here in 2021, and they turned that into a 13-4 record — the best regular season in franchise history.

They were also here in 2022, but they only turned that into an 8-9 season (though it did win them the NFC South).

And yes, they were also here in 2023, though that also turned into just a 9-8 finish (but again, they won the division and a playoff game).

So, how can the Bucs turn this 2-0 start into a season more like 2021 and less like 2022 and 2023? At the risk of the answer sounding as simple as “just lose fewer games,” there’s one big key: avoid the midseason losing skid that plagued them in the first two seasons of Todd Bowles’ tenure as head coach.

Bucs’ Quick Starts Fizzled Out In 2022 And 2023

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

The common theme between Tampa Bay’s last two seasons — outside of winning the division with records right around .500 — were midseason slides.

In 2022, Tampa Bay’s 2-0 start turned into 2-2, then 3-2, then 3-5 after a three-game losing streak in October that saw them lose at Pittsburgh and Carolina before a home loss to Baltimore. In fact, after the back-to-back wins to start that season, the Bucs didn’t win back-to-back games again until Weeks 9 and 10. Not to mention, they followed their Week 11 bye by losing three of four.

The same kind of skid came at a similar time in 2023, too. After starting 2-0, Tampa Bay hit its early bye week at 3-1 before losing four straight games — at home against Atlanta and Detroit and on the road at Buffalo and Houston. This time, after back-to-back wins to start the year, the Bucs didn’t string together two wins again until Weeks 13 and 14 — the beginning of their four-game win streak and run of five wins in six games to end the season.

So yes, it sounds simple, but for the Bucs to make 2024 more like 2021 and less like 2022 and 2023, avoiding that October/midseason slump is crucial. The 2021 version of the skid was only a stretch of back-to-back losses at the end of October and beginning of November, and the blow of those two losses was softened by the fact that the team had started 6-1 and followed those two losses with four straight wins to reach 10-3.

A Bucs Win In Week 3 Could Prove Massive

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs starting 2-0 for the fourth straight season — while impressive in that it set a new franchise record — could be shrugged off in a way. Just go back and read the first sentence of this article.

But while Tampa Bay’s 2-0 start isn’t uncharted waters, a Week 3 win over Denver on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium would put the team in a spot it’s rarely been before. It would mark the Bucs’ first 3-0 start since 2005 and just the fifth 3-0 start in franchise history.

Previous 3-0 Starts In Bucs History:

1979: Finished 10-6, won NFC Central
1997: Finished 10-6, earned Wild Card spot
2000: Finished 10-6, earned Wild Card spot
2005: Finished 11-5, won NFC South

So, starting 3-0 wouldn’t guarantee that the Bucs will extend their run of NFC South titles to four or get their streak of playoff appearances to five years. But it would certainly put Bowles and Co. on the right path.

The #Bucs haven’t started any season 3-0 since 2005 under Jon Gruden.

That changes on Sunday.

Tampa Bay won 11 games in 2005 and won the NFC South, by the way. pic.twitter.com/Gsv4aHQ8ZP

— PewterReport 🏴‍☠️ (@PewterReport) September 19, 2024

Bucs Can’t Afford To Lose To A Beatable Broncos Team

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

A win against the Broncos on Sunday would also be a step in avoiding another problem that plagued them in the last two seasons. Whether part of those midyear struggles or not, the Bucs lost some games they had no business losing.

In 2022, it was losses to Pittsburgh, Carolina and Cleveland. Last year, it was late-game losses to Atlanta, Houston and Indianapolis.

The Bucs can’t afford to lose this home game against a beatable Broncos team that is off to an 0-2 start and has a struggling offense led by a rookie quarterback. Tampa Bay has to win its winnable games just for the sheer fact that they’re winnable, but also because of the tough stretch that is looming.

Following this game, the Bucs will see their toughest stretch of the season, as they’ll face the Eagles, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers heading into their Week 11 bye. That run of games is a recipe for a midyear skid like we’ve seen in the last two seasons.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles, OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

But if Tampa Bay beats Denver and starts 3-0, it may just give them the right level of confidence to put together a 4-3 or 5-2 run in those games and hit the bye at 7-3 or even 8-2. At the same time, a win over Denver and a 3-0 start also protects them should they struggle to a 3-4 or 2-5 record in those games. Because even at that point, they’d hit the bye at 6-4 or — worst-case — 5-5.

The schedule from Week 4 through Week 10 really does feel like the perfect opportunity for the Bucs to prove that this year is different and that they’re the type of team that can avoid faltering when faced with tough sledding. But before they can prove that, they’ll need to take care of business on Sunday.

And if they do that, they’ll already be well on their way to making sure the story of 2024 isn’t a rewrite of 2022 and 2023.