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About the Author: Joshua Queipo

Avatar Of Joshua Queipo
Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.
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One area of emphasis for the Bucs this past offseason was to improve the depth of the wide receiver room. By the end of last year depth had become such an issue tight end Cam Brate was called upon to line up out wide for the team. It would seem Tampa Bay has added enough wide receiver talent this offseason that depth shouldn’t be a problem this year.

That depth was on full display last week in the preseason opener against Miami. With the Bucs’ top four wide receivers sitting out, several receivers were given the opportunity to shine. And shine they did.

Tyler Johnson, Jaelon Darden and Jerreth Sterns all made appearances on Pewter Report’s “Most Impressive” list. Sterns and Darden each registered touchdowns, while Johnson led the team in catches and yards.

However, the common refrain following the Dolphins game was that not every receiver had a good game. Scotty Miller was criticized for not registering a catch despite getting open on a deep nine route on the right sideline. Had the pass from quarterback Kyle Trask been out in front of him it could have been a house call. Instead, the pass was underthrown, forcing Miller to slow down and adjust to the throw. Miller’s defender was able to recover and break up the pass. Similarly, Cyril Grayson Jr. was shut out of the box score despite playing 24 snaps.

Is it that simple to evaluate receivers? If they had a bunch of catches or yards or a touchdown, they were good. If they didn’t have any of those things, they must not have been open or played well. As with most things in life and football it is nowhere close to being that simple.

How Often Is Each Receiver Getting Open?

There are many different ways to evaluate receivers. One fairly straight-forward one is to see how often they are able to create separation from coverage. Another way of saying this is “are they open”? And “open” is a very subjective term in and of itself. It has degrees. A receiver who has two yards of separation can be considered open. But five yards is much more. Which would you prefer? But by measuring the rate at which a receiver gets open we can begin to understand their value on the field.

I charted each receiver’s routes from the Miami game in terms of whether they were open or coming open when the quarterback went to throw, broke from the pocket, or was sacked. I then measured that rate as a percentage of their total routes run. My charting will be different than other sites as I threw out plays where the design was for a screen or a manufactured touch. I wanted to look at plays where multiple receivers were attempting to run routes and get open.

Scotty Miller 84.62%

Two plays stand out with Miller from Saturday. The first is the aforementioned fly route. The second is the touchdown to Darden. While Darden was open on the play, Miller was OPEN. Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself.

Darden and Miller run a double post against a single-high safety. The Miami linebackers bite on the play-action fake leaving an ocean of open field for Miller to fly through. With tight end Cade Otton occupying the left boundary corner, Miller is able to leverage the free safety with a hole the size of Montana. While Darden broke open under the corner with plenty of room over top of the widening safety, Bucs quarterback Blaine Gabbert opted for a more difficult throw. The result was positive, but I hope you can see Miller had a successful rep on that play.

And that wasn’t the only play of the night where Miller was open and just didn’t get a ball thrown his way.

Tyler Johnson 66.67%

Johnson was a star of the Bucs offense last Saturday. With six catches for 73 yards, Johnson helped move the team down the field on multiple drives. This was due in large part to him consistently getting open. Johnson was able to get open to varying degrees on two out of every three routes he ran. A lot of his success came on short middle-of-the-field routes against zone coverage. He was able to find soft spots in the zone and make secure catches throughout the night.

Cyril Grayson Jr. 66.67%

While Grayson did not register a catch on the night it wasn’t for lack of getting open. Watch him on this dig route at the bottom of the screen. After initially breaking to the outside, the Bucs receiver comes back in with nary a defender in sight.

Jaelon Darden 58.33%

Darden gets credit for his touchdown catch. But beyond that play he was able to find openings in the Dolphins coverage more than half the time. Here is a great play from a stacked alignment where he has all sorts of room up the seam before he starts to turn outside.

Jerreth Sterns 54.55%

Sterns had the memorable slot fade touchdown catch. But let’s not forget he wasn’t that open on the play. He ran a great route and made a fantastic catch, but the coverage was good. The ball placement was better. Despite that, Sterns still managed to get open on more than half of his routes.

On this catch late in the 4th quarter, Sterns makes a subtle move that ultimately helped create a ton of separation in a box of defenders. As he approaches the slot defender, he curves his route to the sideline. This helps widen that defensive back ever so slightly and creates more horizontal space for a bigger window to throw into. Once he accomplishes that goal, Sterns straightens out his route and provides a clean target for Trask.

Kaylon Geiger 46.15%

Geiger racked up four receptions for 52 yards. And 19 of those yards came on a manufactured touch in the form of a pop pass. Geiger made an impressive play reversing course to find an opening to exploit. But for the purposes of this evaluation, we throw that play out. Geiger failed to get open as much as some of the other receivers, but still registered a respectable rate. When he was open it was a thing of beauty. Here is one of my favorite routes of the game.

Geiger is lined up in the slot. He releases from an initial stutter-step to the inside. Once he gets Dolphins’ cornerback Elijah Hamilton turned to the middle of the field, he throws a cut to gain outside leverage. As Hamilton scrambles to recover Geiger breaks to the sideline with precision. I’ll add as an aside this was a great pass by Kyle Trask showing anticipation throwing to a spot while Geiger was still at the top of his stem.

Vyncint Smith 42.86%

Smith provided the smallest sample size, running less than 10 snaps. He managed to get open less than half the time. And the routes he did get open on weren’t the most impressive.

Here Smith is lined up out wide at the bottom of your screen. He runs a simple 5-yard hitch. He does get open, if only briefly. This is because his hip sync isn’t very deep and he advertises the break. That allows the corner to read the route quickly and come down on top of him.

Deven Thompkins 36.36%

Thompkins’ calling card for last week was his tight window catch on third down to help keep the potentially game-winning drive alive. You remember it, right?

It was a fantastic catch while falling for a ball placed in a spot where only Thompkins could get it. But did it have to be? Watch Thompkins’ break. He starts it at the 39 and catches the ball at the 31. That’s an awfully rounded route. With a crisper route he wouldn’t have had to contend with a safety falling on him as he made the catch. The first down marker was at the 39 where he started his break. Thompkins has a ton of potential, but he will need to work on cleaning up some of his route-running if he is to be consistently successful with the Bucs. That should help him get open more often.

The Bucs have some tough decisions ahead of them when it comes to which receivers will make the final roster and which one’s won’t. While production is important, a receiver’s production is highly dependent on many things outside of his control. In order for the Bucs to make the best decision possible they will need to isolate and evaluate the things each receiver can control. And that goes beyond how many catches, yards or touchdowns each person has in a preseason game.

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