Among the myriad of issues the Bucs offense had in 2023, one of them was the play they received at left tackle. Starter Donovan Smith, coming off of a career year, had his worst season as a pro. Dealing with an elbow injury he suffered in Week 1, he would miss three games (two due to the elbow). Traditionally an iron man, Smith missed the most playing time in his career in 2022. Additionally, he admitted during the season he was dealing with personal issues that may have affected his play as well.

The results of all of this were a season where he recorded the worst Pro Football Focus grade of his career while committing the most penalties by a lineman in the NFL. This, combined with the Bucs salary cap situation, has left Smith as a potential cut candidate headed into the 2023 season. And while the Bucs could save over $15 million in cash and save $9,950,000 off of the salary cap, cutting Smith is not as easy as it sounds.

The Argument For The Bucs To Keep Smith

Bucs LT Donovan Smith and Panthers OLB Brian Burns – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While his penalties (especially at the most inopportune times) and performance have fans clamoring for the Bucs to cut him, there is no obvious replacement on the roster. And while 2022 was his worst season, there is no reason to think that with improved health, and hopefully some positive closure to whatever personal issues he was dealing with, that Smith’s play in 2023 will move closer to his career mean.

That isn’t the play of 2021, which is his high-end outcome, but closer to the 2019-2021 version of Smith. The version that both helped lure Tom Brady to Tampa Bay and protected his blindside for a Super Bowl season as well as a 13-win, division title season.

If the Bucs expect that type of return, then Smith is worth his 2022 salary. To use a metric to describe that player, Smith’s PFF grades in those two years were 70.4 and 71.8. Brad Spielberger has right tackle Mike McGlinchey projected for an average of $15.5 million per year on his upcoming contract with similar marks at a position that is valued slightly less than left tackle. Keeping Smith for the final year of his deal allows the Bucs to focus on the abundance of other positions they need to fill with 23 upcoming free agents.

The larger issue in my mind with keeping Smith is he is not long for the team even if he plays out the final year of his deal. I can’t reasonably see a scenario where the Bucs re-up with him past 2023 and he is set to be a $5.3 million dead cap hit in 2024 if he isn’t cut this off-season. With that in mind the team may decide to roll the dice on a more high-variance option to replace him this year as they eye a post-Brady future.

The Internal Move Everyone Is Talking About (And The Potential Additional Move No One Is)

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With the traditional importance placed on the left tackle spot, many have conjectured that the Bucs could move on from Smith and move Tristan Wirfs over from right tackle to fill his shoes. This allows the team to put their best player in a position that has the most implied value. Wirfs would most likely enjoy the move as it would allow him to maximize his earnings on his second contract that is quickly approaching. But in doing so the Bucs end up in a very similar position, which is a hole in their starting offensive line. In today’s pass-happy NFL, teams can’t rely on just one good pass protecting tackle. They have to have two. And by jettisoning Smith Tampa Bay will still be left 50% shy of that goal.

If the Bucs go that route, they might be best served by moving 2022 second rounder Luke Goedeke back to his natural position to backstop Wirfs on the right side. While Goedeke had a trainwreck of a season at left guard he did manage a single start in week 18 at right tackle. The results were promising. The rookie looked more comfortable on the right side and wide and delivered his best blocking performance of the season.

2023 is looking more and more like a quasi retool season. It is the best opportunity for the team to try and find out what they have in the former Central Michigan tackle. If he can prove to be a starting caliber right tackle, they will easily recoup the value they sank in him when they traded back into the second-round last year to select him. This would also allow the team to clear out the fairly crowded competition for left guard that is anticipated for next season between Goedeke, incumbent starter Nick Leverett, and last year’s starting center Robert Hainsey.

Bucs Could Draft their LT of The Future

Picking at number 19 and 50, the Bucs could be in the sweet spot to just select Smith’s replacement in the first or second round of the NFL Draft. Players like Darnell Wright out of Tennessee or Dawand Jones out of Ohio State could step right into the starting lineup. The Bucs have shown they are not afraid of this approach in the past. Goedeke and Smith were both year one starters after being selected by Tampa Bay in the second round, along with former guard Ali Marpet. And Wirfs was a day one starter after the Bucs selected him 13th overall in 2020.

The one drawback to this plan is the opportunity cost of selecting a tackle this early. The Bucs have a secondary that is currently set to lose five of its top seven players. Add to those questions at quarterback, outside and inside linebacker as well as receiver, running back, and defensive line. By cutting Smith and drafting his replacement early it takes away at least one opportunity to address those questions with a high draft pick.

Use The Cap Savings To Draft A Wily Vet

What can $10 million in savings buy you on the open market? Probably not a Kaleb McGary or a Jawaan Taylor. While both could be signed with a deal structured to lower their year one cap hit to match the cap savings of the Smith cut or less, both are looking for and projected to get deals of four or more years. The Bucs are only a year or two away from having to dole out large deals to Wirfs, Devin White, and Antoine Winfield Jr. so they are most likely not looking to make long-term eight figure deals for average veterans.

Looking at a tier below and you find older journeymen tackles who will be little more than short-term stop gaps. These may be attractive options to a team that will be cap-strapped in 2023, but still with a legitimate chance to make a run at a division title. Kelvin Beachum has provided similar play to Smith’s 2019-2020 stretch. And at 33 years old he is projected for just a two-year deal at a total value of $3 million. George Fant is another intriguing name who has experience on both the right and left side. He could plug in on the opposite side of what the team decides to do with Wirfs. The trouble with Fant is, much like Smith, he is coming off of a poor 2022 marred by injuries after an excellent 2021 showing.

The Gamble I Would Like To See

Bucs LT Donovan Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Sticking with Smith or looking for a Vet stop-gap are too short-term focused for my liking. Goedeke to RT is an interesting gamble, but very risky. Drafting a long-term solution leaves too many other holes unfilled. Given the prospects of the upcoming season I am in favor of a 2019 Shaq Barrett like approach to the left tackle position this year. A gamble on a younger player who has shown flashes, but has been stuck behind some very talented players which have tanked his open market value due to lack of playing time. And I have the player in mind too.

Allow me to introduce you to left tackle Andre Dillard of the Philadelphia Eagles. Dillard, a former first-round draft pick in 2019, has 683 career snaps at tackle and some pretty solid PFF grades to show for it. The Eagles opted not to pick up his fifth-year option following the 2021 season after he lost the starting left tackle job to Jordan Mailata. This wasn’t so much a case of Dillard playing very poorly as it was Mailata hit the 99th percentile outcome of his potential development, being a physical specimen for the position who needed to learn football after being an Australian rugby player his whole life.

Dillard provides the Bucs with a unique opportunity to offer a one-year prove it type deal for a small investment. After missing the 2020 season due to injury he bounced back with a solid 2021 campaign, despite losing his job eventually to Mailata. That year he posted a 69.6 overall grade with PFF with a 71.7 pass blocking grade. He followed that up with 67.9 and 84.7 grades respectively this past season, albeit in very limited action (37 total snaps).

And prior to that here is the scouting report Lance Zeirlein of nfl.com had on him:

Talented four-year starter at left tackle with outstanding feet who offers an instant athletic upgrade for teams getting battered from the blind-side. Because of his scheme, Dillard will be a little behind in terms of his feel for set points and firing off the ball in the run game. While he could play with a little more ferocity as a finisher, he has the athletic ability to make all the blocks and the protection talent to become a good, early starter on the left side.

If he can show that the promise he once had as a high draft pick just needed some experience and opportunity, the Bucs could be in-line to give him a long-term deal in 2024 when they are getting their salary cap books right. Or they could go fully with the Barrett plan and franchise tag him in 2024 to make sure they are making the right long-term investment before needing to make a full decision in 2025. And if Dillard struggles in 2023? The risk was worth it for the potential and the Bucs can easily move on with a high draft pick in 2024.

A big reason the 2020 Bucs were able to win the Super Bowl was due, in part, to finding a diamond in the rough with Shaq Barrett.  Makes sense for them to try to repeat the process for their next championship team. In the process they could potentially solve both their short-term and long-term needs at left tackle.