Thank goodness the Bucs ownership isn’t as active on social media as Colts owner Jim Irsay. His penchant for tweeting has opened him up to more criticism from the football world as a whole than most other ownership groups. And more recently it has opened up a chasm between him and his star running back, Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor is widely regarded as one on the Top 5 running backs in the NFL and is entering the final year of his four-year rookie contract. For his career he has 3,841 yards rushing, 4,643 yards from scrimmage and 36 touchdowns in just three years. According to Pro Football Focus Taylor amassed 1,272 yards after contact in 2021.

He is, as with most running backs, frustrated with the current state of running back contract market. After both had very good seasons, Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys and Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants found very soft offers from their respective teams. The Colts, seemingly following suit have not made any offer of an extension to Taylor.

NEW: Colts owner Jim Irsay clarified his comments about running backs from yesterday. But he also made a surprising revelation in my conversation w him: The Colts have not presented a contract offer to Jonathan Taylor. At all. https://t.co/tvqxozZM2D

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) July 28, 2023

The comments Irsay needed to clarify?  They weren’t…great.

NFL Running Back situation- We have negotiated a CBA,that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides..to say now that a specific Player category wants another negotiation after the fact,is inappropriate. Some Agents are selling ‘bad faith’..

— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) July 26, 2023

Following those comments Taylor removed all references to the Colts from his social media. That led to a recent meeting between the owner and star player. Apparently, it also did not go…great.

Sources: #Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor has formally requested a trade after meeting with owner Jim Irsay. pic.twitter.com/BH7dhZAzUD

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 30, 2023

Bucs Have Unproven RB Room, But Jonathan Taylor Could Improve The Run Game

What does all of this have to do with the Bucs? Well, when your entire running back room has a combined 2,619 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns there is bound to be intrigue, if not outright interest, in one of the best running backs in the league.

Bucs RB Rachaad White Photo By: Cliff Welch/PR

Incumbent starter Rachaad White showed flashes of being special in 2022, but still averaged less than four yards per carry. Free agent acquisition Chase Edmonds has always been used as a change-of-pace back. His career high in rushing attempts is just 116 (2021).

Former third-round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn has never gotten off the ground with the Bucs and is most likely not long for the team after his contract expires at the end of this season.

As high as the team is on White, there is no question that a healthy Jonathan Taylor, if added to the Bucs roster would immediately vault into the RB1 spot. Taylor has 12 pounds on White in terms of size and almost a tenth of a second on him in the 40-yard dash.

Taylor proved in 2021 that if healthy, he can be the engine that drives an offense. White would immediately move into a secondary role similar to one that Nyheim Hines had played so well in Indianapolis. Taylor’s addition would immediately vault the Bucs from fourth to second in the NFC South for running back rooms.

Bucs Can Afford Jonathan Taylor’s Contract

Per Over the Cap, the Bucs have the least amount of salary cap in the NFL at just $388k. No matter what they will need to open up space in order to operate by the time the regular season rolls around. The two most likely moves are extending star wide receiver Mike Evans or restructuring the contract of outside linebacker Shaq Barrett.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield, Jr. and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor – Photo by: USA Today

Either of those moves will free up several million dollars in cap space. At which point the Bucs will be able to easily afford Jonathan Taylor’s contract. Taylor’s current cap hit with the Colts is $5,117,482. However, $813,482 of that is a proration of his original signing bonus which would stay with Indianapolis if he were traded. The amount that would transfer to the acquiring team would be Taylor’s $4,304,000 base salary.

And if the Bucs were to trade for Taylor and needed his cap number to be further reduced, they could accomplish that. The Bucs could convert $3,294,000 of his salary to a signing bonus and add four void years to Taylor’s contract. His resulting cap number would be just $1,668,800 for 2023 with a dead cap hit of $2,635,200 for 2024.

Although one would assume of the Bucs decided to give up the trade assets the Colts would be seeking in order to part with their star running back Tampa Bay would also be invested in giving Taylor the long-term contract he was seeking that precipitated this whole ordeal. But if the Bucs do not acquire Taylor, it won’t be because they cannot afford his contract.

What Would A Trade Package Look Like

Let’s entertain the idea of the Bucs trying to trade for Jonathan Taylor. Afterall, the NFC South is wide open, the Bucs are back-to-back defending division champs, and head coach Todd Bowles may be on the hotseat. Those are all reasons the Bucs may want to go “all-in” and acquire a running back who would instantly improve their 32nd overall rushing attack from 2022. What would that trade package potentially look like? Trades are based on precedent, so let’s see if their is any.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Lions just traded D’Andre Swift to the Eagles. There are some similarities between the two situations. Swift, like Taylor, was a second-round pick in 2020. But Swift has not been nearly as reliable or productive as Taylor, having less than half as many carries and yards while averaging 1/2 a yard less per carry. Swift netted the Lions a 2025 4th round pick and a 30 pick move up in the seventh round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Just last year at the trade deadline the Panthers dealt away a Top 5 running back in Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers received a king’s ransom in return, including a second-, third- and fourth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft along with a 2024 fifth-round pick. The distinction that is necessary to note here though, is that McCaffrey was under contract for three additional years beyond the one in which he was traded.

Given these two recent trades and the specific circumstances of each I would peg the trade compensation for Taylor at a 2024 third-round pick plus an additional late round pick in 2025.

Bucs Would Need To Be Committed To Taylor For The Long-Term

Compensation would need to go beyond just draft picks though. Jonathan Taylor has requested a trade because he believes the Colts don’t value him enough to commit to him with a long-term deal at a top-of-the-market rate of pay. For a team to commit trade assets to bring Taylor on they would need to be willing to pony up the long-term deal Taylor is seeking.

Christian McCaffrey is currently the market leader at running back, having signed a four-year deal for just over $64 million that gave him an average annual value of $16,015853. Following him is Alvin Kamara of the Saints who is averaging $15 million per season. The market dips considerably after these two with Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones all coming in between $11.5 and $12.5 million per season.

Taylor will most likely be looking for something between $13-$15 million per year with $25 million guaranteed. A possible extension that Taylor might be happy with would be for four years for $56.5 million in new money with a $20 million signing bonus and $28 million fully guaranteed at signing. Now if this was worked out as a part of the trade agreement it would negate the low cap number I cited earlier. The new cap number after the extension was signed would be $5,668,800. The Bucs could still afford this after executing the Mike Evans/Shaq Barrett move(s) so it again would not become a barrier to acquisition.

The Bucs Trading For Taylor Is Still Highly Unlikely

Given where the Bucs are on the winning curve, the trade assets involved in spurring the Colts to even want to part ways with Taylor and the likely contract it would take to appease the disgruntled running back, a trade is not likely in the cards for the Bucs. Oh and there is also this that happened as I wrote this…

Text from @Colts owner @JimIrsay on Jonathan Taylor’s trade request (as reported by @RapSheet): “We’re not trading Jonathan… end of discussion. Not now and not in October!”

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) July 30, 2023

Well, I guess that is the end of the discussion then.