Kirk Cousins is the new quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons.

Cousins will be signing a massive, four-year contract worth as much as $180 million, including a $50 million signing bonus. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero broke the news on X.

After spending six years in Minnesota, Cousins heads to Atlanta where many believe the Falcons are a quarterback away from not only contending for the NFC South championship but perhaps becoming a legitimate Super Bowl threat with a few more key additions this offseason.

In fact, there will be many pundits that will now say the Falcons are the team to beat in the division based upon Cousins’ arrival after Atlanta went 7-10 for three consecutive seasons under Arthur Smith. Some may even point to the fact the Bucs went 7-9 in 2019 before Tom Brady arrived in 2020 – the year Tampa Bay won Super Bowl LV.

Not so fast.

Former Bucs DT Ndamukong Suh and QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

To suggest that Cousins, who has a 1-3 record in the postseason, should be mentioned in the same sentence as Brady, who has the most wins, most postseason wins and most Super Bowl championships of any NFL player, is ridiculous. And to assume that Cousins taking over in Atlanta automatically means that his new team is the assumed division favorite over Tampa Bay, which has won the last three division titles, is premature.

After all, there were plenty of national media pundits who believed that Derek Carr’s arrival in New Orleans last offseason meant that the Saints were the front-runners in the NFC South. While the Saints finished with an identical 9-8 record as the Bucs, Tampa Bay still won the division due to a tiebreaker.

It’s also important to note that Cousins turns 36 this year and is coming off a torn Achilles, which caused him to miss the final nine games of the 2023 season. Cousins completed 69.5% of his passes for 2,331 yards with 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions last year and went 4-4 as a starter. He compiled a 50-37-1 record during his time with the Vikings, including a 13-4 season in 2022 which ended in a first-round home playoff loss to the New York Giants.

Bucs Have Recently Gotten The Best Of Kirk Cousins

Former Bucs QB Tom Brady and ex-Vikings QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

Quarterback Kirk Cousins rose to fame in 2015 at the Bucs’ expense when he led the Redskins to a 31-30 win over Tampa Bay in Washington after trailing 24-7 at the half. After the game, a jubilant Cousins exclaimed to the TV cameras, “You like that?!” which became his catchphrase.

But Cousins’ three-touchdown, 317-yard performance came against a Bucs team during the failed Lovie Smith regime when Smith believed that the old Tampa 2 defense could still be a staple base defense in 2015 – 15 years past its heyday. That devastating Bucs loss was dubbed “The Collapse At The Capitol” by Pewter Report, and Tampa Bay would finish 6-10 that season, which led to Smith’s firing.

Tampa Bay has had success against Cousins the last two times the Bucs have faced him during his time with Minnesota. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and his troops have gotten the best of Cousins – once in 2020 in Tampa Bay in Week 13, and again last year at Minnesota in the 2023 season opener.

During the Super Bowl run in 2020, the Bucs came back to beat Cousins, 26-14, after trailing 6-0 in the second quarter. Bowles’ defense sacked Cousins six times and forced him to fumble twice – one was recovered by Tampa Bay. Cousins was not intercepted that day, but only threw one touchdown, which came in the third quarter after Minnesota trailed 23-6.

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson and ex-Vikings QB Kirk Cousins – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cousins and the Vikings raced out to a 10-3 lead right before halftime and were poised to lead 17-10 if not for an interception by Bucs rookie nickelback Christian Izien at the goal line. In the second half, Baker Mayfield would lead Tampa Bay to a 20-17 comeback win in Week 1.

Cousins was sacked twice by Bowles’ defense in the 2023 season opener, including once by All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who forced a fumble and recovered it in Minnesota’s red zone. Cousins also fumbled a quarterback-center exchange with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka recovering the ball for Tampa Bay.

In two games against Bowles and the Bucs’ defense, Cousins, a pocket passer with limited mobility, has been sacked eight times, lost three fumbles and thrown one interception. He’s thrown just three touchdowns against Tampa Bay.

The Cousins-led Vikings averaged just 15.5 points against the Bucs in those two meetings.

Kirk Cousins Will Make The Falcons More Formidable

Despite the success Todd Bowles and the Bucs have had against Kirk Cousins while he was with the Vikings, the Falcons will be more formidable with better quarterback play. There’s no doubt that Cousins, a four-time Pro Bowler, is an upgrade over Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.

Bucs FS Antoine WInfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has had success against Atlanta plenty of times since Bowles arrived as defensive coordinator in 2019. The Bucs have a 7-3 record over the Falcons during that span, and Bowles has a 2-2 mark against Atlanta as the team’s head coach.

The Falcons moved on from Arthur Smith after three straight 7-10 seasons, but the team collected a lot of offensive talent during that time. Cousins will have one of the league’s emerging stars at wide receiver to throw to in former first-round pick Drake London, who has caught 141 passes for 1,771 yards and six touchdowns in his first two seasons in Atlanta.

Tight end Kyle Pitts, another former first-rounder, is a capable weapon at 6-foot-6, 246 pounds. He’s been underused the last two seasons but showed what he was capable of as a rookie in 2021, catching 68 passes for 1,026 yards (15.1 avg.) and a touchdown.

Atlanta also has an incredible one-two punch at running back with Tyler Allgeier, who topped 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2022, and Bijan Robinson, last year’s first-round pick. Robinson ran for 976 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie while catching 58 passes for 487 yards and four touchdowns.

Part of the reason why Minnesota struggled so much last season was because the Vikings’ ground game suffered without Dalvin Cook. Cousins will love the fact that he has one of the league’s best backfields to lean on this season.

Cousins will also benefit from improved protection up front. Guard Chris Lindstrom is one of the best in the game, as is center Drew Dalman. Tackles Kaleb McGary and Jake Matthews are serviceable on the outside.

Yet the cupboard wasn’t bare in Minnesota where Cousins had Cook, wide receiver Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson to throw to for years, and tight end receiver Jordan Addison this past season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the league’s best left tackles and right tackle Brian O’Neill is also quite good on the other side.

Former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

Expectations will be high upon Cousins’ arrival in Atlanta, as they should be after he signed such a huge contract. But Cousins has struggled in the postseason historically, just like the Falcons have struggled to beat the Bucs in recent years.

Atlanta is a better team with Cousins under center. Yet so is New Orleans with Derek Carr at quarterback, and that addition still wasn’t enough to dethrone Tampa Bay as the NFC South champion last year. The pundits can crown the Falcons all they want to this offseason, but the championships will be decided on the grass and on the turf this fall.

With Baker Mayfield, who still has the most postseason wins of any NFC South quarterback, back in Tampa Bay, and general manager Jason Licht working to improve the talent around him on both sides of the ball, don’t bet against the Bucs winning a fourth straight division title.