The Bucs find themselves in a similar situation as they were at this time last year. That’s on the outside of the playoff race with three games left, wondering how things went wrong.

In 2017, Tampa Bay was 4-9 with no shot at making the postseason. This season, the team’s 5-8 record is hardly any more hopeful, as it’s still a bleak chance from playing in January. The playoffs are a long ways away.

There’s something about this 2018 season that makes you feel that there should be more to it. The Bucs have more talent this year, but just seem to come out on the wrong end it when the ball doesn’t bounce their way. That’s been the case for this team in close games, and goes back to when Dirk Koetter became head coach in 2016. As talented as the Bucs are, they’ve yet to find the way to win more games that comes down to the wire. That’s a trend that needed to be changed in 2018, and the fact that it hasn’t happened may cost Koetter his job.

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Since becoming the head coach of the Bucs in 2016, Koetter has a record of 12-15 in games decided by seven points or less. Koetter had success in close games in his first year, going 6-4 in that area. But since then it has declined vastly, mustering a 3-7 mark last year and a 3-4 record this season in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Losing close games was a big reason why the Bucs went 5-11 last year, and are sitting at 5-8 today. At the end of the day, head coaches are paid to win football games, and that’s not something that Koetter hasn’t been able to do enough of over the last two seasons.

There can always been some outliers, such as a garbage-time touchdown at the end that cut a 14-point lead to seven with a second left on the clock. But what about games decided by three points or less? That gives more accuracy to a closer contested game, and tells more of the story.

During his head coaching career in Tampa Bay, Koetter is 5-7 in games decided by three points or less, including a 1-3 mark this season. Again, there’s a significant drop off after his rookie season as coach. Here’s a deeper dive into it.

2016 Season
10/10: Bucs 17, Panthers 14 – Win
11/20: Bucs 19, Chiefs 17 – Win
1/1: Bucs 17, Panthers 16 – Win

2017 Season
10/1: Bucs 25, Giants 23 – Win
10/22: Bills 30, Bucs 27 – Loss
12/10: Lions 24, Bucs 21 – Loss
12/18: Falcons 24, Bucs 21 – Loss
12/24: Panthers 22, Bucs 19 – Loss

2018 Season
9/24: Steelers 30, Bucs 27 – Loss
10/21: Bucs 26, Browns 23 (OT) – Win
10/28: Bengals 37, Bucs 34 – Loss
11/18: Giants 38 Bucs 35 – Loss

After a hot 4-0 start in 2016, Koetter’s Bucs have gone 1-7 in close games since. The NFL has always been a “What have you done for me lately?” kind of league, that 1-7 record over the last two years doesn’t help Koetter in the eyes of the Glazers, who will be deciding his fate in a few weeks. It also doesn’t help that Koetter is the only head coach in the NFC South that hasn’t taken his team to the playoffs at least once since 2016, either.

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have had quarterback and kicker problems over the last two seasons, and switched coordinators on offense and defense this year, but those can’t be the only excuses. Tampa Bay still has plenty of star players and firepower with the likes of wide receiver Mike Evans and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul – both of whom are having Pro Bowl-caliber seasons – among others.

It’s one thing to forgive Koetter for the string of close losses in 2017, but the fact that the trend has continued into what looks like another losing season in Tampa Bay means that it may ultimately cost him his job on December 31.