The Bucs won’t be pursuing Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson as the 2023 free agency period is set to open this week.

But they should.

For a team like Tampa Bay that has never drafted an actual franchise quarterback in its existence despite five swings and misses (Doug Williams, Vinny Testaverde, Trent Dilfer, Josh Freeman and Jameis Winston) in the first round, the idea of parting with two first-round picks as compensation to acquire Jackson should seem like a no-brainer.

As expected, Baltimore placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, meaning the team could be entitled to two first-round draft picks if he signs an offer sheet with another club and the Ravens decline to match it.

Bucs ILB Devin White and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photo by: USA Today

And if Kyle Trask underwhelms and Baker Mayfield, the QB the Bucs appear to be targeting in free agency, doesn’t pan out, Tampa Bay will be drafting another quarterback in 2024. So, why not invest in a proven QB this year – one with dynamic play-making ability and a 45-16 record as a starter in the regular season?

Since entering the league as the Ravens’ first-round pick in 2018, Jackson has never had a losing season, and he’s helped Baltimore make the playoffs in four out of the last five years. With Jackson, the Ravens are always a threat to make the playoffs. It’s logical to assume the same thing would happen with Jackson in red and pewter.

Lamar Jackson Would Make The Bucs A Perennial NFC South Favorite

Isn’t that the goal in finding a franchise-type quarterback – to be a perennial playoff contender? Jackson could certainly have that type of impact in Tampa Bay.

At age 26, Jackson is still in his prime and figures to be there for at least the next four years. Usually, when former MVP quarterbacks hit free agency (Tom Brady in 2020) or are made available for trade (Aaron Rodgers in 2023), it is when they are past their prime. Their careers with their new teams have an incredibly short shelf life as a result.

The biggest knock with Jackson isn’t the fact that he’s just 1-3 in the playoffs with three touchdowns and five interceptions in the postseason. It’s the fact that he’s been injured. Jackson has never played every game in any of his five NFL seasons. He missed the last five games in each of the last two seasons with ankle (2021) and knee (2022) injuries, and also missed the playoffs as a result.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photo by: USA Today

But that comes with the territory, as Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback – the best the NFL has seen since Michael Vick. Jackson has a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons (2019, 2020) in his career, and his 6.1-yard average and 24 rushing touchdowns are truly spectacular stats.

The NFL is moving to an age where mobility matters at the quarterback position now more than ever. It’s become more of a necessity than it is a luxury for quarterbacks to escape danger with their feet due to the ever-increasing speed of defensive linemen and pass rushers.

Todd Bowles and the Bucs saw that firsthand last year when Jackson ran the ball nine times for 43 yards and completed 71% of his passes for 238 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 27-22, come-from-behind win in Tampa Bay. Jackson’s forte is running the ball, and the Bucs have a new offensive coordinator in Dave Canales who understands the importance of a strong rushing attack. Canales plans to implement an offense that is heavy on bootlegs, QB waggles and QB keepers that would seem tailor-made for Jackson’s skill set.

Jackson is a better passer than most give him credit for being. He’s completed 63.7% of his passes for 12,209 yards with 101 touchdowns and just 38 interceptions. His 36 touchdown passes in 2019 led the league and helped him win the NFL MVP award.

Having weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to are far better than anyone he’s had in Baltimore. Evans has a big catch radius, which should aid Jackson’s completion percentage. Plus, the Bucs have a promising young tight end in Cade Otton and will likely draft another one this year because the position is so deep and talented.

Bucs Could Afford Lamar Jackson, But It Would Come At A Hefty Price

The biggest issue is money, as the Bucs would have to extend an offer that the Ravens would have a hard time matching. The biggest sticking point is the fact that Jackson wants a fully-guaranteed contract like the one Deshaun Watson got in Cleveland.

The Bucs could offer Jackson a six-year, $240 million deal with $200 guaranteed or something similar. It wouldn’t be fully guaranteed like Watson’s deal, but the Bucs – and other NFL teams – shouldn’t be penalized for Cleveland’s stupidity.

Bucs LB Lavonte David and OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It would take some sacrificing to absorb Jackson’s cap hit. Lavonte David surely wouldn’t be able to return, and the team would likely have to part ways with Shaq Barrett, Russell Gage and other Bucs next year to make it work for the long term. But these are necessary sacrifices to make as Tampa Bay would have found its star quarterback for years to come.

Cap wizard Mike Greenberg could structure the contract so that Jackson’s base salary could be around $5 million or so the first year and then prorate $35 million over the next five seasons. That would average around $47 million per year, and with the projected salary cap increases in the coming years, that would help Tampa Bay’s cap for the long haul.

The Bucs are going to spend $5 million on some quarterback this year – perhaps Mayfield or Jacoby Brissett. Why not spend that on Jackson instead?

Jackson, who hails from Pompano Beach, Fla., would probably love to return to his home state and play in the heat again rather than the cold winters up in Baltimore. His arrival in Tampa Bay would instantly make the Bucs the favorite to win the NFC South for a third straight year. And Jackson would make the Bucs relevant in the weaker NFC.

Not Pursuing Lamar Jackson Is Even More Of A Risk For Bucs

Not pursuing Jackson increases the chances of the Bucs having the fourth-best quarterback in the division this year and perhaps in years to come. For all the hope that Mayfield or Trask could suddenly light it up in Canales’ offense, it’s fair to point out that Mayfield flamed out in Carolina last year and Trask couldn’t beat out Blaine Gabbert for the backup job last summer.

For the price of just two first-round picks – and, of course, $240 million – the Bucs could stay relevant and in the hunt for the NFC South title for years to come. It’s rare that a franchise goes from one great, dynamic quarterback to the next. San Francisco did it with Joe Montana and Steve Young. Green Bay did it with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Those are the exceptions and not the rule.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But for franchises like New England and New Orleans that enjoyed over a decade of spectacular QB play from Brady and Drew Brees, respectively, finding the successor to a legend can prove to be quite difficult. Cam Newton/Mac Jones and Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton didn’t come close.

That’s why the Bucs should seize this opportunity and swing for the fences once again.

The Glazers have made huge splashes before in trading for Keyshawn Johnson and making him the highest-paid receiver in the league in 2000. And they traded a slew of premium draft picks and cash for Jon Gruden in 2002.

The Glazers opened up the checkbook for Monte Kiffin in 2003 and Todd Bowles in 2021, making each the highest-paid defensive coordinator in the league at the time. And Bucs ownership also made Simeon Rice the highest-paid defensive player in the league after the team’s initial Super Bowl win in 2002. Let’s not forget the tens of millions of dollars it took to sign Brady, too.

Jackson comes with some risks with his injury history and postseason track record. But certainly no more risk than the Bucs would have with Trask, Mayfield or Brissett under center.

The Glazers know all too well that their franchise was completely irrelevant for 11 years before Brady’s arrival. Now, Brady and the head coach who delivered the Bucs their second Super Bowl – Bruce Arians – are gone.

Even if the Ravens decide to match the Bucs offer in this scenario, at least general manager Jason Licht and Bowles get credit for trying. Tampa Bay can always sign Mayfield and have him compete with Trask if it doesn’t work out.

That’s an acceptable backup plan – after trying to land Jackson first.