Pewter Nation, here we go!

I can’t tell you how thrilled I am to join the Pewter Report staff as the Bucs prepare for year two of this franchise turnaround under Bruce Arians. I thought it might be helpful for Tampa Bay fans, who likely have no idea how I feel about the roster and its’ outlook for 2020 and beyond, to read my breakdown of each position group for the team as we head into the meat of the offseason.

I’ve included my past evaluations of key young players on the Bucs, as well as my thoughts on their 2019 play from watching some film, and what could be in store for each position group in 2020.

Quarterbacks

Past: I was a big fan of Jameis Winston coming out of college, believing he had all the tools to be a star in the NFL.

Present: In seven years as a starting quarterback (two in college, five in the NFL), Winston has probably improved as little as any quarterback with his gifts that I have ever seen. Growth is not linear, and happens at different times and in different ways for everyone, but I think it is highly unlikely that Winston will ever exchange his reckless style of play for a more controlled aggression that has allowed other quarterbacks with his type of talent to thrive in the NFL.

Future: In my mind, the Bucs have two options: tagging Winston for one more year or letting him walk and signing a veteran. It is clear from his final presser that Arians believes this roster can win now and believes the team’s secondary will improve enough to have a strong defense next season under Todd Bowles’ tutelage.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

While I don’t think the Bucs will regret letting Winston leave, they could regret his replacement more if they can’t land one of the top available quarterbacks this offseason. Does Philip Rivers offer enough to put Tampa Bay over the top? He might have been the only quarterback less reckless than Winston last season, and there’s obviously no future upside to the signing, as it would likely be just a two-year deal at most in a win-now environment. At this point, I’m not sure Rivers offers a better solution than Winston, and he clearly possesses less long-term potential.

The one (perhaps) realistic option that the Bucs should let Winston walk for is Tom Brady, but is he really going to come to Tampa? As much as I love where the Bucs seem to be headed, other teams (Patriots, Colts) look like better situations for “The GOAT” to land in for the 2020 season.

I don’t think there is any way the Bucs land one of the top three quarterbacks in the class (LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert). After that trio the other options can’t help Tampa Bay win right away, and/or aren’t fits for Arians’ vertical passing scheme.

It’s Winston or free agency for your future Bucs QB, with my guess being that they’ll do everything they can do lure Rivers to Tampa Bay. Yet tagging Winston may still end up being the smarter play.

Running Backs

Past: I had a first-round grade on Ronald Jones II, believing that he was one of the more exhilarating running backs in college football. I enjoyed Dare Ogunbowale as a versatile Day 3 sleeper in 2017.

Present: Jones is improving, but issues in pass protection and overall consistency are a concern as he moves into a season where the team would love to have him take over more of a feature role. Peyton Barber may not be back, as he is currently slated to hit the free agent market, while Ogunbowale is a solid No. 3 option that can catch, protect and play special teams.

Bucs RB Ronald Jones II – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Future: If Jones can take another step forward this season, the Bucs would love to be able to focus elsewhere with their first two picks in the draft. However, Arians cares more about a back’s ability on passing downs than anything else, and that is a clear weakness of this group heading into the offseason.

The most important thing the Bucs can do is to remember that they can find value at running back later in the draft. They can’t get tunnel vision on someone like LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, whom I love, at No. 45 while ignoring needs on their lines and other more impactful positions. That isn’t to say Edwards-Helaire should be off their board at all, just that they should carefully weigh the value of a part-time running back against pass rush and pass protection help, should they come to that crossroads in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Bucs won’t be a run-heavy or running back-oriented offense in 2020 – not with a pair of Pro Bowl wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – and their draft strategy should reflect that principle.

Wide Receivers

Past: I had Evans as WR3 and in my Top 10 during the critically-acclaimed 2014 receiver draft class, while I was definitely too low on Chris Godwin with early third-round grade given his talent, yet that’s exactly where Tampa Bay selected him. I was lower than most on Breshad Perriman, a former first-round pick, but was willing to role the dice on traits late in the second round if he had lasted that long.

Present: The Bucs have the best wide receiver duo in the NFL with Evans and Godwin, and a possible budding asset in Perriman based on how he came on late last season. After that, it drops off quickly.

Future: I see the wide receiver position as the sneakiest “need” for the Bucs this offseason. While some might suggest it might be a Day 3 position to target for Tampa Bay, such has been the case with the two most recent PewterReport.com 2020 Bucs’ 7-Round Mock Drafts, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team use one of their first three picks on a receiver, especially if Perriman leaves for more money elsewhere in free agency.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin Photo by: Getty Images

Both Evans and Godwin suffered hamstring injuries late in the year, and Arians’ offense has always relied heavily on wide receivers to win at all levels of the field. He loves to utilize three-receiver sets, consistently spreading the ball around to three or four targets in the passing game throughout his career. This goes back to his Arizona and Pittsburgh offenses.

With the Steelers, Arians had Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle El and Nate Washington at different times over his five years as the team’s offensive coordinator. And that was in an offense that actually used a tight end in Heath Miller.

In Arizona, Arians sported Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, John Brown, Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson, and that isn’t even counting David Johnson, who Arians wanted in the draft because he could basically use him as a wide receiver half of the time. Bottom line: Arians has spent plenty of time as a wide receivers coach and he has proven to be a big believer in drafting the position early and often. General manager Jason Licht will listen to him, especially if Perriman has priced himself out of Tampa Bay. I’ll have some good wide receiver fits for his scheme in another article coming out later in February.

Tight Ends

Past: I had a first-round grade on O.J. Howard coming out of college, and he was also one of the more impressive Senior Bowl prospects I’ve ever seen. Having said that, my one disclaimer was that I’m not sure he ever made a contested catch at Alabama (or was put in position to), so there was an element of unknown in the area of ball skills and tough catches that made him a risky prospect.

Bucs TE O.J Howard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Present: Arians has made it clear he needs Howard to step up as a blocker and receiver if he is going to be in Tampa Bay long term. Howard has the perfect athletic traits to thrive even in an Arians’ offense, but he simply hasn’t developed as a route runner or pass catcher yet. Cameron Brate is reliable, but too expensive at $6 million at age 29, and Antony Auclair should return as a solid blocking option.

Future: The future at this position is very much to be determined. It’s not inconceivable to see Howard traded or Brate released if he won’t take a pay cut. My guess is that if either of these things happen, the Bucs will look to cheap veterans who can block to fill their roles, rather than spending high-end assets on the position – especially with Arians utilizing a receiver-driven passing offense.

Offensive Line

Past: When they came out in the draft, I had second-round grade on Ali Marpet, a third-round grade on Donovan Smith and fourth-round grade on Alex Cappa. Those are the only Bucs offensive linemen I had pre-draft evaluations on.

Bucs RT Demar Dotson – Photo by: Getty Images

Present: The Bucs offensive line may not be elite, but it is finally (mostly) stable, at least for this year. If 34-year old Demar Dotson wishes to keep playing, the Bucs would be wise to bring him back on a one-year deal, which would return all five starters from a year ago.

Future: Ryan Jensen, Smith and Marpet are obviously locked into starting roles, but the Bucs could bring in competition for the improving Cappa, as well as look for the long-term replacement for Dotson (and perhaps eventually for Smith as well). Offensive tackle is high on Tampa Bay’s priority list in the draft, and for good reason. Depth is also an issue, which is another reason why re-signing Dotson and then drafting a tackle high could be the best path for Licht this offseason.

Defensive Line / Outside Linebackers

Past: The only current Bucs defensive linemen that I evaluated coming out of college were nose tackle Vita Vea (second-round grade) and outside linebacker Carl Nassib (fourth-round grade), who played defensive end in college.

Present: Tampa Bay has transformed from one of the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL two years ago (22 sacks in 2017) to one of the league’s best (47 sacks in 2019), largely due to the additions of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Nassib and Vea. Arians has made it clear he would like to keep this defensive line together, but will the Bucs have enough cap room?

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: May Holt/PR

Future: Barrett is a lock to receive long-term, big-money deal, which will put the Bucs in an interesting position in regards to negotiations with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, Pierre-Paul and, to a lesser extent, Nassib. Anthony Nelson was drafted in the fourth round last year to potentially replace Nassib, although he didn’t do much during an injury-plagued rookie season.

I’ve always been of the opinion that Pierre-Paul is one of the more up-and-down players in the NFL, but I haven’t studied enough of his 2019 film yet, so I’m open to the possibility of a cost-efficient re-signing in Tampa Bay. It is important to remember that he is 31 with significant injury history and is likely to experience a drop-off in production in the near future. Having said that, the Bucs have few options on the roster to offset his loss, so edge defender would likely move to the top of their needs list if JPP were to walk.

At 33 with his best days clearly behind him, Suh shouldn’t be an issue to re-sign short term, although that would mean there might not be room for Nassib to return. An interior defensive line with Suh, Vea, William Gholston, and possibly Rakeem Nunez-Roches and/or Beau Allen could be a lot worse, but the Bucs would be wise to keep an eye out for interior pass rush help, likely through the draft. If Suh doesn’t return or returns on just a one-year deal, this could be the position to target in Round 1. That’s why PewterReport.com had South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw as the Bucs’ first-round pick in its first mock draft of 2020.

Inside Linebackers

Past: Devin White was my LB2 in last year’s class, slightly behind Devin Bush. White’s upside is sky high, but he is still pretty raw, as we saw during his rookie season. Jack Cichy was one of my favorite Day 3 sleepers in his draft class when he came out, but injuries are a big concern for a defense that is no stranger to banged-up linebackers.

Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Getty Images

Present: At age 30, Lavonte David remains one of the top linebackers in the NFL, while all signs point toward White reaching his potential in the next year or two. If Cichy is healthy and Kevin Minter returns, the depth should be solid heading into 2020.

Future: Inside linebacker won’t be a priority for the Bucs heading into this offseason, but it could be in 2021. David will be a 31 year-old free agent (unless he gets re-signed this offseason, as PewterReport.com reports he might) and Cichy is an exciting but unproven commodity with an extensive injury history. I wouldn’t be surprised if a Day 3 pick is spent on an athletic, high-upside linebacker with special teams potential.

Cornerbacks

Past: I was a big Sean Murphy-Bunting fan in last year’s draft, valuing him right around where he was drafted by Licht. I haven’t been as high on the rest of his recent cornerback selections, grading M.J. Stewart and Jamel Dean in the fourth round and Carlton Davis in the third.

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Present: Both Murphy-Bunting and Dean flashed enough their rookie season to get us excited about their full-time roles in 2020, while Davis has been steady without much ball production. Stewart could be in trouble however, as his brief tenure in Tampa Bay has been highly unimpressive.

Future: If the majority of Tampa Bay’s defensive front returns in free agency, their defensive backfield will be where the biggest question marks on the roster lie outside of the quarterback position. If Dean, Murphy-Bunting and Davis can all take another leap next year, the Bucs could be a dangerous defense. But if sophomore slump hits for the two second-year corners and Davis still struggles to find the football in the air, the Bucs’ playoff hopes will take a hit.

Regardless, it is unlikely for there to be any high-profile additions in the secondary this offseason, but an older, more experienced veteran corner would be a terrific addition to provide some depth and tutelage to an incredibly young group.

Safeties

Past: I valued Mike Edwards right around where Licht drafted him last year, but Justin Evans a few years ago was a big reach by my evaluations, as I had him graded in the fourth round.

Present: Bowles loves to play three safeties at a time, so depth here is really important. Andrew Adams has been a stabilizing presence, but isn’t the playmaker the Bucs are hoping Evans can be at free safety. Evans flashed potential as a rookie, but injuries have put his career path in jeopardy after the 24 year-old missed the last season-and-a-half with foot injuries.

Bucs S Mike Edwards and LB Devin White – Photo by: Getty Images

Edwards’ versatility to play any safety spot is a big reason why the Bucs selected him in the third round, while Arians said after the season that D’Cota Dixon “might have been their starting strong safety” if he hadn’t gotten injured before the season even began. Instead, Jordan Whitehead had a solid season in that role, and should be one of their top three options again next year.

Future: Tampa Bay’s offseason plans at this position could truly go to either extreme. If Evans is back healthy the Bucs may not address the position at all this offseason, electing to roll with Evans, Whitehead and Edwards as their top three, while Dixon and perhaps Adams provide quality depth and special teams ability.

If Evans can’t return however, free safety could quickly move to the top of their offseason needs list, perhaps even warranting a first-round pick like Alabama’s Xavier McKinney. Whitehead and Dixon aren’t well-suited for a single-high role, and Edwards was better closer to the line of scrimmage last season as well. Adams doesn’t provide the playmaking ability that Bowles is looking for at the free safety position, and if the Bucs want playmakers in the secondary, they probably have to spend a first- or second-round pick to get one.

I’ll have more on free safety options via the draft for the Bucs in a future story later this month.

Summary

The Bucs can be a playoff team in 2020 if the following three things* happen:

1. Quality quarterback play with far less turnovers.

2. An extremely young and exciting secondary takes a collective step forward under a secondary guru in Bowles.

3. The offensive line doesn’t take a step back in pass protection and improves in run blocking.

(*this assumes re-signings of Barrett, JPP, Dotson and Suh, as well as no significant injuries/suspensions)

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Getty Images

Other things will help, like White improving, a better running game, a consistent WR3 emerging and Vea beginning to produce at a first-round level, but I firmly believe if the three things I listed occur this season for Tampa Bay, the Bucs will be in the playoffs next January.

Winds of change are already blowing in Tampa Bay, and I’m excited to be onboard for what’s next.