The Bucs’ selection of defensive tackle Calijah Kancey in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft was a bit of a surprise last year. Could Tampa Bay make another surprise pick in this year’s first round?

With pressing needs at interior offensive line and edge rusher, and secondary needs at wide receiver and cornerback, it makes sense that the Bucs would target one of those players with the team’s No. 26 pick. But will Tampa Bay be tempted to draft one of the premier quarterbacks if one that the team is high on is still available late in the first round?

What if Michael Penix Jr. is still on the board when the Bucs are on the clock and what if the team has a very high grade on the Washington quarterback? Tampa Bay just signed Baker Mayfield, who turns 29 on April 14, to a three-year contract this offseason. But the chance to get a supposed franchise quarterback might be too good to pass up if the team sticks to the “best player available” strategy.

There could be as many as six quarterbacks selected in the first round this year. USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye are expected to be drafted with the first three picks. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is believed to go somewhere in the Top 10, possibly with Minnesota trading up to get him.

After those four QBs, Penix and Oregon’s Bo Nix are vying to be selected next – and somewhere in the first round. As for Penix, he’s excited to play anywhere in the NFL. But the chance to play for his hometown team would be special.

“It’s home,” Penix said of the Tampa Bay area at the Senior Bowl. “It’s home. I’m originally from Dade City, Florida, 30 minutes north of Tampa. I moved out to Tampa my last two years of high school. Man, that’s home. It’s still home and it means everything. That’s where I grew up, that’s where I came from. This is my background and it’s going to be on my forever. I got it tatted on me. It’s always going to be.”

Bucs Could Use Another QB To Compete With Kyle Trask

Bucs QBs Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Baker Mayfield won’t play forever, and the Bucs could use an upgrade at backup quarterback where Kyle Trask is entering a contract year. Trask has yet to show he can develop into a starting-caliber QB, and perhaps Tampa Bay could use another candidate to contend to be Mayfield’s successor in time.

Former Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, who has been dubbed “The Quarterback Whisperer,” has spent time studying this particular 2024 quarterback class over the past couple of seasons with general manager Jason Licht. He revealed to the Tampa Bay Times that his favorite happens to be Michael Penix Jr., who grew up in Dade City just north of Tampa and played high school football at Tampa Bay Tech.

Penix was one of four quarterbacks the Bucs had a formal interview with at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis last month. Tampa Bay also formally interviewed Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Tulane’s Michael Pratt. With Penix’s ties to the Tampa area, the Bucs can invite him for a local pre-draft visit without having to use one of their Top 30 visits on him.

Michael Penix Jr. Showed He Was A Winner At Washington

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Michael Penix Jr. began his career at Indiana, where he played for four years and completed 59.4% of his passes for 4,197 yards with 29 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. But he suffered four season-ending injuries with the Hoosiers, including two torn ACLs and two shoulder injuries.

Penix transferred to Washington in 2022, where he guided the Huskies to an undefeated season last year and a 37-31 playoff win over Texas before losing to undefeated Michigan, 34-13, in the national championship game. That was the second time Penix defeated Texas, beating the Longhorns in the Alamo Bowl, 27-20, to end the 2022 season. The Huskies finished 11-2 that year, which was Penix’s first at Washington.

Penix completed 65.4% of his passes for 4,903 yards with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and was only sacked 11 times last season. In his first year at Washington in 2022, Penix completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards with 29 TDs and seven INTs.

But despite the gaudy statistics and his 25-3 record with the Huskies, there are several questions and concerns around Penix’s game and how it will translate to the NFL.

There Are Several Reasons Why Michael Penix Jr. Isn’t Considered A Top 10 Pick

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Aside from stacking up wins and improving statistically at Washington, the best thing Michael Penix Jr. did over the final two years was stay healthy. That’s critical to his draft status, although some NFL teams may still have concerns about his lengthy injury history.

“If he didn’t have that those injuries, we would be talking Top 5 pick as far as that position and how good of a thrower he is,” said ESPN NFL analyst and former NFL QB Dan Orlovsky on the Pat McAfee Show. “But that’s a massive dice roll because if you, as a general manager, draft that guy and he gets injured again with the history [you’re fired].”

Penix has a strong arm is regarded as one of the best deep ball throwers, which is why former Bucs head coach Bruce Arians is a fan, but he needs more touch on short and intermediate throws. That was apparent at the Senior Bowl where Penix had a so-so week of practice and didn’t put himself in contention to be a top QB prospect on the same level with USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

In fact, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler, likely a third-round pick, outplayed Penix and Oregon’s Bo Nix during the week of practice in Mobile, Ala. And there is a good chance that Penix could be on the board when the Bucs select with the No. 26 overall pick. Some NFL Draft evaluators believe Penix is a second-round pick. Pro Football Focus has him as its No. 48 overall prospect.

Part of criticism around Penix is the fact that he was surrounded by a massive amount of NFL talent. How much of Washington’s success was driven by Penix, and how much of Penix’s success was attributed to such a strong supporting cast?

Washington WR Rome Odunze – Photo by: USA Today

Wide receiver Rome Odunze is considered to be a Top 10 pick in this year’s draft, and fellow receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are destined to be Day 2 selections. Washington had two NFL-caliber offensive tackles in first-rounder Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten, a Day 3 prospect. Tight end Devin Culp and running back Dillon Johnson also have Day 3 grades.

Some NFL teams will knock the fact that Penix is left-handed, as it could interfere in how offensive protections and throwing progressions are designed. The vast majority of starting quarterbacks in the NFL are right-handed.

Penix also operated almost exclusively from the shotgun, and threw mostly outside the numbers rather than across the middle of the field. He’ll need to work on that at the next level. Most NFL Draft evaluators believe that Penix will need some time to develop in the NFL, pointing to his struggles during Senior Bowl week, which was more of an NFL practice environment than what he experienced at Washington.

Michael Penix Jr. Rebounds With A Great Combine, Pro Day

Michael Penix Jr. rebounded from a mediocre Senior Bowl week with a nice throwing session at the NFL Scouting Combine, where he was more consistent than Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and outperformed South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Oregon’s Bo Nix. He answered even more questions at his pro day last week at Washington.

Penix didn’t run at the Combine, but opted to run one 40-yard dash at his pro day where he turned some heads with his speed. Penix ran in the 4.5 range, which was a bit surprising considering he’s a pocket passer and rarely scrambles for yardage. According to ESPN’s Field Yates, multiple scouts timed Penix’s lone run at 4.56 to 4.59.

Penix ran for only eight yards on 35 carries in 15 games last season. He had just 92 yards rushing in 13 games at Washington in 2022.

“I’m a 4.4 guy, in my opinion,” said Penix, who was the runner-up for last year’s Heisman Trophy. “Some people had 4.46, some people had 4.5, but that’s unofficial, so I’m good. I just showed I can run, so I feel good.

“I was only running one time to show I can run and that’s it. I was done.”

Penix also posted a 36.5-inch vertical at his pro day and had a broad jump of 10 feet, 5 inches, which showed off his athleticism. Both of those numbers were better than any other quarterback in Indianapolis, and Penix is the only top quarterback outside of Rattler, who has even run a 40-yard dash this offseason.

Penix had a very good outing when it came to throwing the ball at his pro day, and his testing numbers prove he is actually one of the most athletic QBs in this draft class.

“I don’t like missing throws,” he said. “I missed like three throws, but I felt good, though. I felt good. Missing three throws out of 60, I can’t complain.”

Do The Bucs Think Highly Enough Of Michael Penix Jr. To Draft Him In Round 1?

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

So the big question for Tampa Bay is what to do if Penix is still on the board at No. 26? Do the Bucs address more pressing needs at other positions? Or will they be tempted to take one of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, especially if some of the Bucs’ top targets are already off the board when the team is on the clock?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles addressed the team’s interest in the quarterback position in this year’s draft at the NFL Annual Meeting last week.

“I think you always look at quarterbacks in the draft,” Bowles said. “You never know if someone is going to fall in your lap. You have to take a peek at them, so we’ll always look at quarterbacks in the draft.

“Quarterbacks are more than just the Top 5 guys that go in the draft. There are a lot more quarterbacks that can help you – if not immediately, then down the line. Those are hard to come by. So anytime you can try to get one you make sure you look at them.”