We are six weeks into the NFL season and despite a high-scoring offense the whispers about Mike Evans have started. Do you hear them? I do.

Let me start by saying, while Mike Evans’ record consecutive 1,000-yard season streak, which currently stands at 10 years, is cool, it’s not something that really interests me in the same way it captivates Bucs fans the world over. But it is a topic of conversation that is at the forefront of Bucs dialogue so I thought I would address the conversation head-on.

Currently, Evans has 25 catches on 42 targets for 310 yards and five touchdowns. Extrapolate that pace over a 17-game season and he is on pace for 111 targets, 71 catches, 878 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Those yards.

Uh oh.

Everyone breathe.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The lack of yards – Evans is averaging just 51.7 per game – has some fans concerned offensive coordinator Liam Coen is mismanaging the future Hall of Famer. Typically, this kind of analysis leads to “That’s why the offense is stuck.”

But this year that’s a hard argument to make for an offense that ranks tied for first in scoring, sixth in EPA/play and tied for third in success rate. Evans isn’t getting his yards, but the offense is still running quite well.

Setting aside his effect on the machine as a whole, what could be causing the dip in production? Naturally, the first factor we should look at is target share. He is currently seeing 6.5 targets per game. That would be the lowest total of his career, trailing the next closest year by just over one target per game.

But this isn’t an extreme outlier, and Evans will theoretically benefit from an extra game this season. And when you factor in his 64.1% catch rate, the second-highest catch rate of his career mind you, his catches per game get very much in line with previous seasons. Evans is averaging 4.2 catches per game which joins six other seasons at a sub-five catch per game level.

Again, these numbers are depressed, but not to a degree that would necessarily prohibit Evans from reaching his annual record-holding threshold.

So, What Gives?

Let’s dive a bit deeper, shall we? Let’s take a look at his average yards per catch by depth this season vs. year’s past.

Bucs WR Mike Evans Photo by: USA Today

Mike Evans’ yards per catch on throws of less than 20 air yards has remained fairly static over the years. This year’s 7.7 mark on throws of less than 10 air yards is the highest mark for those throws to him since 2020. And his 16.3 yards per catch on throws of 10-20 air yards is 0.2 higher than his career average.

But those deep throws? Well, they aren’t getting thrown as much as they used to.

His 23 yards per catch on deep balls would be the lowest of his career by a considerable margin. But it’s not just what he’s generating when he’s catching deep balls. It’s the passes themselves. They aren’t there. Like, at all.

If you had to guess how many deep balls Evans has caught this year, what would you posture? Would it be one? Because that’s what it is.

And while his catch rate on those passes is at a career low 20%, it’s the frequency of these passes that is most concerning. Through six weeks he has been targeted just five times on passes of 20+ air yards. That’s just 12.8% of his targets. That’s a career low as well, again by a demonstrative margin.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Evans has long maintained that the record is nice, but he would gladly trade it in for wins. And the team is winning and scoring a lot. And it’s not like the offense has needed those deep shots this year, and the lack of them aren’t hurting the team’s ability to hit explosives. The Bucs are currently tied for 10th in the NFL in explosive pass plays.

But for fans who have long worn Mike Evans’ consecutive 1,000-yard seasons record as a badge of honor for the past decade, Evans will need to see – and catch – more deep targets to keep his record intact. Because while he is by no means a slouch on shorter-breaking routes, he isn’t a quick-twitch small-space maven who can generate a ton of yards after the catch either.

Evans’ best routes are primarily deep developing, and allow his long strides to eat up huge chunks of yardage and force corners to defend larger swaths of space. Corners, posts, fades, digs and sails are his calling cards. He is great at slants and short yardage, goal line fades, but you don’t normally see him rip off a whip-return.

There Is Still Hope For Another Mike Evans 1,000-Yard Season

There is still plenty of time for Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield to re-establish the deep connection. It is more likely than not that if the offense keeps cooking with Mayfield registering one of the lowest average depth of targets in the NFL that defenses will eventually have to try and bring additional safety help into the box and open things up for Evans.

But until then, look for Mike Evans to continue to put up pedestrian yardage totals offset by elite red zone production – evidenced by his NFL-high five touchdowns this season.