Mike Evans made the hearts of Bucs fans everywhere sing this week. Asked about previous comments he had made about leaving the game soon, Evans clarified that soon is relative.

“It will be soon, even if it’s three-four more years I play,” Evans said. “I played 12, so… We’ll see, time will tell. I’m really trying to focus on this season and making the most out of it.”

Then when he was directly asked whether he planned on playing a 13th season in 2026, Evans allowed, “”Y’all are speaking it into existence I feel like, so we’ll see. We’ll get to it in a couple of months here.”

At 32 years old Evans showed just last week he has plenty of gas left in the tank with six catches and 132 yards. But if he is going to play next year, he is going to need a new contract.

Evans is a free agent next year, so he and the Bucs will need to work out a new deal. And the two sides will be in uncharted territory with him missing so much time this year due to separate hamstring and collarbone injuries robbing him of nine games this season.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Finding Mike Evans’ Value

That header is a bit of a misnomer. Given Mike Evans’ status as one of the all-time greats in Bucs’ lore – the first offensive player to make a case for etching his face on the Mt. Rushmore of Tampa Bay legends while making the Pro Football Hall of Fame, there is no monetary value that feels right next to his name. Add in Mike Evans the human, what he has done for the Tampa Bay community on both a large and small scale, and he embodies the moniker of ‘priceless.’

If Mastercard ever brought back a Bucs-centric version of their iconic commercials, he would undoubtedly be the pitchman.

But when it comes to contract negotiations, there has to be a monetary value the team and player agree on. That negotiation will be an interesting one. But I wanted to take a stab at what comps might guide assistant general manager Mike Greenberg as he works with Evans to keep him in town at least one more year.

Comp Criteria

I wanted to find receivers who met specific criteria that would align with where Mike Evans is in his career right now.

• Over 30
• Former first-round pick
• Significant receiving production over their careers
• Similar recent production

I found two such receivers that work well. Julio Jones in 2022 and DeAndre Hopkins in 2023. For these comparisons I have to project the rest of this season. As a rule, I extrapolate season-to-date averages over a full season. This hurt Evans to a degree due to his missed playing time this year. But with just three games left in the season it shouldn’t create a large enough difference to throw these projections off too much.

Here is how Evans stacks up against Jones and Hopkins over three different timelines.

*Age column denotes player age on September 1st of the year in which their contract was signed. For Evans that is September 1st, 2026.

Evans’ efficiency as measured by yards per route run shows well against the other two future Hall of Famers, as does his scoring production. His yardage totals are also in line over the two and three-year samples. In all the three receivers are close to each other in totality, making Jones and Hopkins strong comps for Evans.

In 2022 Jones signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Bucs coming off of two consecutive injury-plagued seasons. Hopkins signed a two-year, $26 million contract in 2023. The average of those two contract APY’s (average per year) as a % of the salary cap in the year they were signed comes to 4.33%. Applying that to a hypothetical $305 million salary cap in 2026 creates a $13.2 million APY.

DeAndre Hopkins Over Julio Jones Comp

I expect that $13.2 million APY to be a floor for any negotiations. When the Bucs signed Julio Jones, he had lost much of the juice that had once made him special. He was consistently injured, and those injuries had negatively affected his athleticism and productivity. DeAndre Hopkins was declining by 2023, but it was a more gradual decline than the steep drop off Jones had experienced. This explains the large gap in the two players’ contract values.

Mike Evans still possesses many of the traits that have made him special. His play in his first game back from a broken collarbone matched that of him pre-injury. Even approaching 33, Evans still has the sneaky speed and precise route-running that has enabled his prolific career. For these reasons I believe the Bucs and Evans’ representatives will agree that the Hopkins deal is the prevailing precedent to model a new contract after.

Hopkins’ APY was 5.78% of the 2023 salary cap. Pull that forward to a $305 million cap in 2026 presents a $17.63 million APY. Outside of quarterbacks, handing out multi-year deals to players over the age of 30, Greenberg has largely followed this rule. A case in point was Lavonte David, who has gone year-to-year for the past several seasons. Which brings us to…

Projection: One year, $17.5 million – $15 million guaranteed 

Potential Bonuses

With Mike Evans’ light production this year due to missed time, the Bucs have the ability to add in “not likely to be earned” bonuses. The benefit of these bonuses is that they will not count against the 2026 salary cap even if Evans earns them.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay could make another $5 million available to Evans through these bonuses. Something along the lines of:

• $1.25 million for 10 games played
• $1.25 million for 40 catches (assuming he doesn’t reach that mark this year)
• $1.25 million for 500 yards receiving (assuming he doesn’t reach that mark this year)
• $1.25 million for four touchdowns (assuming he doesn’t reach that mark this year)

These incentives would give Evans the opportunity to earn more cash – an extra $5 million – in 2026 than he will make this year, provided he can remain healthy and productive. It also gives the Bucs a solid break on his salary cap hit in 2026.