In an ongoing summer series, Pewter Report looks at and ranks each position group in the NFC South. So far we’ve chronicled and ranked the NFC South quarterbacks. Now it’s on to the division’s running backs.

Quarterbacks

With each team in the NFC South left with a quarterback that would not rank in the Top 10 in the NFL you can bet your bottom dollar that their will be a renewed interest in running the ball across the division. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has spoken at length about his team’s need to improve upon their 32nd ranked run game from 2022.

The Falcons, who ranked third in the NFL last year, doubled down on their running game by drafting potential generational talent Bijan Robinson eighth overall. The Panthers had one of the best running games in the NFL down the homestretch of last year despite trading away Christian McCaffery. Since then, they hired new head coach Frank Reich whose offenses ranked in the top third of the NFL in rushing in five of the six seasons between 2016 and 2021. The Saints have Alvin Kamara and added Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller this offseason.

For my analysis I am trying to look at play independent of offensive line and coaching and taking into account receiving abilities. In backing up my arguments I will look at traditional metrics like yards per carry, public grades from Pro Football Focus, along with more advanced statistics like missed tackles forced and yards after contact.

Atlanta Falcons

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

The Falcons are coming off of a year where they generated 2,718 yards rushing and ranked 4th in the NFL with a 4.9 yards per carry. And all they did in the offseason was add the best running back in the draft by a country mile.

Robinson is not only the best running back in this year’s draft, but he may also be the best since Saquon Barkley came out of Penn State in 2018. Robinson graded out second in college football in overall PFF grade (95.3) and rushing grade (96.1). He was fourth in the NCAA in yards after contact (1,071), tied for third in yards after contact per attempt, and led all college runners in missed tackles forced (104).

Robinson has very few holes in his game. He has great vision, instincts and decision-making ability. He pairs those skills with an angry running style and an explosive burst. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry en route to 1,575 rushing yards while catching 19 of 29 targets for 314 yards and averaging 16.5 yards per catch.

Behind Robinson is Tyler Allgeier, who finished fifth in the NFL in offensive rookie of the year voting. Allgeier led the Falcons in rushing attempts (210) and rushing yards (1,035) while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Allgeier, who was a fifth-round steal for the Falcons last year came on strong at the end of the season. Over the last four weeks of the year he carried the ball 79 times for 431 yards and two touchdowns.

He was used sparingly in the passing game receiving just 17 targets. However, he caught 16 of those targets, good for a 94% catch rate with 139 yards and a touchdown. Allgeier finished the season seventh among running backs with an 86.7 PFF grade and finished fifth in yards after contact per carry. His 51 missed tackles forced were tied for 10th in the league even though he was 19th in carries showing he created a lot of opportunities for himself.

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier – Photo by: USA Today

It doesn’t stop there for Atlanta. Their third string “running back” is do-it-all former first rounder Cordarelle Patterson. Patterson had stuck around the league for years primarily as a return man before experiencing a breakout season in his first year with the Falcons in 2021.

Since arriving in Atlanta in 2021, Patterson has 297 carries for 1,313 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 73 catches for 670 yards and another five scores and garnering PFF grades north of 80 in both seasons. Patterson is a jack-of-all trades, whom head coach Arthur Smith will use out of the backfield as well as lined up as a wide receiver. He isn’t a feature back anymore, but will be good for 30 snaps and 15 touches per game.

If that embarrassment of riches wasn’t enough, Caleb Huntley averaged 4.8 yards per carry while forcing 14 missed tackles and garnered an 86.9 PFF grade in 76 carries last year. The Falcons easily have the deepest, most talented running back room in the NFC South.

New Orleans Saints

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Saints RB Alvin Kamara – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints sport two of the more successful names in the NFC South in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. Kamara has been one of the more successful backs in the NFL since entering the league in 2017. Over his NFL career Kamara has logged almost 5,500 yards and 52 touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He has complimented those rushing stats with 463 catches for 4,027 yards and another 23 scores.

Kamara’s effectiveness has been waning recently though. His past two seasons have been some of his worst from both a grading and a yards per carry standpoint. Additionally, last year Kamara recorded his lowest missed tackles forced, missed tackles forced rate and yards after contact per carry since 2018.

Add in Kamara is facing a possible six-game suspension for charges he is facing from an incident in Las Vegas last year and all signs are pointing in the wrong direction for Kamara. However, two thirds of a season from a running back that is still good (if not his previous great) form still isn’t bad.

Knowing all of those things about Kamara, the Saints hedged their bets by signing Williams. The former Packer and Lion is coming off of the most statistically robust season of his career. He eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since entering the NFL and led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. Williams added 22 carries of 10 yards or more running in the productive Detroit offense.

However, his missed tackle forced rate was only 11.5%. And despite showing he could be a capable receiving option in years past, Williams was only targeted 16 times last year while recording his worse receiving grade (39.7).

Behind the veterans the Saints drafted TCU running back Kendre Miller in the third round. Miller averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in college and capped his career off at TCU with 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022. Miller forced 70 missed tackles, which accounted for over 31% of his carries while averaging over 3.6 yards after contact per carry.

The Saints’ running back room, like the Falcons’, has good depth. It doesn’t quite match Atlanta’s high-end potential or four-deep talent. But New Orleans is well-equipped to survive Kamara’s looming suspension while fielding one of the better pass-catching running back rooms in the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

Panthers RB Miles Sanders – Photo by: USA Today

The Panthers handed out a four-year, $25.4 million contract to Miles Sanders who is coming off of the best year of his career. In 2022 Sanders carried the ball 294 times for 1,419 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry while working behind arguably the best offensive line in football with the Eagles.

That offensive line could explain why Sanders’ PFF grade didn’t match his lofty counting stats production as he earned just a 71.1 grade from the site. Sanders isn’t great at generating extra yards after contact as his 52 missed tackles forced were eighth in the NFL while he was fifth in carries and his 2.91 yards after contact per carry was 19th in the league.

And despite a decent amount of opportunities in the passing game (28 targets) Sanders was a liability as a receiver averaging just 3.9 yards per catch and a 35.4 receiving grade. He has had more success in that area in the past, but it has never been a real strength of his.

Chuba Hubbard will work as Sanders’ primary backup. He had a solid sophomore year with 95 carries for 467 yards and a 4.9 yards per carry and a 76.6 PFF grade. He was a bit more successful than Sanders at generating forced missed tackles with an 18.9% rate. Hubbard himself did not have much of an impact in the receiving game with 14 catches on 16 targets for 171 yards and a 12.2 yards per reception.

Raheem Blackshear is currently penciled in as the No. 3 running back. The former undrafted free agent had very limited opportunities in his rookie season last year.

The Panthers have a solid one-two punch but a big question mark for them will be who handles third down duties for the team. That will be a key question that needs to be answered for the Panthers to move up from third in running back rooms in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are coming off of a season where their running game was historically bad. Only five teams since 2003 had fewer rushing yards per game than the 2022 Bucs. Many of those woes were related to poor execution by the offensive line and the considerable fall off in performance from former starter Leonard Fournette. But even rookie Rachaad White didn’t have the most spectacular season, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and forcing a missed tackle on just 11.8% of his carries.

His 2.98 yards after contact per carry ranks barely in the Top 30 of running backs last year. White’s receiving production was slightly better as he was heavily utilized in that area of the Bucs offense last year. Targeted 60 times, White caught 90% of those targets for 326 yards and a 6.0 yards per catch average.

Replacing Fournette as White’s running mate is Chase Edmonds. Edmonds has been a career change-of-pace back, never topping 125 carries in a season. He isn’t a big back capable of breaking many tackles (career 12.2% missed tackle forced rate), nor does he have explosive speed. Instead, Edmonds has been more of a solid runner who can get the yards that are blocked for him while being a solid, if unspectacular, receiving option.

Backing up those two is 2020 third-round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Vaughn had a modicum of success late in 2021 following injuries to Fournette and Ronald Jones II. I can’t help but think there may be untapped potential with Vaughn. He has 17 forced missed tackles over 70 carries in the past two years while averaging 3.59 yards after contact per carry.

He also has one carry of 10+ yards for every 10 carries over that time period. Where Vaughn has struggled in his young career has been with ball security, both in terms of fumbles as well as catching passes in the receiving game.

Despite that potential it is safe to say the Bucs depth is more hypothetical than realistic at this point, meaning they lack the high-end potential as well as the depth at running back to keep up with the rest of the NFC South.

Final Thoughts

I believe the NFC South will feature some of the better running games in the NFL in 2023. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Bucs will be one of them. Not that the team won’t have a much-improved ground game. With an improved scheme and an offensive line more tuned to running, not to mention the subtraction of Fournette I believe there will be a stark improvement from Tampa Bay’s offense.

And while I think Rachaad White is capable of being a more than serviceable lead back, I don’t think he has the high-end upside to match that of Kamara (in his prime) or Robinson. Nor do I think the Bucs boast equal depth to the majority of their NFC South competitors.