Table of Contents
About the Author: Joshua Queipo
Latest Bucs Headlines
In an ongoing summer series, Pewter Report looks at and ranks each position group in the NFC South. So far, we’ve chronicled and ranked the NFC South quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive lines and defensive lines. Now, it’s on to the NFC South’s linebackers.
For linebackers we will focus on off-ball linebackers.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints boast the second-best linebacker in the division. And given who the best is, there is no shame in that game. Davis has six straight seasons of Pro Football Focus grades north of 70.0, including a season above 90.0 and last season’s 82.7. Davis has also ascended as a coverage player, averaging over six passes defensed per year since arriving in New Orleans in 2018. Davis combines rare size and speed with an ability to drop into coverage, freeing up the rest of the defense to be utilized in unique ways. Traditionally Davis has been a solid tackler, although he struggled in 2023, missing 14.4% of his tackle attempts per PFF.
Bucs RB Rachaad White and Saints LB Pete Werner – Photo by: USA Today
Next to Davis is Pete Werner who has risen to a solid linebacker in his own right. The former second-round pick had an impressive rookie campaign in 2021, albeit in limited action. He followed that up with a solid sophomore campaign where he got off to a hot start but struggled down the stretch in part due to injury.
Werner is a good athlete who seems to have a knack for understanding his assignments, reading his keys and covering receivers who enter his zone in coverage without falling out of his area. If he can remain healthy, he could be the next in a long line of stellar NFC South linebackers.
The starting duo is a part of an overall underrated defense that may not get all of the credit it is due.
The Saints defense in the 2nd half of last season:
-2nd in DVOA
-1st in yds/play
-1st in opp passer rating
-4th in EPA/play pic.twitter.com/YPyYYADWOT— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) June 15, 2023
Behind those two, Zack Baun looks to be the primary backup. Baun has amassed 361 snaps, 58 tackles, four quarterback hits and two tackles for loss over the past three seasons. And with five pressures in 34 pass rush snaps he has shown an adeptness for getting after the passer. As a matter of fact, many think he may be better suited as a situational pass rusher than as an off-ball linebacker. Andrew Dowell projects as the No. 4 ILB for the Saints. Since entering the league in 2019 he has only played 22 snaps on defense (with all of them coming in the past two years with the Saints).
It is close for the top spot in the NFC South for linebackers, but the Saints pull out the No. 1 spot due to the consistency in pass coverage their starters provide over the No. 2 team.
Tampa Bay Bucs
Should we start with a potential future Hall of Famer or the most polarizing player in Tampa Bay currently? Let’s start with the legend. Lavonte David continues to rank as one of the best linebackers in football year-in and year-out. And while Tom Brady rightfully got all of the publicity in Tampa Bay about his fight with Father Time, David is sparring with the old man himself.
Despite being 32 last year, David posted the fourth best year of his career from a grading standpoint, while registering his second-best year in coverage. He may not put up the flashy box score stats like yesteryear, but make no mistake, David’s superior football IQ and knack for being in places well before he has any right to make him a top three linebacker in the NFL.
Bucs LB Devin White and Panthers QB Sam Darnold – Photo by: USA Today
One of the major beneficiaries of David’s stellar play is his running-mate Devin White. David’s ability to handle so much in coverage gives White ample opportunity to do what he does best: get after the quarterback. Over the past two seasons, no off-ball linebacker has as many pass rush opportunities as White (316). And White has rewarded head coach Todd Bowles’ aggressive use of him with 75 pressures, a 23.7% pressure rate and nine sacks over that time period.
Where White gets himself into trouble is in pass coverage. Over the past three years he has failed to earn a coverage grade higher than 50.0 while being targeted 240 times in coverage. Quarterbacks have been able to complete 82.5% of those passes for 1,788 yards and 10 touchdowns. White has allowed a yards per attempt of 7.45 and a passer rating north of 110 over that time period.
Still despite all of that, PFF had him ranked as one of the 32 best linebackers in the NFL just a few weeks ago. White has all of the physical gifts to be one of the greatest linebackers in NFL history. No other linebacker in the NFC South can match his ceiling. And there are glimpses of greatness with White. That combined with some budding research that linebacker play doesn’t peak until year 5-6 and there is an argument to be made that the best is yet to come for the former No. 5 overall pick.
The Bucs’ depth behind those two is extremely unproven. Backup KJ Britt looked exposed in his Week 18 performance against the Falcons last year. Britt is athletically capped and has not shown an ability to cover well. Behind him is the tantalizing, but unproven fifth-round rookie SirVocea Dennis. The Pittsburgh product is a good athlete with a similar skillset to White. But there should be tempered expectations. Dennis was a fifth-round pick for a reason, and he can still be susceptible to quarterback eye-movement. Proceed with caution.
The complimentary skillsets of David and White make for a talented duo that can play at as high of a level as any other pairing in the league, but the range of outcomes for White is so wide that the variance pulls this squad down to second in the NFC South.
Carolina Panthers
Placing third in the NFC South for linebacker groups is the Panthers. Shaq Thompson joins Davis and David as veteran players who can be counted on to provide steadying hands at the center of their respective teams’ defenses. While not quite at the overall level of the other two, Thompson is an accomplished run defender who can be a bit of a liability in coverage. The 2021 season was the only year in his career where he allowed a completion percentage of less than 70%.
Panthers LB Frankie Luvu and former Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today
Similarly, Frankie Luvu had a stellar season as a run defender in 2022, earning a 90.1 run defense grade while recording 63 defensive stops and 23 pressures as a rusher. These two may be the best run-defending pair in the division, but questions remain as to whether either one can play above average in pass defense. If not, they will invite opposing offenses to attack the middle of the field with a pass-first gameplan.
If either starter should have to miss time the depth is a bit thin for the Panthers. Kamu Grugier-Hill has seven years and over 2,000 snaps worth of experience. However, his play has declined each year since … 2017. Last year the Texans decided to release him mid-season. Carolina’s 2022 fourth-round pick, Brando Smith, is also in the building to provide depth. He played a handful of snaps last year on defense.
If Thompson’s play remains steady and Luvu ascends a bit, the Panthers could surprise with one of the better linebacker corps in the NFC South should either Davis or David’s play start to falter. However, for now third place feels like the right place to rank the Panthers for linebacker rooms in the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons linebacker room makes a case for one of the worst position groups in the NFC South. It’s not without some upside, but the current 50th percentile projections could be the Achilles heel that holds an otherwise fascinating defensive roster back.
Falcons LB Troy Andersen and Bucs PR Deven Thompkins – Photo by: USA Today
Atlanta’s 2022 second-round pick, Troy Andersen, is a physical specimen very much in the mold of Devin White. Looking at the two player’s combine numbers and they are eerily similar. They had identical 4.42 second 40-yard dashes. White out-leapt Andersen in the vertical jump 39.5 inches to 36 inches, but Andersen bested the Buccaneer in the broad jump 128 inches to 118 inches. As long as physical freaks exist at the linebacker position NFL teams will take chances on them.
Much like White, Andersen struggled mightily in coverage during his rookie year. He allowed 34 of 36 passes to be completed when he was targeted at an almost 10 yards per attempt clip. He also struggled in run defense. The one area Andersen was able to shine a bit in was as a pass rusher where he was able to create 10 pressures. But the Falcons rarely blitzed him as evidenced by his rather paltry 45 pass rush opportunities.
Kaden Elliss looks to play opposite Andersen. The former Saint logged a good amount of playing time last year due to the injuries suffered by Werner. And Elliss made the most of his opportunity, showing out as a run defender and pass rusher while holding his own in coverage. All-in-all he posted a PFF grade of 81.5 while creating 20 pressures and seven sacks in just 103 pass rush opportunities. Elliss’ 12.0 pass rush productivity rating was 11th among his position group in 2022.
Mykal Walker provides a veteran presence behind the projected starters while Nate Landman has barely seen the field thus far in his short career. Walker is a decent backup who provides better depth than a couple of the other teams in the NFC South division. But between Andersen’s struggles in his rookie year and the lack of sustained success for Elliss (less than 1,000 career snaps) the Falcons project to have the worst linebacking corps in the NFC South.
