It’s time for that fun, but ultimately futile, yearly exercise that some love, while others loathe. With the advent of the 2023 NFL season upon us, I thought I would yet again share my NFL predictions for how the season might shape up in terms of wins and losses for each of the 32 franchises. Last year was my first public foray into the predictions arena and I had a mixed bag of results.

In the AFC, I missed on the Jags’ and the Dolphins’ ascensions (although I had Miami with a winning record, I didn’t think Mike McDaniels would get that much out of that offense), while I was too high on the Browns, Colts and Patriots. And while I correctly predicted Denver and Las Vegas would finish fourth and third in their division, respectively, I was still too bullish on their win totals.

Meanwhile in the NFC I thought the NFC East would take a step forward, but I misjudged the step (more like a leap!). In the NFC West I was vindicated in thinking the Cardinals were not very good, but I looked like a bonehead in my outlook on Los Angeles and Seattle. I missed on Minnesota’s miraculous one-score record but had Chicago and Detroit’s win totals pegged to a “T.” And I , like so many others, completely over-estimated the Bucs potential to drop-off in the South.

Looking at it from a more macro point of view in terms of wins by division, I was too bullish on the AFC West and East, while I was too bearish on the NFC East.

I now endeavor to improve upon that vast and incredibly accurate track record with my 2023 NFL standings predictions.

2023 NFL Standings

AFC East

Jets QB Aaron Rodgers – Photo by: USA Today

New York (12-5)

Buffalo (12-5)

New England (10-7)

Miami (9-8)

I’m in on the Jets. The roster general manager Joe Douglas has amassed and the defense that head coach Robert Saleh has developed doesn’t need Aaron Rodgers to be an MVP to make a deep playoff run. They just need him to be competent.

And while Rodgers probably isn’t at the MVP-level of play he was at in 2020-2021, he is still a more than competent quarterback. I envision the Bills matching the Jets record but losing the division due to the fourth tiebreaker (conference record) where the two have the same number of wins (10), but Buffalo has an extra loss due to an extra conference game.

The division is extremely competitive and strong throughout with all four teams finishing with a winning record, but only two teams making the playoffs. More on that later.

AFC North

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett and Bucs DT Logan Hall – Photo by: USA Today

Pittsburgh (13-4)

Cincinnati (12-5)

Baltimore (11-6)

Cleveland (8-9)

This is probably the smallest limb that I am way out on, picking the team with arguably the worst quarterback in the division to finish at the top. But hear me out. Pittsburgh’s offense will most likely be good this year. The Steelers have amassed an enviable cupboard of talent where they are six-to-seven players deep at the playmaker positions.

George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin is a good receiver room. Pat Frieremuth is a great complement at tight end. And the combination of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren at running back gives them a balanced way of attacking.

Now you add defense with possibly the deepest front-seven in football and a head coach who can take a marginal roster to a winning season, and you have the recipe for something special. The biggest question marks here are cornerback (a notoriously volatile position anyways), quarterback (I believe in Kenny Pickett and had him as QB1 on my draft board last year) and offensive coordinator (I have no defense here).

Cincinnati makes the playoffs as the No. 5 seed with the fighting Burrows finishing the season on a six-game win streak, making the division a very tight race. Baltimore has a solid season … BUT MISSES THE PLAYOFFS at 11 wins due to losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to a team in the next division. Cleveland has to finish their season with back-to-back games against the Jets and the Bengals. I project them to lose both, sinking to just under .500 on the season, similarly to the 2019 Bucs.

AFC West

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Kansas City (12-5)

Los Angeles (11-6)

Denver (5-12)

Las Vegas (2-15)

Just one year ago, this division was touted as one of the toughest in football. That was before the Russell Wilson cratering cemented itself as a trend rather than a blip and the Raiders … well … Raidered. Now the division is bifurcated into two clear tiers: the “elite quarterback” tier and the “not” tier.

Kansas City wins the division for *checks notes* the eleventy billionth time in the row, while the Chargers slide in just a game behind. I do see Kansas City stumbling into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak (at home against Cincinnati and then on the road against the Chargers), which causes them to slip to the #3 seed in the AFC for playoff seeding.

Speaking of playoff seeding, I have the Chargers beating the Ravens during their Week 12 matchup. By virtue of that head-to-head win, they also eventually prevent the Ravens from making the playoffs as the Chargers take the No. 7 seed.

I have serious doubts that Sean Payton can revive the Broncos. It wouldn’t shock me if he did because he is a superb coach, but I think the warts are too glaring to cover up on that team. And finally, the Josh McDaniels experiment 2.0 blows up worse than the first.

AFC South

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield, Jr. and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor – Photo by: USA Today

Jacksonville (12-5)

Houston (6-11)

Indianapolis (6-11)

Tennessee (5-12)

The Jaguars are a good, ascending team that gets to take advantage of a bad division that won’t be ready to hang with the “big boys” for at least another year or two. With two rookie quarterbacks starting from the jump and a 35-year-old and now injury-prone Ryan Tannehill as his division counterparts, Trevor Lawrence may have the largest divisional lead in terms of quarterback play in the NFL.

Nevertheless, I expect both Colts and Texans fans to leave the NFL season feeling good about the trajectories of their clubs. Both fan bases will see their young quarterbacks take steps forward that will give hope that they are the foundational pieces they were drafted to be.

Tennessee finally faces reality and blows it all up next year after a disappointing, albeit foreseeable, season where their shallow roster is exposed despite their extremely talented head coach.

NFC East

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts – Photo by: USA Today

Philadelphia (14-3)

Dallas (13-4)

New York (10-7)

Washington (5-12)

Despite the best record in the NFL, I don’t have the Eagles running away with their division. Dallas took a good quarterback, offensive line and pass rush and supplemented them with smart moves in the offseason like shoring up their run defense with Mazi Smith and complementing their receiver room with Brandin Cooks.

These were savvy moves that help them win better at the margins. The result is a highly competitive bout between the two teams for divisional supremacy. But ultimately Philly wins out.

The Giants secure a playoff spot themselves with a 10-7 record. The offense is still challenged by a limited quarterback and one of the worst receiver rooms in the NFL, but the team overall is buoyed by a very good defense and amazing leadership/coaching from Brian Daboll.

Washington ends the season with a disappointing record and the team most likely moves on from head coach Ron Rivera. The new head coach inherits a sneaky-good roster in need of a good quarterback with the 2024 NFL Draft shaping up to be an embarrassment of riches at the position.

NFC North

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield, Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Detroit (12-5)

Green Bay (9-8)

Minnesota (5-12)

Chicago (4-13)

I was high on the Lions last year with my NFL standings predictions. I had them finishing 8-9 and second in the NFC North division. They did end up second in the division with one more win than my prediction. They have bolstered their roster this year (albeit with some questionable moves from a value standpoint), and I see them taking another step forward in a division with no clear-cut dominant team for them to topple.

Green Bay closes out the season on a four-game win streak and still loses the division to the Lions by three games.

Chicago made some good moves in the offseason to start to put a team around quarterback Justin Fields to find out if he is “the guy.” Those moves net them a couple of extra wins in 2023 over 2022, but a lack of consistent pass rush and a still streaky offensive line still doom their hopes of competing this year.

Meanwhile, the Vikings prove that last year they were a .500 true-talent team masquerading as a top-tier squad who then had a net loss of talent rather than a net-gain.

NFC West

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

San Francisco (13-4)

Seattle (11-6)

Los Angeles (3-14)

Arizona (0-17)

Here we have another division that was once considered strong from top to bottom that can now easily be sectioned into a “contenders,” and a “rebuilding” group. The 49ers take the division with a strong starting roster on both sides of the ball and one of the best offensive minds of a generation.

Seattle makes the playoffs as Geno Smith proves last year was not a mirage and the talent on the team improves overall from 2022. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, both the Cardinals and Rams put themselves in position to make difficult decisions about veteran quarterbacks currently on their roster while considering the plethora of talent at the position that could be available in the 2024 NFL Draft.

NFC South

Saints DE Cameron Jordan and ex-Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today

New Orleans (9-8)

Atlanta (9-8)

Tampa Bay (7-10)

Carolina (4-13)

Now we get to the division I purposefully put last and the one that most readers scrolled immediately to. Earlier this summer, I previewed the NFC South position group by position group. My final analysis had the Saints with the best team in the division.

My thoughts on this haven’t changed and I have them winning the division. They have the best overall roster with the best quarterback in the division. That typically leads to winning in the NFL.

I see Atlanta finishing with a winning record, but missing the playoffs, based off the force-multiplier effect of how they have built their offense. Take a fantastic offensive mind, give him a strong run-blocking unit. Then put a room of running backs behind them that is legitimately three-deep (Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarelle Patterson) and includes two players who can win from multiple positions.

Add to that two players that have shown can be the engine for a passing game (Kyle Pitts, Drake London) and you have a unit that can be the most special in the entire division. I still have questions about their pass rush and there will be a few games throughout the season where the Falcons get down early and they will have trouble staying competitive due to how they have built their offense. But this is definitely a team that has taken a step forward.

I have the Bucs opening and closing the season on two-game win streaks. With just seven wins overall, the middle of the season is likely to be frustrating for fans, to say the least. The starting pieces for most of the roster is a good group. But when you are emulating the 2023 Rams in terms of what percentage of your roster is made up of rookies (especially undrafted free agent rookies), you most likely lose the war of attrition most NFL teams compete in each year.

You can reach each of the Pewter Reporters’ Bucs predictions in our most recent PR Roundtable.

Carolina has a good new coach in Frank Reich, but also a rookie quarterback and not too many dynamics around him. The Panthers defense can be good, but not great. New system, new faces – it will take some time in Carolina.

Playoff Seeding

AFC

1. Pittsburgh
2. Jacksonville
3. Kansas City
4. New York
5. Buffalo
6. Cincinatti
7. Los Angeles

NFC

1. Philadelphia
2. San Francisco
3. Detroit
4. New Orleans
5. Dallas
6. Seattle
7. New York

Wild Card Week

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – Photo by: USA Today

There isn’t anything better than the NFL playoffs in my opinion and this projection has some great matchups. Seattle traveling to Detroit, where the No. 6 seed Seahawks upset the Lions in the first playoff game in Detroit in this millennium. Dallas also technically wins in an “upset” over New Orleans, although I am sure they would actually be road favorites by handicappers.

The lone NFC home team to win their playoff matchup? The 49ers, who take down visiting Giants. This shows that the NFC has some very weak divisions and power is concentrated with just a few premier teams.

In the AFC, the story is a bit different and home-field advantage plays out a bit more. I have both Kansas City and the Jets winning at home against extremely talented teams in the form of Cincinnati and Buffalo, respectively. The lone visitor I have winning is the Chargers toppling the Jaguars in a rematch of last year’s instant classic playoff game.

Divisional Round

Here is where some will call me crazy. With a narrative of “choking” surrounding the team, most will call me crazy to think Dallas could go into San Francisco and win. But that’s what I see happening. I also have Philadelphia coming off the bye week and beating Seattle at home to set up an all-NFC East championship game.

In the AFC, I have the Steelers losing to the No. 7 seed Chargers at home with extra rest. Crazy, I know. I also have the Jets beating the Kansas City to end Patrick Mahomes’ consecutive championship game appearance streak at five.

Championship Round

The Eagles are quite possibly the deepest roster in football. Certainly, they are at most of the critical positions. This strength of depth and few glaring weaknesses helps them take down divisional foe Dallas to return to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season. And the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets defeat the Chargers to head to Las Vegas as the AFC representative in the big game. This gives NFL fans an Eagles-Jets Super Bowl matchup that should be fun.

Super Bowl

After losing in gut-wrenching fashion last year, I predict the Eagles will beat the Jets, 26-20, once again preventing Rodgers from getting that elusive second ring he has been seeking for over a decade now.