After suffering their first loss of the season — a 25-11 defeat against the Eagles — on Monday night, the Bucs have to quickly move on and turn their focus toward Week 4. On a shorter week, 2-1 Tampa Bay will be on the road to face the 2-1 New Orleans Saints as the two sides renew what has often been a heated NFC South rivalry.

Heading into Week 4, the Bucs (2-1), Saints (2-1) and Falcons (2-1) all share first place in the division. And while there will be a long way to go after this Sunday, a win over New Orleans could be big for Todd Bowles’ team as it looks to three-peat as NFC South champions.

At the very least, it would get Bowles and the Bucs to their early bye week with a promising 3-1 record.

The Last Time…

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs and Saints last met in Week 13 of the 2022 season, with Tampa Bay beating New Orleans 17-16 on Monday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium. The victory finished off the Bucs’ first season sweep of the Saints since 2007, and it came in dramatic fashion.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense were stifled for most of the night. New Orleans held a 16-3 lead late into the fourth quarter, but a 1-yard touchdown pass from Brady to Cade Otton with three minutes left gave the Bucs some life. Then, after the defense forced a quick three-and-out, the offense got the ball back with 2:29 to go and Brady led an 11-play, 63-yard drive that was capped off by a 6-yard touchdown pass to Rachaad White with three seconds left. Ryan Succop’s PAT then gave the Bucs a 17-16 victory.

How The Bucs And Saints Are Trending

These two teams have had similar seasons up to this point. Tampa Bay opened the season with wins over Minnesota and Chicago — two bad teams — before losing to Philadelphia in Week 3 to come back down to reality a little bit. Meanwhile, New Orleans beat Tennessee and Carolina (teams with a combined 1-5 record) before blowing a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead and losing, 18-17, to the Packers in Week 3.

The Bucs came into the season with little buzz after Tom Brady’s retirement and some major roster turnover that has led them to relying on a lot of youth and possessing little depth in 2023. Despite losing some defensive pieces up front, the Saints became a popular pick to win the NFC South. They added former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr via trade, plus they already boasted a solid defense.

Neither team has been overly impressive so far this season, but they’re both 2-1. The Bucs are 19th in points per game through three weeks (19.3), while the Saints (17.7) are 25th. These two teams have taken on the identities of their defensive-minded head coaches, as they’re winning with defense so far in 2023.

New Orleans is 6th in scoring defense (16.7 PPG), while Tampa Bay is 11th (19.7 PPG). The Saints are 8th against the pass (188.3 yards per game) and 10th against the run (99.7 yards per game). On the other side, the Bucs are 24th against the pass (256 YPG) and 12th against the run (103 YPG).

This is a pretty even matchup by the looks of it, with the Saints currently three-point home favorites (per mybookie.ag), with the over/under set at 41 points.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Saints Matchup?

Saints QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In two career games against the Bucs, Derek Carr has completed 67.4% of his passes for 797 yards and six touchdowns to one interception. However, the veteran quarterback sprained his AC joint in Week 3 and looks unlikely to play against Tampa Bay on Sunday. He said Wednesday that if he can physically play, he’ll play without worry of making the injury any worse or re-injuring it. That would then beg the question of just how effective he can be given that the shoulder injury will have only happened seven days prior.

If Carr can’t go, that leaves Jameis Winston — the No. 1 overall pick by the Bucs in 2015 — as the starter on Sunday against his old team. Whether Todd Bowles’ defense can force him into mistakes the way it did in Week 2 last year would be a major decider in this game. If Winston plays a clean game and connects with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas with ease against a banged-up Bucs secondary, it’ll be difficult for Tampa Bay to win. But if he’s pressured and starts throwing interceptions or fumbling, it’ll be just as difficult for New Orleans to win.

A plus-five turnover margin was a major reason for the Bucs’ 2-0 start. They were the only team in the league that hadn’t turned the ball over heading into Monday’s game against the Eagles, but they then saw Baker Mayfield throw an interception and Rachaad White fumble in the loss. Still, Tampa Bay also forced two turnovers to keep its margin at plus-five.

Bucs QB Tom Brady, Bucs WR Mike Evans and Saints CB Marshon Lattimore – Photo by: USA Today

It might go without saying because turnovers are always a big decider, but the turnover battle has been key in this Bucs-Saints rivalry as of late. During its seven-game losing streak in the rivalry from 2018-2021, Tampa Bay averaged 2.3 turnovers per game to New Orleans’ 0.7. But in their season sweep last year, the Bucs won the turnover battle 5-3.

Penalties will also be a major factor in this game. There’s no love lost at all between these two teams, particularly where Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore are concerned. The more disciplined team is going to have a better shot at coming out of Week 4 with a lead in the division.

Outside of turnovers and penalties — which are always going to decide games — the run game will be a big factor. Tampa Bay was gashed by Philadelphia to the tune of 201 rushing yards on Monday night, and the Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension this week. That’ll be a big boost, as Jamaal Williams is on injured reserve and rookie Kendre Miller had to lead the way last week. On the flip side, New Orleans stops the run pretty well (not as well as Philly, to be fair) and Rachaad White will be looking for a bounce-back game after a bad Week 3.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Seeing how the Buccaneer offense bounces back is bound to be interesting this week. Baker Mayfield wasn’t great against the Eagles, but he was hardly the root of the team’s problems. If he can return to his turnover-free ways from Weeks 1 and 2 while being a little sharper and finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin more regularly, he’ll give the Bucs a shot. And as mentioned above, a rebound game from Rachaad White would go a long way in helping Tampa Bay control the game and keep the offense multidimensional.

Defensively for the Bucs, this one is gonna be all about the secondary. Having Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean so banged up this early in the season is not ideal in the slightest, and neither guy appears to be on track for this game. That’ll leave Zyon McCollum, Dee Delaney, Christian Izien and potentially some new signee(s) to look for ways to intercept Jameis Winston (or Derek Carr?). Big games from Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal would massively help.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Saints RB Alvin Kamara – Photo by: USA Today

The return of Alvin Kamara will be a welcome sight for the Saints, especially with his return coming in this specific game. Kamara hasn’t quite been the same guy in recent years, but he always seems to find the end zone against Tampa Bay. In 11 games against the Bucs, he has 11 total touchdowns. He’s only averaging 44.5 rushing yards per game against them, but he has a 45.8 receiving yards average to go with that.

There was a time when Cameron Jordan feasted against Tampa Bay left tackle Donovan Smith. But Smith is now in Kansas City, and Tristan Wirfs is now on the left side. Wirfs has fared well against Jordan in his career, but the veteran pass rusher still has the ability to make an impact play. He has a half-sack so far this year, with Carl Granderson being the bigger threat in totaling 2.5 sacks through three games.

Bucs at Saints Game Information

When: Sunday, Oct. 1
Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Chris Myers (Play by Play), Robert Smith (Analyst), Jen Hale (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)