It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs came through in a must-win game, beating the Falcons, 29-25, in Atlanta to improve to 6-7 and reclaim the NFC South lead by virtue of a tiebreaker. Running back Rachaad White and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. were the stars for Tampa Bay as the Bucs avoided getting swept by the 6-7 Falcons.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Rachaad White To The Rescue For The Bucs

Sometimes when I write my SR’s Fab 5 columns I get the timing right and they can be a quite predictive in nature. Such was the case with Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 about running back Rachaad White, whom I felt was going to have a big day on Sunday in Atlanta as he’s really come on down the stretch.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

White was held in check as a runner by Atlanta’s defense back in Week 7, rushing for just 34 yards on 13 carries. But that was the first game where White really exploded as a receiver, catching six passes for 65 yards in Tampa Bay’s 16-13 loss.

Entering Sunday’s rematch against a Falcons team that was without its starting defensive tackles Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata, White and an ever-improving Bucs offensive line seemed poise for another great day on the ground. Tampa Bay ran for 125 yards at Indianapolis three weeks ago with White rushing for 100 yards for the first time this season. In last week’s win against Carolina, White ran for 84 yards and the Bucs had a season-high 128 rushing yards.

On a day when the Bucs’ aerial game failed to take off in Atlanta and Mike Evans looked mortal for the first time all season with one catch for eight yards, Rachaad White came to the rescue. He ran for 102 yards and averaged 4.1 yards per carry in addition to catching two passes for 33 yards, including a 31-yard touchdown on a screen. Tampa Bay ran for a season-high 148 yards, out-rushing the Falcons, who were held to 96 yards on the ground, by 52 yards.

White’s 135-yard performance was a career high, and the third straight game in which he’s had 100 yards of total offense. In Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 I likened White’s ability to hurt defenses on the ground or through the air to New Orleans’ Pro Bowler Alvin Kamara.

In fact, White currently ranks third in the league in total yards from scrimmage this season.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – 1,461

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne – 1,189
Bucs RB Rachaad White – 1,164
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – 1,110
Bengals RB Joe Mixon – 1,095

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

White also is tied for second with Buffalo’s James Cook, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Los Angeles Rams’ Kyren Williams with six games with at least 100 yards of offense this season. Only McCaffrey (nine) has more.

Perhaps more importantly, White has six total touchdowns (four rushing, two receiving) in the Bucs’ last six games. Tampa Bay is 3-3 in those games.

White has 745 yards rushing and needs just 255 yards to be the first 1,000-yard rusher in Tampa Bay since Doug Martin did it in 2015. He needs to average just 63.8 yards per game over the final month to achieve that feat.

With the improved play of the offensive line, and the hesitancy that he ran with earlier this season now gone, the more assertive, hard-charging White should be able to be the Bucs’ next 1,000-yard rusher.

STATEMENT 2. Todd Bowles’ Bucs (Finally) Have Some (Temporary) Momentum

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles really needed Sunday’s 29-25, come-from-behind win. In what was possibly looking like a repeat of Tampa Bay’s 39-37 loss at Houston in a game that saw each team score a go-ahead touchdown in the final moments, the Bucs prevailed in this one.

Of course the Falcons also Falconed on Sunday, choking at the end like they have in so many games over the past decade. Don’t lose sight of the fact that normally reliable Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo missed two field goals, and those six points were ultimately the difference in the game.

So facing a must-win situation on Sunday in Atlanta, Bowles and the Bucs did just that and will live to fight another day. Bowles’ hot seat cools off a bit now that Tampa Bay has regained the temporary lead in the division – albeit by a tiebreaker. But there are still four games left and every team but Carolina still has a chance to win the NFC South.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

On Sunday, Tampa Bay needed to do something it hadn’t done since the first two games of the 2023 season – win back-to-back games to get some much-needed momentum heading to Green Bay this week against a Packers team that has won 16 straight games at home in December under head coach Matt LaFleur.

It’s pointless to look further than that right now. If the Bucs lose on Sunday they fall two games below .500 again with just three games remaining and any momentum from the team’s two-game winning streak goes poof!

Yet if Tampa Bay can win at Green Bay it’s back to .500 for the Bucs, and a real chance for a winning record in the regular season. Then suddenly a third-straight NFC South title seems attainable.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. How Did The Bucs’ Ground Game Get Going In The Fourth Quarter?

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales should changes his name to Dave Cajones after what he pulled off in the fourth quarter of Tampa Bay’s 29-25 win at Atlanta.

After 22 rushing attempts in the first three quarters netted just 74 yards (3.3 avg.), Canales stuck with the ground game in the fourth quarter – and it paid off.

The Bucs ran the ball 12 times for 71 yards (5.9 avg.) in the fourth quarter with Rachaad White picking up 39 yards on 10 carries, including a critical fourth-and-1 on Tampa Bay’s final touchdown drive. Backup Chase Edmonds also contributed with 22 yards rushing on two carries in the fourth quarter.

Canales had seen the Bucs have success pulling left tackle Tristan Wirfs to the right as a lead blocker through the hole in the first half. In the fourth quarter he decided to do the same with right tackle Luke Goedeke and use him even more as a puller.

The played called TOW (Tackle on Will) called for Goedeke to pull from right to left and into the B gap to knock out the weakside linebacker behind left guard Aaron Stinnie, who was sensational at the point of attack in the fourth quarter.

Canales ran TOW twice in the fourth quarter to pick up 20 yards – 15 on a carry from Edmonds and five on a carry from White.

Goedeke also pulled to the right and had a great perimeter block on a seven-yard run by Edmonds near the start of the fourth quarter.

Canales also called GOW (Guard on Will), in which right guard Cody Mauch pulled from right to left – along with backside tight end Cade Otton – into the weakside B gap to follow Stinnie’s lead. White gained six yards on that run.

Stinnie was the unsung hero in the fourth quarter for the Bucs. Out of Tampa Bay’s 71 yards on the ground in that quarter, the Bucs ran the ball to the left side behind Stinnie for 38 of those yards – including White’s 2-yard gain on fourth-and-1 late in the game.

QUESTION 2. What Do We Make Of Baker Mayfield’s Day In Atlanta?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Baker Mayfield shook off one of his worst games of the year in Atlanta to make two of his best throws of the season at the end. Before the Bucs’ game-winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter, Mayfield had completed 12-of-27 passes (44.4%) for 101 yards.

But when the Bucs needed Mayfield the most he delivered, connecting with wide receiver Chris Godwin on a 32-yard catch-and-run on third-and-10 on a beautifully-thrown touch pass down to the Atlanta 15. Two plays later, Mayfield used great touch again on an 11-yard touchdown pass to tight end Cade Otton to put the Bucs in front by four points.

Perhaps the best thing Mayfield did was avoid turnovers. He steered clear of Falcons safety Jessie Bates III, who has five interceptions this season, even if that led to fewer opportunities for Mike Evans as a result. Atlanta rolled Bates over to Evans’ side of the field quite frequently for double coverage.

Mayfield finished the day completing less than half of his pass attempts (14-of-29) for a meager 144 yards with two touchdowns, in addition to a rushing score. Tampa Bay gained only 290 yards in Atlanta and converted just 6-of-16 third downs (37.5%).

Yet Mayfield and the Bucs offense scored 27 of the team’s 29 points and did what they needed to do to win the game – when they needed to do it. Mayfield showed mettle and moxie, and against a sub-par Falcons team that was missing its two starting defensive tackles and a starting cornerback that was enough on Sunday.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. KJ Britt Continues To Start At Mike LB

Bucs ILB K.J. Britt and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Devin White has played some pretty bad football this for the Bucs this year, and is ailing with a foot injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. We’ll see if he’s on the mend this week, but Todd Bowles shouldn’t rush him back into the starting lineup anytime soon.

K.J. Britt replaced White on Sunday in Atlanta and had a career-high eight tackles and a pass breakup. Britt earned a 79.5 overall grade from Pro Football Focus on Sunday, and was the Bucs’ highest-graded defender.

This comes on the heels after J.J. Russell was stellar with seven tackles, a sack and four pressures playing middle linebacker in an emergency against Carolina. In back-to-back games, Britt and Russell have played better than White has in any game over the last two months. I predict the Bucs stick with Britt at Mike linebacker this week at Green Bay.

By the way, the reason why Britt got the start over SirVocea Dennis in Atlanta was because Dennis is more familiar with the Mo linebacker (weakside) role where Lavonte David plays, than at Mike. Britt has practiced behind White over the last three years at Mike linebacker, so the coaches felt more comfortable with Britt starting alongside David versus the Falcons.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs’ NFC South Lead Will Be Short-Lived

Enjoy this NFC South lead while you can, Pewter People. Tampa Bay travels up to Green Bay next week to face the 6-6 Packers, who are red hot at home in December. Meanwhile, the 6-7 Falcons travel to Carolina to play the 1-12 Panthers. New Orleans, which is also 6-7, hosts the 4-8 New York Giants.

By the end of next week the Bucs could very well be 6-8 while the Falcons and Saints could be back vying for the lead in the NFC South at 7-7. That’s how I see it right now.