It is officially game week, and we have come to the close of this summer series ranking the NFC South. We have covered each position group.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Offensive Tackles

Offensive Guards

Centers

Defensive Tackles

Edge

Linebackers

Cornerbacks

Nickelbacks

Safeties

And the coaching staffs…

Coaches

But with each facet of the game bearing different weights, plus different strengths of schedule can alter final records more than you might think at first blush. To finish up this two-month long analysis I’ll list my predictions from worst to first in terms of records along with a list of the team’s strengths within the division and some final thoughts on the team.

NFC South Final Record Predictions

4. Carolina Panthers (4-13)

Strengths: Running Back (2nd), Offensive Guard (2nd), Inside Linebacker (2nd)

The Panthers are in full rebuild mode and this year’s number one priority is finding out if their investment in quarterback Bryce Young can be salvaged. And while they were a dumpster fire last year the team has made extraordinary efforts to give Young a supporting cast that will allow them to truly evaluate what he can do.

Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

That does not mean they are an above average roster, or even an above average offense for that matter. But the Panthers have gotten better at running back, tight end, guard and receiver. And new head coach Dave Canales will bring an improved offensive scheme implemented.

What will be interesting is whether he can leverage a solid interior offensive line to get better results in the run game than he had in Tampa Bay. Given the decline of the Saints roster overall and their suspect offensive line I would not be surprised one bit if their offense was not dead last in the NFC South.

One interesting note when assessing the Panthers roster is where their strengths lie. Guard is a position that is showing increased importance across the NFL, but overall running back, guard and off-ball linebacker are three of the least prioritized positions in the league. But if the Panthers can double their win total from 2023 and have a true sense of the direction of their offense – with or without Bryce Young – it should be considered a successful season for them.

3. New Orleans Saints (4-13)

Strengths: Nickel Cornerback (2nd), Cornerback (2nd), Inside Linebacker (1st), Edge (1st), Center (2nd), Tight End (2nd), Wide Receiver (2nd)

Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints continue their slow descent into the doldrums of the NFC South basement. Their tackle situation, and offensive line overall, is a mess. And while the team does have some strengths relative to the rest of the division, it does not mean those areas are necessarily good. 

Edge is the perfect example. I can kind of see what the team is starting to do from a team-building standpoint…I think. They have one of the better secondaries in the NFL and they continue to use assets to bolster it. Will it work? It is a notoriously fickle facet of the game. I suppose if you have enough high-end assets there you can presume a relatively high floor.

The defensive coaching should keep the Saints competitive, but their offensive ceiling is low in an offensive league. They are tied to aging, declining players and they lacked the foresight to try and flip those players for assets to rebuild with. The future looks bleak for New Orleans and I have them finally bottoming out as one of the worst teams in the NFL and a Top 5 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

2. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

Strengths: Quarterback (1st), Running Back (1st), Tight End (1st), Offensive Tackle (1st), Offensive Guard (1st), Center (1st), Interior Defensive Line (2nd), Cornerback (1st), Safety (2nd), Special Teams (2nd), Coaching (2nd)

The Falcons had a solid roster last year with two glaring holes. They attempted to fix both with aging players coming off major injuries. Kirk Cousins provides the Falcons with a legitimate quarterback. And while I do not want to descend into the madness of quarterback rankings and trying to place Cousins as either Top 10 or Top 12 or Top 15, the safer and more consensus-building way of describing his impact is by saying he is a massive upgrade over last year’s starter Desmond Ridder.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris – Photo by: USA Today

As for their pass rush, the Falcons were solid in the middle last year with David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett. But on the edge, they were one of the worst teams in the NFL at getting pressure. Atlanta traded for Matthew Judon, who was one of the most productive pass rushers in the league in 2022 but missed most of last year due to injury. Judon is not a long-term solution, but he definitely improves their outside pass rush in 2023.

The key for Atlanta is not necessarily being good in certain areas, but better than last year. And they have undoubtedly improved in those two key areas without getting considerably worse in any other facet of their roster. The offensive floor of the team with an experienced quarterback who has been historically good, a Top 10 offensive line, and a talented trio of playmakers in wide receiver Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts.

On defense, Atlanta has a limited ceiling, but with Raheem Morris at the helm and a good secondary they also have a high floor. Add to that a third-place finish schedule and you have the makings for a several game jump in record and a possible postseason berth.

1. Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7)

Strengths: Quarterback (2nd), Wide Receiver (2nd), Offensive Tackle (1st), Interior Defensive Line (1st), Nickel Cornerback (1st), Safety (1st), Coaching (1st)

I have the Bucs taking a small step forward with their second consecutive one game improvement in record in 2024.The Bucs rank first or second within the NFC South in four of the five most valuable positions in the NFL (QB, WR, OT, IDL). That is a really smart way to build a roster. Factor in the best coaching staff in the division to amplify the roster and you come up with a team capable of winning the division for the fourth straight year.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

To be clear, I have the Falcons as the best overall roster in the division, but when I worked through the schedule matrix, I have the Bucs ending with the same record and winning tiebreakers. The offense should be able to build on last year’s progress to be middle of the pack or better and the defense is usually a quality unit in the aggregate with potential for upside.

The interior offensive line and edge rushers are the most critical positions to focus on. if both pleasantly surprise this record prediction could prove to be conservative. And if both struggle the opposite will be true.

The NFC South is still looked down upon by the NFL at large, but three of the four teams in the division have taken positive steps forward with a clearly defined plan for the near-to-mid-term. But there is still a clear tiering for the 2024 NFL season.