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With the preseason now in the rearview mirror, and cutdown day looming we are now about to land the plane that is the summer series “Ranking the NFC South”. We have ranked every position group and in case you missed them here they are.
Now, before I unveil the official full team rankings next week here is the last piece of the pie. Assembling a great roster is important to fielding a good team. But it is not the only important factor. Coaching is also important. There are countless examples of good rosters underachieving (the Eagles, twice) and not so great rosters that all of a sudden became good (Lions last year). A good coaching staff can transform a roster and get the best out of every player.
The NFC South is undergoing quite a bit of change among their coaching ranks. The Panthers and the Falcons have new head coaches, and every team has a new offensive coordinator as the entire division is embracing a traditional Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay offensive system. I’ll be looking at the overall record of the head coaches, the quality of their offensive and defensive schemes, the tenures of the offensive play-callers, and historical performance of the special teams coordinators.
NFC South Coaching Staffs
1. Tampa Bay Bucs
Head Coach – Todd Bowles
Offensive Coordinator – Liam Coen
Defensive Coordinator – Co-Coordinators – Run Game, Kacy Rodgers – Pass Game, Larry Foote
Special Teams Coordinator – Thomas McGaughey
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
This is a huge jump from my rankings last year. I had the Bucs dead last this time last year. Todd Bowles was coming off of an under-performing season with a poor track record before that in New York. Dave Canales was a complete unknown as an offensive coordinator and special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong was, well…Keith Armstrong. Fast forward to present day and Bowles took a team expected to be bad by many and got them to a competitive showing in the NFC Divisional Round.
The en vogue trend in the NFL with regards to head coaching choices is to find a young and innovative offensive mind. Defensive-minded coaches are thought of less of because it is a more volatile aspect of the game. But I believe this is a little too dismissive of the value of a defensive head coach. This is an area of the game I am coming around on myself.
I still see the value of an offensive mind in place at the top of the coaching depth chart, but I can’t help but wonder if we are missing on Bowles’ “vibes.” Some of the best coaches in history have been more culture than X’s and O’s. The current poster boy for this is Dan Campbell in Detroit. Other successful culture-builders are the Harbaugh brothers. John Harbaugh turned the 49ers around quickly in the early 2010s and got them to a Super Bowl only to lose to Jim Harbaugh and the Ravens, who consistently have one of the best teams in the NFL.
Just about every player who has come through the Bucs organization has had nothing but rave reviews for Bowles as a leader and culture-builder. And as Ben Solak recently said in his own article ranking coaching staffs throughout the NFL said, “At its core, coaching is an exercise in maximization.” If you need any evidence as to how Bowles is able to maximize his team look no further than his opening speech to his players that the team posted to their X account.
“The expectation for us shouldn’t be just the division. It’s got to be the Super Bowl.”
Coach Bowles addresses the team ahead of Training Camp tomorrow 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/2Rcm2Sy6Mv
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) July 24, 2024
Furthermore, where other defensive coordinators have shown that without elite pass rush talent their systems tend to falter, Bowles has proven time and again he can maintain an effective defensive unit without star talent on the edge. He, Brian Flores and Bill Belichick seem to be the only coaches who have figured that out. Plus, in the back half of 2023 Bowles seemingly figured how to properly assess when to go for it on fourth down which bodes well for his future prospects.
With all of the fanfare offensive rookies Jalen McMillan, Graham Barton, Bucky Irving and Elijah Klein have elicited from the Bucs fan base, no one may be getting quite the flowers that offensive coordinator Liam Coen has in Tampa Bay. Coen has not called plays in the NFL for more than a few games in Los Angeles at the end of the 2022 season, but has some experience at a major college program running the offense at Kentucky in 2021 and 2023.
Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
His first run in the SEC was wildly successful as he turned Will Levis into a first-round caliber talent at quarterback. In 2023, with a less talented roster, he had a much more ho-hum result. And the year he was given the offensive coordinator title with the Rams (2022) was Los Angeles’ worst offensive season in the Sean McVay era – mostly due to injuries to quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp.
The system he is employing should align well with the roster he is leading, and Coen has as good of a resume as a first-time NFL play-caller can have. His preseason results have been exciting as the Bucs run game looks miles better than what Dave Canales was able to generate in 2023.
Co-defensive coordinators Kacy Rodgers and Larry Foote return working under Bowles, who will call plays. The Bucs defense has continually ranked in the top 5-10 as a run defense unit since Bowles arrived in Tampa in 2019. The pass defense is the more volatile aspect of the game. Bowles has shown he can create an elite defense when he has a premier pass rusher, but more impressively he can create a functional unit without one. Trust that by year’s end he will have a top 12-15 unit at minimum while getting there in a frustratingly volatile way.
Thomas McGaughey has led some good special teams units in New York with the Giants where he coached from 2018 to 2023. But his more recent units have been average-to-worse. The best I can say about him is he isn’t Keith Armstrong…
2. Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach – Raheem Morris
Offensive Coordinator – Zac Robinson
Defensive Coordinator – Jimmy Lake
Special Teams Coordinator – Marquice Williams
Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: USA Today
Raheem Morris’ path back to a full-time head coach job is one of the most storied and interesting journeys in the NFL. It includes stops in Washington (defensive backs coach), Atlanta (defensive backs coach and defensive pass game coordinator, wide receivers coach and pass game coordinator, defensive coordinator, interim head coach), and Los Angeles Rams (defensive coordinator). There are so few coaches in the modern NFL who can lay claim to having coached on both sides of the ball, and Morris is one.
He has also proven that he is a chameleon of a defensive coordinator. Back in his Bucs days he was still a Monte Kiffin Tampa-2 disciple. During his time in Atlanta, he worked under Dan Quinn in a Cover-3 style defense. But when he got to Los Angeles McVay asked him to continue the quarters-heavy approach that Brandon Staley had employed prior to Morris’ arrival. He thrived at the helm of all three schemes, proving he is a chameleon that can tailor a system to the players he has rather than trying to push his preferred scheme on a group that it might not work best for.
What is most impressive with Morris is how he was able to get the most out of a defense last year that featured just one star (All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald), a couple of promising players, and a lot of journeymen. The Rams had a solid defense that was able to live up to their playoff appearance.
Working directly with Morris on defense is Jimmy Lake. Lake has experience as a play-caller in at the collegiate level where he was a coordinator and head coach at the University of Washington, and experience as a position coach in the NFL with stops in Tampa Bay and Detroit. Lake has a strong resume and will help implement whatever style of defense Morris decides to implement.
Robinson has spent the entirety of his four-year coaching career in Los Angeles with Sean McVay. I don’t know of any great way to parse Robinson from Liam Coen given how much they have worked together and that they will be using a similar system. The tiebreaker I came up with is Robinson worked under Coen, so I give Coen the nod as the greater of the two for now. Plus Coen called plays for two years at Kentucky. But I foresee Robinson hitting the ground running (no pun intended).
Marquice Williams is a holdover from Arthur Smith’s staff. The fact that Morris kept him on speaks to his effectiveness. He has fielded some good units over his three years in the position.
3. New Orleans Saints
Head Coach – Dennis Allen
Offensive Coordinator – Klint Kubiak
Defensive Coordinator – Joe Woods
Special Teams Coordinator – Darren Rizzi
Saints head coach Dennis Allen – Photo by: USA Today
Most likely no one in the NFL has a hotter seat as a head coach than Dennis Allen. The Saints seem to regress each season since the departures of Sean Payton and Drew Brees, and Allen has been the leader over that entire time period. A stereotypical defensive coach, he consistently has his defensive units playing hard and ranking well while the offense has sputtered.
Allen has done his team no favors as an in-game decision-maker, eschewing opportunities to press an edge and keep the ball, he prefers to play it safe and hope his aging defense can hold the line. More often than not they cannot. And Allen has zero track record of success as an NFL head coach. He did not succeed in Oakland and he has faltered thus far in New Orleans.
Allen should be given credit for at least attempting to modernize his offense as he brought in Klint Kubiak to try and fix Derek Carr and Co. Kubiak is fresh off a season serving as passing game coordinator for the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. He is also the only offensive coordinator in the division with any NFL play calling experience (the Panthers’ play-calling duties will be handled by head coach Dave Canales).
Kubiak led a 2021 Vikings team that ranked 12th in total yards, 24th in points and 21st in EPA/play. Since then, Kubiak has studied at the feet of the ultimate offensive master in Shanahan. He gets my highest offensive rating of the group. Debate a wall.
Joe Woods will work with Allen, who like Todd Bowles and Raheem Morris – in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, respectively – will call plays for the Saints. To his credit, Allen consistently fields top-tier defenses that play tough and are uber-competitive. Even in what many might consider a “down” year, last year the Saints ranked 13th in yards allowed and third in EPA/play allowed. The Woods/Allen combo shouldn’t be underestimated.
One area that the Saints consistently excel in is special teams where Darren Rizzi continues to be one of the top specialist coordinators in the NFL. He fields assignment-sound units that cover kicks and punts well. The Saints rank at the top of the division in this area.
4. Carolina Panthers
Head Coach – Dave Canales
Offensive Coordinator – Brad Idzik
Defensive Coordinator – Ejiro Evero
Special Teams Coordinator – Tracy Smith
Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo by: Mark Konezny/USA Today
Canales has had a meteoric rise over the past 18 months. Moving from a quarterbacks coach who got the most out of Geno Smith to the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay he had a high variance 2023 season with the Bucs. Overall, he managed an offense that was seventh in pass efficiency but 27th in run efficiency.
More impressively, for the second consecutive year he showed he could help a quarterback turn their career around. The Panthers are banking on him going three-for-three in that department with Bryce Young. By all accounts Canales should help bring a new culture to Carolina as he implements his “bully optimist” mentality.
Canales’ offense may not have been the runaway freight train that has spring-boarded other coordinators to head coach positions, but he embodies a lot of CEO-style traits, that combined with his offense-centric background, give him a strong base from which to succeed. But in the end, he is still a rookie head coach, and as such I have him ranked last in the division (but with an eyes emoji next to his name).
Brad Idzik did well with the Bucs receiver room last year. Mike Evans had a renaissance year while Chris Godwin was still productive despite moving away from the comfy confines of the slot. Trey Palmer and Rakim Jarrett both had good seasons for their draft positions (or non-draft position as it were for Jarrett). He now moves into a coordinator role without play-calling duties. Canales was transparent last year that Idzik had a heavy hand in game-plan duties. He was responsible for the Bucs’ third down packages and the team ranked sixth in conversion rate. This should represent a smooth transition for him.
Canales was able to keep defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in place after he kept the Panthers defense playing hard and well in an otherwise throwaway season. In his first season as a DC in 2022, he led the Broncos to a seventh-place ranking in yards allowed and 14th place showing in scoring defense. Last year he improved the yards allowed rank to fourth, but the points allowed rank fell to 29th. That scoring defense rank shouldn’t be seen as much of a reflection on Evero as the Panthers offense put the defense in some really tough spots throughout the year. In their last game of the season his defense was able to slow a Bucs offense that had been rolling in the back half of the season to just nine points.
Tracy Smith has some experience as a special teams coordinator having served in the position in 2020 with the Texans. They were a middle-of-the-pack unit that year. From 2021-2023 he was the assistant special teams coordinator with the Seahawks and the team improved in each consecutive year he was there. I wouldn’t be surprised if this unit is one of the highlights of the Panthers this year.
