FAB 3. Sneak Peak At What Bucs’ 2021 Season May Look Like

Most Americans will agree that the year 2020 has already been one of the worst years on record in recent memory – largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic that caused the loss of millions around the world, including over 100,000 deaths in America. The coronavirus caused the shut down of this country back in March, which affected the nation’s economy, hurting virtually all businesses and causing millions of Americans to lose their jobs or take pay cuts.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and teammates work out – Photo from Kevin O’Donnell/FOX 13

NBA superstar Kobe Bryant, congressman and civil rights icon John Lewis, actress Kelly Preston, who was the wife of John Travolta, former NFL wide receiver Reche Caldwell, country music legends Charlie Daniels and Kenny Rogers, former Utah Jazz coach Jerry Sloan, comedic actor Jerry Stiller and pop music legend Little Richard are among the celebrities that we’ve lost so far in 2020.

The college basketball season ended without March Madness or a national champion, and the NBA and NHL seasons were abruptly halted for four months and will resume with an abbreviated postseason in August. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed the start to Major League Baseball and forced a truncated season, eliminated the NFL offseason mini-camps and OTAs and forced The Masters to be pushed back to the fall.

Pro sports are slated to return – albeit to empty or partially full stadiums – while college football may or may not start on time, as there are some in the collegiate world that are pondering spring football rather than playing games during the fall while COVID-19 is still present in this country. In Tampa Bay there is a particular sadness over the fact that Bucs fans won’t be able to attend training camp to see new additions Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, nor will most be able to even purchase a ticket to watch that dynamic duo in action during the 2020 season as Raymond James Stadium will likely be filled to just 25 percent capacity at most.

That is just 16,500 fans – if it happens – out of a possible 65,890 fans that most certainly would have seen every game this season. The Bucs – and their fans – have waited over a decade for enough excitement to build to return to sold out games on a regular basis. That would have happened this year if not for the coronavirus. Talk about horrible timing.

And there is some concern that with the NFL games always taking place during the fall, that the combination of flu season combined with COVID-19 could cause the league to have to abruptly end the 2020 season if cases begin to rise across the country and the death rate climbs back to levels it reached back in March and April.

Photo by: Getty Images

Couple all of this with a politically divided nation facing a very important presidential election on November 3, and I can see why the phrase “Can we just fast forward to 2021?” has been uttered plenty of times by plenty of Americans from all walks of life across many social media platforms this year.

So as the Bucs rookies, quarterbacks and injured players from 2019 are reporting to team headquarters this week for COVID-19 testing, with the veterans expected to do the same on Tuesday, July 28, let’s do just that.

Let’s skip ahead to take a sneak peak at what 2021 may look like for the Buccaneers.

The 2021 Season

The NFL is supposed to begin playing 17 regular season games in 2021 with the thinking that the league would only play three preseason games. But with the NFL and the NFL Players Association mutually agreeing to cancel all preseason games with the COVID-19 pandemic, will there even be a preseason at all in 2021?

I hope not.

NFL teams have liked the revenue the preseason generates from TV contracts, ticket sales and concession, merchandise and parking revenue – even with low attendance. But veteran players don’t like it because the games don’t count and there is a further risk of injury playing in a meaningless game.

Fans don’t like the preseason games, especially season ticket holders as they have to pay full price for exhibition games, and the league has games on Thursday and Friday nights, which interrupts the lives of many working adults.

Bucs TE Tanner Hudson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The only people who genuinely like preseason games aside from the owners are the team’s scouts and personnel departments and the undrafted free agents trying to make the 55-man roster.

So what I think may happen is that the teams will learn to live without the preseason games, and they will go to the NFLPA with a proposal to increase the regular season to 18 games starting in 2021 in exchange for doing away with the preseason forever. As it stands, the 17-game schedule is very unfair because half the league will play eight games and nine away games, while the other half will enjoy nine home games and only have to travel eight times during the season.

Going to an 18-game season, which is what the NFL owners have wanted for some time, would create more fair schedules for the entire league and result in greater attendance than the tens of thousands of empty seats across the league during meaningless preseason games.

I’m not saying that the NFL will go to 18 games in 2021, but the abandonment of the preseason in 2020, coupled with the expected loss of between $100 – $150 million for each NFL team due to lost ticket revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic will prompt the league and the NFLPA to look for ways to increase revenue in 2021. Having an extra regular season game will do just that.

The 2021 Opponents

Tampa Bay is slated to play the NFC East and the AFC East in 2021, in addition to its regular foes twice a year in the NFC South – Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans.

Trips to Philadelphia and Washington are on tap for next year, with a marquee game against Dallas, as well as the New York Giants taking place at home.

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

The biggest game will be Tampa Bay’s trip to New England where Brady and Gronkowski will square off against their former team and head coach Bill Belichick. The Bucs will also travel to New York to face the Jets, and will host Miami and Buffalo.

The two remaining games on the schedule right now are opponents from the NFC North and the NFC West. Those foes will be determined by the order of finish by the Bucs as well as those teams in those divisions. If Tampa Bay finishes second in the NFC South in 2020, it will play the corresponding second-place teams in the NFC North and NFC West divisions.

As of right now, it is unknown where the Bucs’ 17th – or perhaps 18th – opponent might come from. Then again, if the league goes to an 18-game schedule next year it could scrap the current scheduling system and come out with revamped version.

The 2021 Salary Cap

As I reported in my SR’s Fab 5 column three weeks ago, the NFL is looking at taking a massive loss in stadium revenue (ticket sales, concessions, parking, merchandise) due to the lack of attendance at NFL games this season. That will greatly impact the 2021 salary, which affects all teams.

There are two ways the league could go in 2021. The first would be a flat cap, which would keep the salary cap at the current $198.2 million level in 2021 and then spread out the projected decrease, which could be anywhere from $20 million, which is the conservative estimate, to $40 million, over the next four years instead of having the annual $10 million salary cap increases that the league and the NFLPA has enjoyed in recent years.

Bucs director of football administration Mike Greenberg and Ronde Barber – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The second way to attack this problem would be for the league and the NFLPA to take their medicine with a big cap decrease in 2021 instead of spreading it out over four years. If that happens it would send the league back to a salary cap at the 2016 level.

NFL Salary Cap – Last 5 Years
2016: $155.27 million
2017: $167 million
2018: $177.2 million
2019: $188.2 million
2020: $198.2 million

The Bucs have just $4,873,799 million in salary cap room for the upcoming 2020 season, and are already tight on next year’s cap if the 2021 cap falls to around $158.2 million.

The Bucs have just 45 players under contract for next season, and have already committed $151,882,587 to those players. That would leave $6,117,413 left to not only sign draft picks in 2021, but also add free agents.

Keep in mind that $151,882,587 cap figure does not include some several important starters, including outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, inside linebacker Lavonte David, wide receiver Chris Godwin, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and Gronkowski. All of those players are pending free agents in 2021, including some key reserves like offensive linemen Joe Haeg and Josh Wells, defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches, tight end Antony Auclair, linebacker Kevin Minter, cornerback and special teams ace Ryan Smith, backup quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin and safeties Andrew Adams and Justin Evans.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo By: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Under this problematic scenario, Bucs general manager Jason Licht and director of football administration Mike Greenberg would have to go to multiple players for restructuring to free up much-needed salary cap space in 2021. The problem is that Tampa Bay only has six players under contract next year that are poised to make $10 million or more, so there isn’t much cap room to recoup.

Here is a list of the Top 10 highest paid Buccaneers in 2021:

QB Tom Brady – $25,000,000
WR Mike Evans – $13,450,000
LT Donovan Smith – $14,250,000
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul – $12,500,000
LG Ali Marpet – $10,650,000
C Ryan Jensen – $10,000,000
ILB Devin White – $8,170,223
TE Cameron Brate – $6,500,000
DE Will Gholston – $5,500,000
DT Vita Vea – $4,716,803

The contracts for Smith, Jensen, Brate and Gholston total $35,450,000 and the good news is that they could be released without any dead salary cap room for Tampa Bay. But in doing so, the Bucs would have to find a new starting left tackle, a starting center and a starting defensive lineman, in addition to trying to re-sign the likes of Barrett, Godwin, David and Gronkowski.

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski – Photo by: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs aren’t the only team in this leaky boat. Most NFL teams around the league will have to make some very hard decisions, and league insiders believe that several high profile players will be cut as a result. With a reduced salary cap in 2021, the players would have to take less money to sign elsewhere and it could slam the brakes on salary growth for players, which the owners wouldn’t mind at all.

So that’s what could be in store for Tampa Bay and the rest of the league in 2021. Now let’s hope the Bucs and the NFL can actually get through the entire 2020 season first.