FAB 3. BUCS WERE WISE TO DRAFT SMITH AND MARPET WHEN THEY DID
One of the lessons I’ve learned about the NFL Draft over my 22 years of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is to draft to the strength of the draft. Former Bucs G.M. Rich McKay taught me that.

When a position is particularly strong in the draft, indulge and take advantage of that position whether it’s a particular need or not. It’s part of the “best available player” strategy that oftentimes works much better than drafting for need.

That’s what current Bucs general manager Jason Licht did with his first-ever draft choice, selecting wide receiver Mike Evans with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. Evans was the second of five wide receivers drafted in the first round that year – behind Sammy Watkins, who went to Buffalo at No. 4, and ahead of Odell Beckham, who was chosen by the New York Giants at No. 12.

Drafting isn’t an exact science. It’s part educated guess and part crapshoot.

The teams that do it well consistently make the playoffs.

The teams that don’t do it well consistently pick in the top 10.

Bucs CB Vernon Hargreaves III, GM Jason Licht and HC Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch

For years the Bucs didn’t do it well, but upon Licht’s arrival, they’ve taken advantage of three years worth of high draft picks to stockpile some real talent, including Evans, franchise quarterback Jameis Winston, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III in the first round among other hits in the second round and beyond.

Good NFL front offices don’t just look at each draft separately. The good ones look at the draft as part of a whole when devising the blueprint for building their teams. That means not just looking at this year’s crop of likely draft picks, but also looking at what positions might be heavy or light in the years to come and drafting accordingly.

Wide receiver wasn’t the only position that was loaded in 2014. So was the offensive line, which featured five linemen in the top 19, including three offensive tackles – Los Angeles’ Greg Robinson, Atlanta’s Jake Matthews and Tennessee’s Taylor Lewan in the top 11.

The offensive line was even more loaded in 2013 with offensive tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel going first and second overall to Kansas City and Jacksonville, respectively, followed by tackle Lane Johnson to Philadelphia with the fourth overall pick. Guards Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack went to Arizona at No. 7 and Tennessee at No. 10, respectively, meaning that half of the top 10 picks were along the O-line that year. Four more offensive linemen were drafted in the first round outside of the top 10 that year.

Six more offensive linemen were drafted in the first round in 2015, so it was inevitable that the well would eventually run dry. With that inevitability looming, Licht and the personnel department wisely spent a pair of second-round picks on left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Ali Marpet in 2015 after selecting Winston in the first round. The plan was to start Smith and Marpet right away with Winston so the three top offensive selections could grow and gain experience together.

Bucs RG Ali Marpet – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter was asked about the Pro Bowl potential that Marpet and Smith possess.

“I’m really not qualified to say about the top-level caliber and Pro Bowl voting because I know zero about it, I don’t know one thing about Pro Bowl voting, as far as following it or where it is or anything like that,” Koetter said. “I’ll say we’re happy with both those guys, we’re glad they’re on our team. I don’t get a chance to study every guard and tackle in the league. I think as a coach, you’re always hardest on the players that you coach. Your guys, you beat your guys up the most, you’re trying to get the most out of them and we’re constantly trying to develop both those guys – all of our players, but those two [as well]. But there might be five guys out there having great years that I haven’t seen one snap of, [with] teams we don’t come across. We’re happy with those two guys, but I’m not putting it in Pro Bowl perspective, I really am not qualified.”

Marpet has garnered praise around the NFL for his run blocking and many of the league’s talent evaluators and media members believe it’s only a matter of time before he makes the Pro Bowl. Smith, who was a junior when he entered the draft, likely would have been a first-rounder in 2016. While he needs to be more consistent, especially in pass protection, Smith has become a dominant run blocker.

“Well, when you ask about Donovan and Ali, it’s like Jameis – those guys have played 28 games in their career,” Koetter said. “Ali, less than that, but Donovan and Jameis every snap over the first year and 12 games. Left tackle is like quarterback – experience. Just experience, different looks, going against different guys.

“Donovan’s going against an elite pass rusher pretty much every week and these guys all have different moves. He’s learning from them, he’s learning how to shut different guys down. Really the sky’s the limit for Donovan. He’s a huge, powerful, athletic, talented, smart guy and he’s got a very bright future. He’s got to just continue working at it. As important as he makes it, he’s going to continue to improve.”

Bucs LT Donovan Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Smith had a good rookie season, shutting out the likes of New York’s Jason Pierre-Paul, Dallas’ Greg Hardy and Houston’s J.J. Watt, who was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2015. Good left tackles are hard to find, and Smith has played better than the likes of top 5 offensive linemen like Joeckel, Robinson and even Fisher at times.

More importantly, the Bucs have found a starting left tackle and a starting right guard when they did. After two consecutive offensive-laden drafts, Licht and the Bucs had to address the defensive side of the ball in 2016, which may be the last good year for offensive linemen in a while.

A total of six offensive linemen were drafted in the first round this year. That won’t be the case in 2017, which is projected to be a terrible year for offensive line prospects. In fact, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has only one offensive lineman projected to go in the first round. That’s Wisconsin offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who is his 30th-ranked prospect.

Scan the Internet and the highest you’ll find an offensive lineman in any mock draft is Alabama offensive tackle Cam Robinson, who checks in at No. 14 on NFLDraftScout.com’s list with Ramczyk at No. 20. Robinson is rated at No. 40 on Miller’s board.

Other offensive linemen that could sneak into the first round are Notre Dame offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson and Indiana guard Dan Feeney – but all would likely be outside the top 20. That’s not to say that the Bucs or other NFL teams won’t find some talented linemen in 2017. After all, Smith and Marpet were second-round picks, while starting left guard Kevin Pamphile was Licht’s first-ever offensive line selection as a sixth-round pick in 2014.

But instead of having to reach for offensive line help in the first round in 2017, Licht can rest easier knowing that he played to the strength of the draft in 2015 by stockpiling two starting O-linemen. That allows Licht and the Bucs to once again play to the strength of the draft next April and target defensive end, cornerback and wide receiver instead.

Western Michigan WR Corey Davis – Photo by: Getty Images

Edge rushers and defensive ends that could carry a first-round draft grade include: Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, Alabama’s Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams, Tennessee’s Derek Barnett, UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley, Missouri’s Charles Harris, Stanford’s Solomon Thomas, Michigan’s Taco Charlton, Florida State’s DeMarcus Walker and Illinois’ Dawuane Smoot and Carroll Phillips.

Potential first-round cornerbacks include: Florida’s Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor, Alabama’s Marlon Humphrey, Washington’s Sidney Jones, USC’s Adoreé Jackson, Ohio State’s Gareon Conley and Marshon Lattimore, Iowa’s Desmond King and LSU’s Tre’Davious White.

Possible first-round receivers include: Western Michigan’s Corey Davis, Washington’s John Ross, Clemson’s Mike Williams, USC’s JuJu Smith-Schuster, Oklahoma’s Dede Westbrook and SMU’s Courtland Sutton.

Licht and the Bucs may consider drafting another offensive lineman in the middle to late rounds, as they did with Pamphile back in 2014. But proper planning years ago means Tampa Bay doesn’t have to reach for an offensive lineman in a down year for the position in the 2017 NFL Draft.