FAB 2. Winston’s Turnovers Remain A Huge Concern

In Jameis Winston’s first year in Bruce Arians’ offense, the fifth-year quarterback is on pace to shatter Tampa Bay records with 4,736 yards and 32 touchdowns. Winston set franchise records with 4,090 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2016.

But the problem for the 2-5 Buccaneers is that turnovers and self-inflicted wounds are killing this team – and Winston is leading the way. Tampa Bay’s former first-round pick in 2015 is also on pace to set dubious personal bests with 27 interceptions and 18 fumbles. Winston threw a career-high 18 interceptions in 16 games in 2016, and had a career-high 15 fumbles the next year in 2017.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

Since entering the league in 2015, Winston has more turnovers than any other quarterback with 91. Of course not all of them are his fault, as missed blocks by offensive linemen, tight ends and blocking backs help cause hits that lead to forced fumbles, and sometimes receivers don’t run the right routes or don’t fight for 50-50 balls.

So let’s take away 25 – nearly a quarter of Winston’s turnovers. Guess what? He still has the most of any starting quarterback in the league over the last five years, and that’s unacceptable.

Through seven games this year, Winston has passed for 2,072 yards with 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Not helping matters is the fact that Winston has already been sacked 28 times. Winston was sacked 35 times in 16 games in 2016, and is on pace to be sacked an astounding 64 times this year if the O-line, tight ends and blocking backs keep allowing four sacks per game.

Oh, and by the way, Winston is in a critical fifth-year option and the 2019 season was supposed to be a make-or-break season for the 25-year old gunslinger.

No pressure.

Is there any objective way to suggest that Winston is on his way to earn a long-term contract extension if he throws for 4,736 yards with 32 touchdowns and 27 interceptions along with 64 sacks and 18 fumbles?

No way. Absolutely not.

Not for a turnover machine on his way to committing a personal high 45 turnovers this season.

There is a lot to like about Winston.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

He’s highly competitive. He has a burning desire to win and be great. 

Winston is a great leader who is loved by his teammates and respected by his coaches.

He does a lot of community work and cares about kids, evidenced by his work with his Dream Forever foundation. I’ve defended the guy quite a bit and with good reason.

Winston can make some amazing plays and light up the scoreboard – and he can also break your heart with some stunningly bad decisions.

Play at the quarterback position in the NFL – or really at any level – can be summed up into two things: making plays and avoiding turnovers.

Let’s look at the gold standard in the NFL – the elite quarterbacks, the type of passers that the Bucs expected Winston to become when they made him the first overall selection in 2015.

New England’s Tom Brady has thrown 530 touchdowns and 175 interceptions in his career and has a 5.5 percent TD rate and 1.8 percent INT rate.

New Orleans’ Drew Brees has thrown 525 touchdowns and 236 interceptions in his career with a 5.3 percent TD rate and a 2.4 percent INT rate.

Saints QB Drew Brees – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has thrown 354 touchdowns and just 82 interceptions in his career with a 6.1 percent TD rate and 1.4 percent INT rate.

In his first two years in the league, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, who was last year’s league MVP, has thrown 65 touchdowns and 14 interceptions with a 7.6 percent TD rate and a 1.6 percent INT rate.

So you see the benchmarks for elite QBs, right? Having a TD percentage rate of about 5.3 percent and an INT rate no higher than 2.4 percent.

Through his five-year career, Winston has a 4.7 percent TD rate, which is pretty good, but his 3.2 percent INT rate is the highest in the league over the last five years. Last year in 11 games, Winston’s INT percentage rate was a career-high 3.7. This year in seven games, it’s swelled to 4.6 percent. Only Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield’s 5.2 percent is higher among starting quarterbacks.

To put these numbers in perspective, former Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles threw 75 interceptions in his career and had a 2.8 percent INT percentage. New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning has a career interception percentage of 3.0 percent with his 241 picks.

So did the Bucs draft the wrong quarterback in 2015? Should Tampa Bay have selected Marcus Mariota instead?

Titans QB Marcus Mariota – Getty Images

Turnovers haven’t necessarily doomed Mariota’s time in Tennessee, as he has only 44 interceptions – 26 fewer than Winston’s 70. It’s mostly been the lack of pocket presence and play-making ability that got Mariota benched. Winston has 102 TD passes to Mariota’s 76 – 26 more scoring strikes.

Yet Winston hasn’t been great in the pocket, either. He’s been sacked 150 times with 46 fumbles, while Mariota has been sacked 155 times with 33 fumbles.

Mariota has a 4.3 percent TD rate, which is slightly lower than Winston’s 4.7, but also has a 2.5 percent INT rate, which is much lower than Winston’s 3.2 percent INT rate.

So what about some of the other quarterbacks that Arians has coached in his career?

From 2007-11, Arians was Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator and saw Ben Roethlisberger throw 113 touchdowns and 57 interceptions with a 5 percent TD rate and 2.5 percent INT rate during that span.

Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck threw 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions as a rookie in 2012 and made the Pro Bowl during a season in which Arians was named NFL Head Coach of the Year for filling in for Chuck Pagano, who was diagnosed with leukemia. Luck had a 3.7 percent TD rate and a 2.9 percent INT rate that year, and went on to become a QB with a 5.2 percent TD rate and a 2.5 percent INT rate during his six years with the Colts.

New Bucs head coach Bruce Arians and former Cardinals QB Carson Palmer – Photo by: Getty Images

Arizona’s Carson Palmer threw 105 touchdowns and 57 interceptions with the Cardinals under Arians from 2013-17, and had a 4.8 percent TD rate and a 2.6 percent INT rate.

Buccaneers fans were hoping that Arians, who has a reputation for being “the quarterback whisperer” and even wrote a book with that same title, would be the coach to turn Winston’s game around and finally limit his turnovers. We’re nearing the halfway point of the season and that certainly hasn’t happened yet.

Winston’s 5.3 percent TD rate this year under Arians is something to get excited about – but only if the turnovers stop. Winston can’t throw an interception for every touchdown that he’s tossed, and that’s essentially what has happened in the first seven games of the 2019 campaign.

It’s bad enough that Winston has a 3.2 percent career interception rate, but his 4.6 percent INT rate this season is a sign that he’s not making the kind of improvement that is necessary to have him continue as Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback beyond this year. Barring a stunning, second-half turnaround that comes with a winning record over the final nine games and far fewer mistakes from Winston, the Bucs will be looking for a new QB in 2020.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson – Photo by: Getty Images

That type of turnaround from Winston must begin immediately – this week in Seattle against Seahawks Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson, who has thrown 17 passes and just one interception this season. With a gaudy 6.8 percent TD rate and a league-low 0.4 percent INT rate, those numbers are certainly the envy of all Buccaneers fans.